Housing Shortage Deniers

carolt

Deleted_User wrote: »

For what it's worth, here's Shelter's take on the cause of the housing crisis (they seem to think there IS a housing shortage):

http://england.shelter.org.uk/housing_issues/the_housing_crisis/homes_or_investments

This covers the reasons for the rise in house prices up to 2008.

So I take it that by the same logic, the falls in house prices in 2008 were caused by a huge surge in building? Vast addition to the existing housing stock?

Same in the 90's crash - caused by huge amounts of building of new houses in the 90's?

No????!!

No.

I didn't notice it either.

carolt

Deleted_User wrote: »

OK, this is why I was searching on the Shelter website. Again, for what it's worth, here's what Shelter say about homelessness:

http://england.shelter.org.uk/housing_issues/tackling_homelessness/what_is_homelessness

I'd totally agree that lots of peole live in unsuitable or temporary accomodation. That's precisely why in other threads I've supported the building of more social housing and greater security for private tenants.

But this thread is about the huge supposed pent-up demand caused by lack of places to buy.

The fact is that these virtually-homeless people do not supply any of that demand. They are not, sadly, in a position to buy anywhere - it is a very, very long way from their reality.

Really2

carolt wrote: »

This covers the reasons for the rise in house prices up to 2008.

So I take it that by the same logic, the falls in house prices in 2008 were caused by a huge surge in building? Vast addition to the existing housing stock?

Same in the 90's crash - caused by huge amounts of building of new houses in the 90's?

No????!!

No.

Poor argument there Mrs T.
What about the other points,

a long period of economic growth: average growth was around 2.5 percent for 15 years, increasing incomes and confidence.

low interest rates: this was a significant factor increasing demand for houses, given most UK mortgages have variable rates.

increased availability of mortgages: banks relaxed lending criteria making it easier to borrow higher salary multiples; new types of mortgages were also introduced such as interest-only and 50-year mortgages.

buy-to-let market: more people bought houses to rent out, in the hope they would not only benefit from capital gains but significant rental income too.

All of those were reversed in 07/08. Why did house prices rise in the middle of a recession carol if there is no shortage?

To me it is obvious there is a shortage as house prices should have fallen last year. No shortage would = falls it really is that simple.

[Deleted User]

Yes, as I understand it the reason for the house price increases up to 2008 was largely due to a shortage of housing.

Falls in house prices in 2008 were I think connected to a world recession, although I guess it could be coincidence.

The price increases in 2009 (despite the recession) have been put down to a lack of housing on the market. Again, housing shortage pushes prices up.

But the big concern is that while few people are buying there is no insentive for developers to build new houses. The main cause of the housing crisis (according to Shelter) is a housing shortage yet the recent slowing of the market and reduction of prices has resulted in a complete halt in house building.

carolt

Really2 wrote: »

Poor argument there Mrs T.
What about the other points,


All of those were reversed in 07/08. Why did house prices rise in the middle of a recession carol if there is no shortage?

To me it is obvious there is a shortage as house prices should have fallen last year. No shortage would = falls it really is that simple.

Can't believe you called me Mrs T!!!

I am NOT that woman!!!


I think you're wrong if you think that "All of those were reversed in 07/08" - low interest rates were the cause of the rises in 2009, along with measures to support those facing repossession - any fule knows that had the govt not sat on banks to prevent repossessions, we would have seen numbers far in excess of the early 90's, with the expected knock-on effects on house prices.

It's astonishing that even with the lowest base rates for 400 years, we still only saw annual 'rises' of around 1% - or less, depending whose figures you used.

chucky

carolt wrote: »

I think you're wrong if you think that "All of those were reversed in 07/08" - low interest rates were the cause of the rises in 2009, along with measures to support those facing repossession - any fule knows that had the govt not sat on banks to prevent repossessions, we would have seen numbers far in excess of the early 90's, with the expected knock-on effects on house prices.

It's astonishing that even with the lowest base rates for 400 years, we still only saw 'rises' of around 1% - or less, depending whose figures you used.

it's just not fair is it

carolt

Is it not?

Really2

carolt wrote: »

Can't believe you called me Mrs T!!!

I am NOT that woman!!!


I think you're wrong if you think that "All of those were reversed in 07/08"

Well lets say higher rates got the ball rolling in 07. Sorry never thought of the "Mrs T" link.

bernard_shaw

Deleted_User wrote: »

For what it's worth, here's Shelter's take on the cause of the housing crisis (they seem to think there IS a housing shortage):

http://england.shelter.org.uk/housing_issues/the_housing_crisis/homes_or_investments

For what it's worth, you should read with a little more concentration. Here's the first paragraph on the page you quote:

"As house prices in England tripled between 1997 and 2007, more and more people believed that the prudent way to invest for the future was to buy property.

"But in light of the current property market crisis, it seems that this faith was misguided, and our view of property as a source of wealth and financial security needs to be challenged."

I couldn't agree more, but I'm sure it wasn't the message you were hoping to transmit. When you say "housing crisis", they say "property market crisis".

When you see the word "crisis" you read the word "shortage".

When shelter say on that same page that there is a:
"fundamental shortage of supply" it is in the context of the artificial demand provoked by excess liquidity. What they of course mean to say is:
"A fundamental shortage of housing for sale". This is expanded on the same page where they refer to the need for "more affordable home provision".

Elsewhere, they say that "access to decent housing should not be dictated by the whims of an increasingly volatile property market"

All this is illustrated beautifully with the image on their UK homepage:

http://www.shelter.org.uk/

Remember, according to the Daily Telegraph, there are one million empty homes. The market is failing. That is the crisis, there is no housing shortage - there is a lack of effective demand. Don't confuse 'demand' with 'need'.

StevieJ

[QUOTE=Really2;28698979]Poor argument there Mrs T.
What about the other points,


[/QUOTE]

It's surely not her