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Debate House Prices
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FTB's to struggle until prices rise....
Comments
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Of course a FTB who gets a mortgage now will be paying more than one who got a tracker in 2007. But they are not paying more than they would have done when the FTB first took out the mortgage in 2007.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »But what has happened to the rates of those who bought in 2007 since then..... Hint: the clue is the word "tracker".;)
No matter what happens to base rates, an FTB today is paying more above base than an FTB in 2007. In fact, an FTB on a discounted tracker is paying more than a pre-2007 SVR in most cases.
The difference is huge.
Plus I don't think many FTBs who bought at peak in 2007 would have gone on a variable rate mortgage - they were stretching themselves already.0 -
The effect is much less for those on fixed rates.
Didn't you say in a recent post that most people were on fixed rates???
No, that was someone else.
I am aware that most people now are not.
In 2007, the balance amongst all borrowers was about 60/40 fixed to variable. It is more like 70/30 variable to fixed today, as most borrowers see little reason to remortgage into a fixed rate with base forecast to stay very low for many years.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »You didn't ask a question.
You just went off on yet another anti-Hamish rant, trying to portray my statement of fact as an anti-FTB position, or disparage my motivations without having the faintest clue what they are.
Hamish, you really do give a very consistent impression of being someone who wants FTBs to be priced out, and who is pleased when they are. If that's not how you really feel, then great, I would love to be corrected - please explain the real motivation for your constant "HP are going up hooray" and "FTBs still can't buy" posts. Otherwise, carolt's question stands.Do you know anyone who's bereaved? Point them to https://www.AtaLoss.org which does for bereavement support what MSE does for financial services, providing links to support organisations relevant to the circumstances of the loss & the local area. (Link permitted by forum team)
Tyre performance in the wet deteriorates rapidly below about 3mm tread - change yours when they get dangerous, not just when they are nearly illegal (1.6mm).
Oh, and wear your seatbelt. My kids are only alive because they were wearing theirs when somebody else was driving in wet weather with worn tyres.
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »No, that was someone else.
I am aware that most people now are not.
In 2007, the balance amongst all borrowers was about 60/40 fixed to variable. It is more like 70/30 variable to fixed today, as most borrowers see little reason to remortgage into a fixed rate with base forecast to stay very low for many years.
But we are talking about the benefits for people who took out variables in 2007. Only 40%. Thankyou for confirming my point.0 -
I remember Alan Greenspan had the same advice.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »In 2007, the balance amongst all borrowers was about 60/40 fixed to variable. It is more like 70/30 variable to fixed today, as most borrowers see little reason to remortgage into a fixed rate with base forecast to stay very low for many years.0 -
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If that's not how you really feel, then great, I would love to be corrected - please explain the real motivation for your constant "HP are going up hooray" and "FTBs still can't buy" posts. .
Statements of fact.
It has often been portrayed on here, by a certain faction of particularly aggressive housing bears, that rising prices are bad for society, bad for upsizers, bad for FTB's, and that the crash was the saviour of all. So it did not matter how much misery society endured, how much unemployment, how many reposessions, it was all worth it for lower prices.
It turns out, to nobody's surprise, that these people were largely wrong.
Most upsizers did not benefit. Society did not benefit. And now it turns out most FTB's did not benefit.
The entire bear meme, of "a crash is a good thing for most" turned out to be a complete and utter lie. A hoax. A scam.
Now proof of that is emerging, some people want to misdirect and obfuscate, to hide the truth that they were wrong, that FTB's did not benefit, nor did upsizers, and nor did society.
Well given the vitriol that the more positive posters were subjected to last year, both here and on hpc, I have no intention of letting them get away with these distractions.
What everyone should learn from this, is that a crash benefits almost no-one, whereas rising prices benefit the majority.
It's that simple.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Statements of fact.
It has often been portrayed on here, by a certain faction of particularly aggressive housing bears, that rising prices are bad for society, bad for upsizers, bad for FTB's, and that the crash was the saviour of all. So it did not matter how much misery society endured, how much unemployment, how many reposessions, it was all worth it for lower prices.
It turns out, to nobody's surprise, that these people were largely wrong.
Most upsizers did not benefit. Society did not benefit. And now it turns out most FTB's did not benefit.
The entire bear meme, of "a crash is a good thing for most" turned out to be a complete and utter lie. A hoax. A scam.
Now proof of that is emerging, some people want to misdirect and obfuscate, to hide the truth that they were wrong, that FTB's did not benefit, nor did upsizers, and nor did society.
Well given the vitriol that the more positive posters were subjected to last year, both here and on hpc, I have no intention of letting them get away with these distractions.
What everyone should learn from this, is that a crash benefits almost no-one, whereas rising prices benefit the majority.
It's that simple.
You keep telling yourself the above and one day you will believe it.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Statements of fact.
It has often been portrayed on here, by a certain faction of particularly aggressive housing bears, that rising prices are bad for society, bad for upsizers, bad for FTB's.
All true.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Statements of fact.
and that the crash was the saviour of all. So it did not matter how much misery society endured, how much unemployment, how many reposessions, it was all worth it for lower prices.
History will tell us that this crash was needed. Your problem Hamish is that you see the crash as the evil. It is the decade of easy credit, greediness and lack of regulation that caused all of our problems. Had the housing bubble been prevented we wouldn't have needed a crash.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Statements of fact.
Most upsizers did not benefit. Society did not benefit. And now it turns out most FTB's did not benefit.
I let that go the first time, but this time I'm calling bullsh1t. Link please????HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Statements of fact.
The entire bear meme, of "a crash is a good thing for most" turned out to be a complete and utter lie. A hoax. A scam.
No, it the property Ponzi that is the scam.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »
What everyone should learn from this, is that a crash benefits almost no-one, whereas rising prices benefit the majority.
It's that simple.
So deluded Hamish. Society will benefit from lower prices, you just can't see it yet.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/buying_and_selling/article6979251.ece
Lower prices ensuring less affordable housing is built, and compounding the shortage for FTB's. Who'd have thought it....:rolleyes:
And it seems this crash did not help most FTB's at all, even with existing stock.
The very same drought of mortgage lending that precipitated the drops, also froze FTB's out of the market, with 25% deposits out of reach.
And higher mortgage rates for FTB's are eliminating gains made from lower prices.
So existing homeowners didn't benefit, and it turns out upsizers didn't benefit either as the gap between FTB and 2TB properties actually widened in this particular crash. And now most potential FTB's didn't benefit.
A few STR speculators may have, but only if they sold in 2007, and bought back in last february.
For eveyone else though, it does rather seem to be a bit of a waste of time, really.
Your thread starters and posts are getting longer and more contrived Hamish, I would argue that your posts aren't of a man sitting on his sofa, drinking scotch and laughing as his equity in house/s rises indefinitely........
It is of a man who is worried........., that is my perception and I'm sure many others think the same.0
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