House prices 'to fall by 10pc in 2010'

chucky

carolt wrote: »

What are you on about chucky?

What's with the 'only' 10% drop?

How much do you want it to fall in just year? 10% will suit me fine, thanks.

I assume that figure will up once interest rates go up, but that's not going to happen in election year, realistically. So 10% seems quite fair.

do the math - 10% off now will leave you at what point, at around May this year???

you'll then not have the opportunity to have got a good mortgage rate that were available in the first half of this year.

that's a double whammy - more expensive house and more expensive mortgage repayments :eek:

carolt

I'm not buying this year. For schooling reasons, we're very unlikely to buy before 2011 now.

What will be, will be.

I'm not going to live my life or fix my children's major life decisions on the basis of what house prices might or might not do. When I'm in a position to buy, I either will, or I won't, really, depending on a whole host of factors, which I'll worry about at the time.

I'm still keeping an eye out, should any total bargain appear before then, in a suitable area. But it's pretty low on my priority list ATM.

chucky

carolt wrote: »

I'm not buying this year. For schooling reasons, we're very unlikely to buy before 2011 now.

What will be, will be.

I'm not going to live my life or fix my children's major life decisions on the basis of what house prices might or might not do. When I'm in a position to buy, I either will, or I won't, really, depending on a whole host of factors, which I'll worry about at the time.

I'm still keeping an eye out, should any total bargain appear before then, in a suitable area. But it's pretty low on my priority list ATM.

that's what i did - when the circumstances suited and the right property at the right price came along i made the decision.

Emy1501

carolt wrote: »

I'm not buying this year. For schooling reasons, we're very unlikely to buy before 2011 now.

What will be, will be.

I'm not going to live my life or fix my children's major life decisions on the basis of what house prices might or might not do. When I'm in a position to buy, I either will, or I won't, really, depending on a whole host of factors, which I'll worry about at the time.

I'm still keeping an eye out, should any total bargain appear before then, in a suitable area. But it's pretty low on my priority list ATM.

I have been keeping my eye out since the beginning of the year but have not seen anything which suits my need. We have schooling issues as well and therefore I not really bothered about buying a main home to the middle of next year if we do decide to buy.

10% falls would be great for me as I suspect with hard barginning this could be turned into 15%. To be honest stagnation is more than fine.

Pobby

I find it increasingly difficult to predict anything at the moment. Guess we will all have different ideas. The folks that live next to me are coming up to 40 and have a;most cleared a small mortgage. They were telling me that they have bought a btl. The rent covers the mortgage which is fine but me, possibly being a bit pessimistic, would be concerned at making that choice when the BOE base rate, in my mind, is not going to stay that way.

However, maybe it will. Goodness knows.

When I bought did I expect to see the best part of a 400% increase bottom to top? Nah, course not.

If 2 years ago you said that the base rate would be 0.5% I would have got you to check in with your doctor.

Who knows what the next trick will be in Gordies Magic Economy show?

" Ach, for ma next trick hen , you will like this, not a lot, but you will like it "

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

interesting that Capital Economics are frequently quoted by the HPC brigade but only predict 10% drops even with next years economic hurdles that are in front of us. i can see them not being quoted very frequently in future :rolleyes:

No.

They predict 10% drops in 2010.

They do not mention or predict what may happen after that. Neither are they forecasting 10% drops, just 10% drops in a specific timeframe.

I don't think you get it.

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

No.

They predict 10% drops in 2010.

They do not mention or predict what may happen after that. Neither are they forecasting 10% drops, just 10% drops in a specific timeframe.

I don't think you get it.

no Graham - you fail again. i specifically mention next year as the specific timeframe..

chucky wrote: »

it has lots to do with housing debate because they're predicting house prices for next year. they've got it wrong more frequently than not so there is no reason why things would change.

interesting that Capital Economics are frequently quoted by the HPC brigade but only predict 10% drops even with next years economic hurdles that are in front of us. i can see them not being quoted very frequently in future :rolleyes:

i mentioned next year and the maximum house price drops they expected next year - you wear glasses right? why don't you get them checked out - lol they don't seem to be working too well do they

why do you persist on making yourself look so foolish so often?

baby_boomer

I thought the Labour Pre-Budget report had left all the nasties until 2011.

And it's bound to be far worse than they predict ahead of an election.

So does anyone see a housing market increase in 2011?

I don't.

And these indebted students are continuing to pile up. These people used to be the first time buyers in their mid-late twenties. But the average student debt is set to rise from £20K to £35K in the next three years.

A new landscape is emerging in which home ownership will slip to below 60% after peaking at over 70%.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

baby_boomer wrote: »

So does anyone see a housing market increase in 2011?

.

Yes.......

Stuart Law, of the investment firm Assetz — who a year ago was an almost lone contrarian predicting growth in house prices this year — thinks that prices could be 5 per cent higher at the end of 2010. Chesterton Humberts tips a 2 per cent increase. After all, there is substantial pent-up demand after two years of slowdown — and many potential buyers are finding themselves virtually untouched by the recession.
Isn’t that a little too upbeat?
The prime market, particularly in the South, is already singing and experts predict that it will continue to outperform all next year. Affluent professionals, such as lawyers, doctors and accountants, will continue to enjoy their current dominance and in London the influx of foreign buyers (many taking advantage of favourable exchange rates) will continue to bring in new cash.
But that won’t help the whole market, surely?
It may. Many cash-rich buyers are already investing in the property market, often for their children. Buy-to-let suddenly seems to be viable again. Wider recovery is expected to start in 2011, but to kick in fully the following year, once the turbulence has passed. House-price growth will be sustained from then on.
So the slowdown is likely to be a blip?
Experts seem to agree that it is. Savills predicts that between 2012 and 2015 UK house prices will rise 27 per cent to an average of almost £200,000 — 7.5 per cent more than at the peak of the market just over two years ago. The agent has warned, though, that this slowdown has re-established the North-South divide and that it will take time for some parts of the North to catch up.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/article6952008.ece

carolt

That would be the same Savill's predicting 6% drops next year?