House prices must be kept up at all costs

Mr.Brown_4

brit1234 wrote: »

house prices in Japan didnot rise for 20 years after there crash...

Yes but Brit.. the UK is an island. We are not building any more land. So comparison with Japan a bit off there matey.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

brit1234 wrote: »

Yeah right, the crash is still on or have you not noticed the halifax nationwide figures leveling out or starting to fall.

Crash ended 10 months ago. Everyone, bears and bulls alike, predicted falls over winter. The fact that they are smaller than anyone expected is just more proof the market is recovering.

You are bragging about increases at a period when interest rates were slashed 4.5% to 0.5%, QE, VAT cut, stamp dutyt holiday.

WHere can I get one of these 0.5% mortgages Brit? New lending is all that counts for prices, and you know full well it's not at 0.5%.

VAT's back up. Shops are full, world didn't end. Stamp duty holiday had little impact. Someone buying a 200K house doesn't care about spending a few K on stamp duty.

Is that really signs of sustainable growth, now this stimulas is gone and NI is increases?

Ooooh, a half percent on NI. That'll crash the market. (Not)

As I said early repossession rose through your wonder 2009 and are still rising. Unemployment is rising still as well.

Exactly my point. Unemployment rose, reposessions rose, and house prices rose by 10% in just 10 months.

There is no other explanation for it, if not supply and demand.

Its a myth of supply and demand, house prices in Japan did not rise for 20 years after there crash and they had one of these so called shortages of housing supply.

Do you have any idea how far up Japanese prices rose in their bubble? Japan is a unique situation, more comparable to the areas of China where house prices are currently 80 times average income.

All we have here is people reluctant or unable to sell due to negative equity not a shortage of houses. As rates go up forced sales will increase further and foriegn investment will shrink.

Rates will not rise to 2007 levels for a decade or more. And people could afford those rates in 2007. They can afford them today.

BTW, increased rates would increase the flow of capital to the UK, not decrease it, but it would cripple exports from the UK, and spending in other sectors of the economy, which is why it won't happen.

Come on Hamish talk about the issues.

I'd love to, instead of having to demolish those same old tired, trite, hpc myths that you keep repeating, and that have been so completely and utterly discredited.

But you never bring up the real issues.

Mr.Brown_4

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But you never bring up the real issues.

I think, having spent a large part of my life overseas serving the country, that I am well placed to talk about the real issues Mr. McTavish. Lessons learnt in Burma and Korea have served me well when I returned to start out on the path to housing riches. Often, as I looked out across the Limboco river, and wondered what new tricks the wops would be playing on us, I would dream of returning to my native Aberdeen and starting a family.

As soon as our military transport touched down I was on the phone to my estate agent. With my pay off for disablement, and a dowry my wife had come up with we were all set for a first purchase. As you know, in Scotland, there is a 5% discount for ex services, and so we soon had our first set of keys in our hands.

What a life! Once on the housing ladder it was like a new world. Not only was it affordable, it rapidly rose, and the next better house was also affordable, and rose and rose in price. Pretty soon we were in a nice hosue, worth a fortune, but could still easily help our children get on the same ladder.

Er, sorry, got to go - wife is asking why I am trying to wind up Hamish on MSE again.

StevieJ

leveller2911 wrote: »

Great post on How to make friends and influence people, just a shame theres no substance to it.....Its called a "Debate forum" for a simple reason......

Very surprised at Stevie J at actually thanking you.Still maybe he meant to hit the quote button instead.......;)

I trust you show the same animosity to posts referring to BTL scum

chucky

stueyhants wrote: »

As an international investor why would you choose UK debt at 5% when you can buy German or US for 6%

chucky wrote: »

that would make the £££ cheaper too. doesn't that also make the UK cheaper to invest in as you can borrow for cheaper than in Germany?

stueyhants wrote: »

Sterling would drop and there would likely be some carry trade (borrow in £ and invest in Euro). Not sure how that would help our problems. Why invest in the UK when you get a better return in other countries.

maybe not invest but borrow - there would be a nice little margin of 1% in favour for the UK lenders. if the margins were 4% that would mean a 100% extra profit on margins.
the alternatives do have their good things

brit1234

Mr.Brown wrote: »

Yes but Brit.. the UK is an island. We are not building any more land. So comparison with Japan a bit off there matey.

So if Japan is not a chain of Islands what is it?

:rotfl::rotfl:

Mr.Brown_4

brit1234 wrote: »

So if Japan is not a chain of Islands what is it?

Oh that Japan

brit1234

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Crash ended 10 months ago. Everyone, bears and bulls alike, predicted falls over winter. The fact that they are smaller than anyone expected is just more proof the market is recovering.

WHere can I get one of these 0.5% mortgages Brit? New lending is all that counts for prices, and you know full well it's not at 0.5%.

VAT's back up. Shops are full, world didn't end. Stamp duty holiday had little impact. Someone buying a 200K house doesn't care about spending a few K on stamp duty.

Ooooh, a half percent on NI. That'll crash the market. (Not)

Exactly my point. Unemployment rose, reposessions rose, and house prices rose by 10% in just 10 months.

There is no other explanation for it, if not supply and demand.

Do you have any idea how far up Japanese prices rose in their bubble? Japan is a unique situation, more comparable to the areas of China where house prices are currently 80 times average income.

Rates will not rise to 2007 levels for a decade or more. And people could afford those rates in 2007. They can afford them today.

BTW, increased rates would increase the flow of capital to the UK, not decrease it, but it would cripple exports from the UK, and spending in other sectors of the economy, which is why it won't happen.

I'd love to, instead of having to demolish those same old tired, trite, hpc myths that you keep repeating, and that have been so completely and utterly discredited.

But you never bring up the real issues.

Sorry fail, come back when you can give a logical, backed up and structure argument.

Fail

Cleaver

brit1234 wrote: »

Sorry fail, come back when you can give a logical, backed up and structure argument.

Fail

This honestly makes me think that you are 13 years old.

System

How ironic.

bah, edit: @ brit.