"The Recession" is Still On Track - House prices to fall

HammersFan

Happy New Year Brit. Have you thought of changing the last line of your signature given 6-9% rises in property prices since April 2009?

brit1234

Cleaver wrote: »

When I first came to this site (god, nearly two years ago now) and started reading posts like the one above about unsustainable stuff, bank of mum and dad, cash buyers going etc. etc. it really made me think about stuff, and in a good way. I had my head in the sand about houses to a certain extent and reading posts like that really did change my perception on a lot of things.

But as I say, that was two years ago. Can we have a final date as to when this carnage will hit? I know we originally had 2008 as going to be carnage, then back to 2009, then definately christmas 2009, now it's 2010 after the election... At what point after predicting 'carnage' for years and years do you reassess and question whether 'carnage' is ever going to happen? Booms, busts, corrections, shifts, changes of course. But carnage? People just seem to cope. 'Tis my opinion anyway. I'm not saying everything will be rosey or not get worse, but you can't keep predicting mayhem and then when it doesn't happen just keep saying it will happen at some point.

The stimulas and interest rate cuts put every thing on hold. In effect it delayed it out of 2009. Now its gone 2010 -2011 will be the big years.

2009-2011 are the years of Alt A mortgage maturity the next part of subprime mess, hence another stage of US huge mortgage loses again passed round the world in investment vehicles. Hence more huge loses for banks comming.

Cleaver

brit1234 wrote: »

Its the title of the video if you care to watch, the presenter has been very good over the years at pulling apart the spin.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDhIFRKjYn4

Brit, the guy is just a salesman. Here's his website:

http/www.donharrold.net/

I'm not saying he's wrong, I'm not saying his products aren't great. But you can't say that he is very good at 'pulling apart the spin', when his website's sole aim is to sell dodgy trading stuff. You understand that, right?

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Cleaver

brit1234 wrote: »

The stimulas and interest rate cuts put every thing on hold. In effect it delayed it out of 2009. Now its gone 2010 -2011 will be the big years.

2009-2011 are the years of Alt A mortgage maturity the next part of subprime mess, hence another stage of US huge mortgage loses again passed round the world in investment vehicles. Hence more huge loses for banks comming.

Fair enough. So, if we don't hit 'carnage' by the end of 2011 would you start to re-assess your thoughts and ideologies and maybe change your opinions?

I don't want to judge, but I get the slight impression that you quite like the doom and gloom stuff and if carnage didn't hit by 2011 you'd just find another 'ticking time bomb of doom' that was going to cause the world to end.

Ahh well, this is a moot point for both of us as neither of us really know. I like reading your articles and videos (don't agree with many of them of course) so I hope you keep posting them.

Radiantsoul

Cleaver wrote: »

Brit, the guy is just a salesman. Here's his website:

http/www.donharrold.net/

I'm not saying he's wrong, I'm not saying his products aren't great. But you can't say that he is very good at 'pulling apart the spin', when his website's sole aim is to sell dodgy trading stuff. You understand that, right?

His stuff seems dirt cheap!
Just $50 a month for something that is like a crystal ball. Although now I think about it crystal balls don't actually predict the future at all...

nembot

We know with many billions being pumped into the economy and historically low IR's, any prediction pre these steps would of been wrong.

Whether this has resulted in saving or just delaying the inevitable, nobody knows.

brit1234

Cleaver wrote: »

Fair enough. So, if we don't hit 'carnage' by the end of 2011 would you start to re-assess your thoughts and ideologies and maybe change your opinions?

I don't want to judge, but I get the slight impression that you quite like the doom and gloom stuff and if carnage didn't hit by 2011 you'd just find another 'ticking time bomb of doom' that was going to cause the world to end.

Ahh well, this is a moot point for both of us as neither of us really know. I like reading your articles and videos (don't agree with many of them of course) so I hope you keep posting them.

The world won't end. I'm just into risk analysis in a big way after studying it at university. All I can see is the vulnerabilty being ignored for another day and nothing being done about the root problems. Its the fault of 15 years of govenments round the world, fiance industry and us public. We should of dealt with it back then rather than pass the buck on and keep inflating various assest bubbles. Each tome we pass the buck we make it harder to dal with in the future and suffer more serve effects.

The reason why I want all the doom and gloom out now is to act as a preasure release so we can have proper sustainable recovery. All we are doing now is delaying it and the allowing the preasure to grow in this economic bubble.

Cleaver

brit1234 wrote: »

The world won't end. I'm just into risk analysis in a big way after studying it at university.

As a genuine question then, and not to cause trouble. You're obviously quite well known on here for being certain the property would fall on average by 50% by Christmas 2009. I'm not sure of the exact figure, but I think it fell by about 15% or something by that point. And obviously you're quite well known for predicting mayhem and carnage generally in financial areas.

I think a lay person (or at least someone who doesn't study risk) would be able to assess how this country thinks, how its government works, the culture of the public and come to a reasonable conclusion that if house prices started to fall then a lot of people would do their best to stop them falling, especially in light of the rises we've seen in the last decade. And indeed, this happened. Prices started falling and we saw stamp duty suspended on some houses, interest rates lowered (for a variety of reasons of course), mortgage protection, schemes to get banks lending, QE, pressure not to reposses etc. etc. Obviously some of these helped the housing market indirectly, some directly.

How come someone who studies risk, and therefore is presumably trained in assessing how risks are mitigated, avoided and worked though, managed to not factor in these factors and came up with a prediction that turned out to be around 3 times worse than the actual scenario?

I work with risk at work and one major thing occurs to me. And that is if I came up with a very severe risk which turned out to not as risky as first thought, I would start to change the way in which I perceived and rated risk so that I was more accurate in predicting risks and their severity in the future. As someone who studies risk, do you do this?

I'm not holding my breath for any reasoned debate on this of course, so feel free to respond with a picture of a pin popping a bubble around a house if that's easier.

StevieJ

Cleaver wrote: »

I'm not holding my breath for any reasoned debate on this of course, so feel free to respond with a picture of a pin popping a bubble around a house if that's easier.

If Brit ran an insurance company he wouldm't sell many policies as no one would be able to afford to buy them :eek:

Really2

brit1234 wrote: »

The world won't end. I'm just into risk analysis in a big way after studying it at university.

So how the hell did you come up with house price to fall 50% from peak by the end of 09. You predicted that start of 2009 if I think.
You were expecting a 30%ish fall in one year!

Surely in your risk analysis they taught you how to forecast using facts and figures.

Also if you are in to analysing risk why are you listening to some guy on you tube