Unemployment will peak at 2.8m in 2010

Dan:_4

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8433024.stm

So much for 3-4m by xmas 09 :rolleyes:

Emy1501

I think the labour market is a lot more flexible than it was in the past," he said. "We've seen employees take wage freezes or pay cuts or shorter hours in order to stave off redundancies.
"The big question for 2010 is how long that can be sustained."
Unemployment could also rise higher if the UK economy failed to recover as expected, or the government imposed deeper spending cuts, Dr Philpott warned.
"If... there was a more immediate cut in public spending - which could be the case if the Conservatives gain power at the general election due in the first half of 2010 - unemployment might peak at a higher rate than we currently forecast," he said.

Above suggest to me that the figures are nothing more than a guess based on the economy recovering in line with GB/AD forecasts which seem unlikely. Also as most economists are suggesting that that the cuts announced by Labour do not go far enough then I think its safe to say deeper spending cuts will happen when the new government takes office.

chucky

Dan: wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8433024.stm

So much for 3-4m by xmas 09 :rolleyes:

that's clearly good news that there will be less people unemployed.

Emy1501 wrote: »

Above suggest to me that the figures are nothing more than a guess

can you show me a different way apart from predictions or even guessing to know indicate what unemployment will be in 2010?

nembot

The spinnning BBC logo cannot see into the future, it's not a crystal ball young man.

HammerSmashedFace

Dan: wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8433024.stm

So much for 3-4m by xmas 09 :rolleyes:

I think that if we looked at the real figures, minus the government fiddling with incapacity benefit and JSA, that the figure is at least 4 mill.

Old_Slaphead

Dan: wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8433024.stm

So much for 3-4m by xmas 09 :rolleyes:

Make no mistake many employees are accepting less hours and pay freezes/reductions as an alternative to unemployment.

It would be interesting to see the FTE numbers employed compared to say a year ago.

chucky

Old_Slaphead wrote: »

Make no mistake many employees are accepting less hours and pay freezes/reductions as an alternative to unemployment.

you make it sound like a bad alternative to being made unemployed and businesses failing

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

you make it sound like a bad alternative to being made unemployed and businesses failing

The problem for many businessess is that even with these cost reductions, there is no long term guarantee of survival.

So despite taking reduced pay, many employees will still find themselves out of work as well.

What's more concerning is where the growth will come from to reduce the number of unemployed whatever it peaks at. The underlying number of long term unemployed is growing.

1984ReturnsForReal_2

2.8 million??????


Well as it is already about 7 million I find that a truely amazing result..

mr_fishbulb

chucky wrote: »

you make it sound like a bad alternative to being made unemployed and businesses failing

I thought he was just pointing out that although the figure suggests 2.8M peak unemployed, there will still be some people who kept their jobs but have moved onto a lower income because of reduced pay/less hours.

Yes, the way it was written may look a little arrogant, but you could also argue that Dan's original "So much for 3-4m by xmas 09 :rolleyes:" was childish and provocative.

Old_Slaphead

chucky wrote: »

you make it sound like a bad alternative to being made unemployed and businesses failing

I didn't intend it to sound that way - I was suggesting that overall unemployment (in terms of hours worked) wasn't necessarily less but was being ameliorated by the wider spreading the pain. Not necessarily a bad thing (other than for the individuals concerned, me included, and it having a disproportionate effect on the income tax take for the Treasury) but just a different way of showing a reduction in full time equivalent employment which makes the statistics look less bad.

Wonder what will happen when the 'prop' of the car scrappage scheme is withdrawn and the yearend sales splurge is finished.