House prices set to crash from this point on

chucky

lemonjelly wrote: »

I'm gonna try & be middle ground dude here...

that's cool - i expected no less

lemonjelly wrote: »

I agree partly with what you've put here chucky. I am very suprised that unemployment hasn't increased by more than 800,000. I think it will increase this year though, for no other reason than a lot of Incapacity benefit claimants will be moved over onto JSA.

it's either because the government have dealt with the situation well or the UK isn't affected as badly as people thought it would. it's got to be one or the other.

either option won't make the doomers happy - because they claim the government have been useless in the last 2 years and that we're in a financial armageddon

lemonjelly wrote: »

However I do think unemployment is going to continue to rise, as a number of sectors appear - to me - to have struggled through to christmas, hoping that the christmas takings will keep them going. I doubt they will be able to go on much longer.

this was said the last christmas and the christmas before that - we'll just have to wait and see.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

chucky wrote: »

this was said the last christmas and the christmas before that - we'll just have to wait and see.

Some of the bears seem to have remarkably short memories.....

Look at this time last year, the list of large companies going out of business was huge. Household names like Woolworths and Zaavi were closing, hundreds of thousands being laid off.

Just a couple of months ago there were numerous threads on hpc predicting another "bloodbath" on the high street after Christmas.

And yet it has failed to materialise, with retail figures actually exceeding 2007 levels, whilst the UK is still in a recession. (well, probably not now with such good economic news, but still)

No matter how they try to spin it, things really are getting better. And not just a little better, but a lot better.

And I don't really see how this can all be "blamed" on QE.... Or how people think things will now crash as QE ends. The BoE estimates it takes 9 months for QE to have a full effect, so the first small batch of QE which started last March/April is only now being felt. And we have another 9 months to go before the most recent batch is felt.

And in the meantime, companies keep recovering, confidence rises, the economy grows, and things keep getting better.

Dan:_4

lemonjelly wrote: »

Or....you might've been made redundant?

Luckly for me, my job is about as secure as you can get.

abaxas

Dan: wrote: »

Luckly for me, my job is about as secure as you can get.

Chief liar at the ministry of truth?

Dan:_4

abaxas wrote: »

Chief liar at the ministry of truth?

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Cannon_Fodder

chucky wrote: »

it's either because the government have dealt with the situation well or the UK isn't affected as badly as people thought it would. it's got to be one or the other.

Isn't there another option?

"The Govt have managed to defer the pain."


VAT is back. Stamp duty is back. Car scrappage runs out next month. Extension of repossession orders to 6 months pushes them back, but only so far. Interest Rates to rise, of course. £10Bn in Public Works brought forward, means a gap is ahead somewhere. Etc, etc.


Granted, the short-term appearance/impact of some of these schemes is positive. But as many people keep asking/stating, if the effects are not sustainable the future could be worse than the present they might have helped, when debt-tackling taxes/cuts are implemented.

Mr.Brown_4

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

Isn't there another option?

"The Govt have managed to defer the pain."

Which might explain why so many people were surprised by the mini recovery last year. A small dip (20%) after years of madness didn't make sense. Prices are still down, but they have only partly moved towards sanity - imo.

Really2

Mr.Brown wrote: »

A small dip (20%) after years of madness didn't make sense.

Is that small dip not the biggest nominal percentage fall in the last 60 years?

To many people had their eyes on nationwide's "real" falls in the 80's/90's.

abaxas

Really2 wrote: »

Is that small dip not the biggest nominal percentage fall in the last 60 years?

To many people had their eyes on nationwide's "real" falls in the 80's/90's.

Having known someone who didnt come out of NE for 10 years, their belief in that index was somewhat hurt :P

Mr.Brown_4

Really2 wrote: »

Is that small dip not the biggest nominal percentage fall in the last 60 years?

Compared to the previous rise in property prices it seemed a small dip to me, certainly not as big as I expected. But a lot of rules changed over the last decade, finishing with the temporary suspension of normality in areas like interest rates.

Maybe, if we return to normal, then so will house prices.