"The Recession" is Still On Track - House prices to fall

brit1234

"The Recession" is Still On Track

How is the recovery going? Watch this video and have a little think:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDhIFRKjYn4

Now ask yourself if huge toxic assest debt on housing worldwide caused this recession, by us still not paying it off and repossesions still rissing in the US and UK how can we recover.

The simple fact is that all we have done is delayed the problem and made it bigger. At the moment the governments in the UK and US have lowered interest rates to nothing and governments have conspired with banks in a smoke and mirror campaign moving debt with printing money and bond purchase. End result our credit rating is getting worse and so is inflation.

At some point because of this we will be forced to raise interest rates and the double dip recession will start. For home owners that is dangerous as repossesions are still rising and the good trackers are expiring. This will mean significantly higher mortgage costs for many as rates rise and I predict repossesions will raise far higher.

Eye of the Storm

Nows its taken billions in stimulas to take us nearly out of recession but that stimulas is now going (VAT cut, stamp duty lowering, car scrapage). Unemployment is still rissing, governmnt debt is fast rising, where is the recovery coming from.

Very shortly we are going to come out of recession, there will be much fan fair and patting each other on the back. However you have to remember it was a jobless recovery fueled my stimulas and thus unsustainable. We are now entering the eye of the storm where everything appears better. This will be short lived as the stimulas is now gone and all the debt catches up to us ie the other half of the storm the Double Dip.

Yes the housing bubble will burst as rates go up.

:eek:

Cleaver

"The Recession" is Still On Track

Brit, correct if I'm wrong, but your title of '"The Recession is Still On Track' implies that you have some plan, or at least wish, for this recession to remain. Is that the case? I've never heard anyone describe a recession as 'still on track'.

HammerSmashedFace

I mentioned the 'eye of the storm' in another thread I started, totally agree with you Brit. Prices rising on the back unsustainable low rates, bank of mum and dad, cash buyers that will disappear and the lowest number of FTB'rs on record, mix them together and we have sure fire carnage...... when ?, within 18 months of the election.

Radiantsoul

I am not sure this makes much sense.

Presumably lowering interest rates lowers the cost of purchasing housing, and will raise the price thereby reducing repossessions and reducing the "toxic assets" debt overhang.

Of course this debt is being nationalised on some level, but the problem was never so much the quantity of private sector debt but more its distribution. In other words those with debts couldn't afford to repay them. Now more of the nations debts are held by government, which have far greater power to repay.

A double dip recession is possible, but interest rates are unlikely to surge and the recovery may be "jobless"(who really knows). However a lot of people are still in work and they might well be able to drive the recovery.

chucky

keep 'em coming Brit!!

never say die - that's spirit!!

nearlynew

There is no "recovery" in sight.

It is all spin and bullsh1t.

Meanwhile the lies and theft continues and the real villain slips away un-noticed.

brit1234

Radiantsoul wrote: »

but interest rates are unlikely to surge.

They don't need to be, small rises are enough to push people over. Take those ftb who maxed out on the most they could borrow and afford while rates are low, its going to be hard for the.

As I said earlier repossesions are still rissing at 0.5% interest rates, now by raising rates more people will fall into that catergory. Add them to the people coming off there good trackers and in negative equity so have to go onto the SVR and we have a vastly growing pool of portential repossesions.

Cleaver

HammerSmashedFace wrote: »

I mentioned the 'eye of the storm' in another thread I started, totally agree with you Brit. Prices rising on the back unsustainable low rates, bank of mum and dad, cash buyers that will disappear and the lowest number of FTB'rs on record, mix them together and we have sure fire carnage...... when ?, within 18 months of the election.

When I first came to this site (god, nearly two years ago now) and started reading posts like the one above about unsustainable stuff, bank of mum and dad, cash buyers going etc. etc. it really made me think about stuff, and in a good way. I had my head in the sand about houses to a certain extent and reading posts like that really did change my perception on a lot of things.

But as I say, that was two years ago. Can we have a final date as to when this carnage will hit? I know we originally had 2008 as going to be carnage, then back to 2009, then definately christmas 2009, now it's 2010 after the election... At what point after predicting 'carnage' for years and years do you reassess and question whether 'carnage' is ever going to happen? Booms, busts, corrections, shifts, changes of course. But carnage? People just seem to cope. 'Tis my opinion anyway. I'm not saying everything will be rosey or not get worse, but you can't keep predicting mayhem and then when it doesn't happen just keep saying it will happen at some point.

StevieJ

Weebles wobble but they don't fall down I admire the 'never say die' attitude:T

brit1234

Cleaver wrote: »

Brit, correct if I'm wrong, but your title of '"The Recession is Still On Track' implies that you have some plan, or at least wish, for this recession to remain. Is that the case? I've never heard anyone describe a recession as 'still on track'.

Its the title of the video if you care to watch, the presenter has been very good over the years at pulling apart the spin.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDhIFRKjYn4

bo_drinker

I t y f it will be the 12th of never