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BoE: Approvals up 5% to 60,518
Comments
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Not so.
If the number of loans doubles and the average value of each loan halves, lending is unchanged.
Don't confuse 'em Gen. The simple fact is the money no longer exists, so either prices suffer or transactions suffer, or as we see a mixture of both. This is the issue, the last 12 months have been ramped like it's 2005 again, it's clearly not. And why i have said many times that if something is being ramped as normal, when it's clearly not, then it's fake. Add to these figures money printing and 400 year low IR's, and it doesn't look good does it ?0 -
HammerSmashedFace wrote: »Don't confuse 'em Gen.
He's too busy confusing himself.
Deliberately it would seem. :rolleyes:If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
He's too busy confusing himself.
Deliberately it would seem. :rolleyes:
The fact is Rinoa, transactions went from an average of well over 100,000 + per month for a decade (peaking at over 120,000) down to less than 30,000 within the space of 18 months and now they are at 60,000 they are being ramped like it's the second coming of Jesus, and even that rather pathetic figure has only been achieved by printing money and reducing rates to a point that can't be sustained.
You can't present these facts as anything but bad unless you are presenting them to the hard of thinking. You can't polish a turd.0 -
HammerSmashedFace wrote: »The fact is Rinoa, transactions went from an average of well over 100,000 + per month for a decade (peaking at over 120,000) down to less than 30,000 within the space of 18 months and now they are at 60,000 they are being ramped like it's the second coming of Jesus, and even that rather pathetic figure has only been achieved by printing money and reducing rates to a point that can't be sustained.
You can't present these facts as anything but bad unless you are presenting them to the hard of thinking. You can't polish a turd.
You're assuming that the current 60,000 is static. It isn't.
Approvals have increased 100% this last 12 months and continue to rise month after month after month.
Again, you can't fill a glass to the top before you fill it to half way first. We'll be back to normal transaction numbers soon enough.
Take a look at RICS from the middle of 2008 and notice the enquiries start to climb. And the approval numbers from December/January 2008/9 ~ they were rising long before the money pinting stated.
QE simply oiled the financial system, the lenders haven't been given free money. Now the financial system is slowly returning to normality, QE can be withdrawn with little or no effect on lending.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
QE simply oiled the financial system, the lenders haven't been given free money. Now the financial system is slowly returning to normality, QE can be withdrawn with little or no effect on lending.
No it cant. That is complete and utter crap.
1) The assets bought by the BOE need to be sold back. The glut of assets on the market is going to frig with yeilds and prices in an opposite sense to what it has done.
2) No supply of "free" gilts to government, meaning that government are going to have to find investors stupid enough to buy them in large quantities, which AINT GONNA HAPPEN without a significant hike in rates. What is going to happen to lending once
a) the money going into the wholesale mortgage market is getting syphoned off into high yeilding gilt purchases
b) we all are paying for the increased yeilds through much higer taxation and higher debt service costs?
As I said previously, double the length of your tiny penis is still not very much! :rotfl:0 -
You're assuming that the current 60,000 is static. It isn't.
Approvals have increased 100% this last 12 months and continue to rise month after month after month.
There you go with the spin again, 100% up for sure, from a never seen before low, on th back of two unsustainable policies.QE simply oiled the financial system, the lenders haven't been given free money. Now the financial system is slowly returning to normality, QE can be withdrawn with little or no effect on lending.
Are you kidding ? With the BoE buying almost half of all government debt, if QE was withdrawn there would likely be a bond strike without some hefty rate rises pretty sharply, and what do you think rising rates would have on repo's and the housing market in general ?
We all know that there are 300,000 household in at least 3 months arrears, this would normally trigger repo proceedings, higher IR's now would crucify the market, 50% down would be no problem.
The bottom line is I'm waiting to see what happens when these policies are withdrawn, if prices continue to rise on the back of 90k transactions per month, I will turn bull. I'm not holding my breath though.0 -
Not at all.
If you don't want to debate this stuff but would rather use snide comments than I'll leave it to the keyboard warriors.
Toodle Pip!
It looked to me as though you were being deliberately obtuse.
Sorry if you took offence.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
HammerSmashedFace wrote: »There you go with the spin again, 100% up for sure, from a never seen before low, on th back of two unsustainable policies.
Why are facts spin?
Are you kidding ? With the BoE buying almost half of all government debt, if QE was withdrawn there would likely be a bond strike without some hefty rate rises pretty sharply, and what do you think rising rates would have on repo's and the housing market in general ?
The MPC have no plans for further QE. Gilt yields suggest a BoE base rate of 3.5% by 2015.
We all know that there are 300,000 household in at least 3 months arrears, this would normally trigger repo proceedings, higher IR's now would crucify the market, 50% down would be no problem.
Looking at current gilt yields, IR's will be no higher than they were in 2006/7 ~ Repossessions didn't crucify the market then, why should they now?
The bottom line is I'm waiting to see what happens when these policies are withdrawn, if prices continue to rise on the back of 90k transactions per month, I will turn bull. I'm not holding my breath though.
It's prudent to leave that option open. If transaction levels plummet and supply increases 50% I will turn bear.
.......................If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
Rinoah, sorry dude, I aint going to trust anyones economic advice when they spell gilt "guilt"...
2.8 million unemployed (and growing), workers on part time work, soaring unsecured debt service costs, workers unable to work overtime, shift workers having their hours cut massively perhaps?Looking at current guilt yields, IR's will be no higher than they were in 2006/7 ~ Repossessions didn't crucify the market then, why should they now?0
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