House prices set to crash from this point on

Generali

Pete111 wrote: »

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Way to go with the sweeping generalisation...

Many people in Cities (ie london) only use a car occasionally if at all. Many people will get half decent pay increases in the coming years also (Though of course, others will suffer the flip side)

From my own perspective I live outside a city put probably do under 5000 miles a year. A fuel increase of 20% costs me a couple of hundred quid per annum and believe me that is not going to break the bank - nor would it for most families.

Very good points although it's woth remembering that when you go to the supermarket, the products have been brought to you using oil based products, wrapped in oil based products and even your debit card is made from oil!

Pete111

Generali wrote: »

Very good points although it's woth remembering that when you go to the supermarket, the products have been brought to you using oil based products, wrapped in oil based products and even your debit card is made from oil!

Can't deny that Generali. However the recent proliferation of cheaper supermarkets (Aldi etc) could allow many of those needing to penny pinch a little to keep food costs low if required. Supermarkets are also cutting back on some of the less necessary packaging I think?

Increasing oil cost will increase the cost of living and that's a fact. I just don't think it will do so to the point we all need to join Brit in his bunker in the near future...!

HammerSmashedFace

Pete111 wrote: »

[/B]

Way to go with the sweeping generalisation...

Many people in Cities (ie london) only use a car occasionally if at all. Many people will get half decent pay increases in the coming years also (Though of course, others will suffer the flip side)

From my own perspective I live outside a city put probably do under 5000 miles a year. A fuel increase of 20% costs me a couple of hundred quid per annum and believe me that is not going to break the bank - nor would it for most families.

Fair point, but fuel inflation will work itself into every nook and cranny in the economy, including food and heating, unless of course you are cold blooded and don't need to eat.:D

So yep, I accept the 'sweeping generalisation' comment, but in this case it is true. Just because you don't drive much doesn't mean anything really, everything you buy in a shop comes on a truck and uses fuel to manufacture.

Pete111

abaxas wrote: »

Most people choose that cost by buying a more expensive car.

Take for example we run a 1.2 polo and an audi a3 diesel.

The total running costs + petrol for 100,000 miles in the polo is about the same as the purchase cost of the a3.

Obviously the audi is more comfortable but as a means of transport it's expensive.

An excellent point. My car struggles to get 30mpg. Many easily get 40+ these days so fuel price increases have a reduced effect for those who prioritise economy and are prepared to amend their driving style also

I heard that average motorway speeds dropped by over 5MPH during 2007 wheh the oil price was sky high. People still drove, just more fuel efficiently thus reducing the impact.

Pete111

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

Fair point, but fuel inflation will work itself into every nook and cranny in the economy, including food and heating, unless of course you are cold blooded and don't need to eat.:D

So yep, I accept the 'sweeping generalisation' comment, but in this case it is true. Just because you don't drive much doesn't mean anything really, everything you buy in a shop comes on a truck and uses fuel to manufacture.

....So that new movie about the vampires ruling the earth is actually a documentory based on the perils of peak oil?

Didn't see that one coming...:eek:

abaxas

Pete111 wrote: »

My car struggles to get 30mpg. Many easily get 40+ these days so fuel price increases have a reduced effect for those who prioritise economy and are prepared to amend their driving style also

I heard that average motorway speeds dropped by over 5MPH during 2007 wheh the oil price was sky high. People still drove, just more fuel efficiently thus reducing the impact.

Another excellent point.

I can drive that polo at 60-65 on a dual carrageway and get over 50mpg but I choose to fo 70-75 to avareage about 45 mpg.

What gets me is all those range rover sports going 100mph and drinking fuel like an alcoholic in a beer festival. Evil !!!!!!s.

lemonjelly

Dan: wrote: »

It's only 0.5% + I would have had 2 pay rises by then.

Or....you might've been made redundant?

chucky wrote: »

we had 1.6 million unemployed pre-recession we have 800,000 more. that's not a huge amount with the kind of recession we've had/been in.

rates are an interesting one though. the impact is over stated though it won't affect that many people who have mortgages but will definitely affect FTB's - what will hurt people more is the reduction in disposable income and those that are unable to re-mortgage. there's the issue.

I'm gonna try & be middle ground dude here...

I agree partly with what you've put here chucky. I am very suprised that unemployment hasn't increased by more than 800,000. I think it will increase this year though, for no other reason than a lot of Incapacity benefit claimants will be moved over onto JSA.

However I do think unemployment is going to continue to rise, as a number of sectors appear - to me - to have struggled through to christmas, hoping that the christmas takings will keep them going. I doubt they will be able to go on much longer.

A combination of QE being withdrawn, plus rising interest rates will cause a lot of problems for people I think - disposable incomes will shrink (as mr fishbulb has already outlined, non OO's are already seeing their income eaten by inflation). Fuel bills will also cause some to experience difficulty.

I feel consumer spending will reduce this year, & the knock-on effect will be reduced high street activity, and potentially more redundancies.

I don't anticipate a sudden catastrophe, rather a really long hard slog, which will gradually bite more & more as time goes by.

Thing is, we'll adapt, provided it isn't all too sudden.

System

I'll just buy a diesel and offset all the extra cost in about 5 minutes worth of effort.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

everything you buy in a shop comes on a truck and uses fuel to manufacture.

Yes, but the overall increase is miniscule.

If I buy a widget in a shop for a tenner, the chances are that there were 10,000 widgets on the truck that carried them to the shop. And the cost of fuel in the supply channel (design, finance, manufacture, distribution, marketing, retailing) was probably less than 5% of the retail price of the widget.

So a 10% increase in fuel costs still equates to only a 10% of 5% increase. Or half a percent. Which I won't even notice.

Pete111

abaxas wrote: »

Another excellent point.

I can drive that polo at 60-65 on a dual carrageway and get over 50mpg but I choose to fo 70-75 to avareage about 45 mpg.

What gets me is all those range rover sports going 100mph and drinking fuel like an alcoholic in a beer festival. Evil !!!!!!s.

Indeed so

But I doubt owning a Range Rover Sport and driving a bit fast makes you inherently evil. Just a bit of a tool.

On the other hand, them getting 10mpg puts more money into UK PLC's coffers and every little helps!