House prices 'to fall by 10pc in 2010'

chucky

Ed Stansfield of Capital Economics, the consultancy, cast doubt on the sustainability of this year's rises and said any bad news on the economy or unemployment could send the market into reverse.

One factor supporting the housing market had been the relatively mild rise in unemployment, he said. "If employers continue to avoid laying people off, our forecast of a 10pc fall in house price could turn out to be pessimistic" he added.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/6769586/House-prices-to-fall-by-10pc-in-2010.html

if, if, if - here's a worst case scenario from one of the more pessimistic group of people on house prices. 70% drops anyone??

nembot

In my personal opinion I would speculate 10% is pretty spot on, although there are many factors that could change the eventual outcome.

I would guess in the next two 2½ years we'll see prices drop approx 20% from what they are now. This would in turn taking into account inflation be around 35% down from peak.

If I'm wrong, everyone can bump and laugh

pawpurrs

10% only taking us back to the low of febuary.......

nembot

Wouldn't be so sure, not everywhere went up by the numbers quoted by the lenders.

I'm renting a place that dropped 30% in price this year, been through 3 auctions now and still not sold.

It's all subjective I suppose and location is a factor, some areas dropped 25% others around 15% (before the increase this year).

purch

any bad news on the economy or unemployment could send the market into reverse.

OR......any good news on the economy and more employment could do the opposite.

You see this Economics 'lark' is dead easy

Thrugelmir

chucky wrote: »

if, if, if - here's a worst case scenario from one of the more pessimistic group of people on house prices. 70% drops anyone??

We're heading into uncharted water with the economy.

As discussed previously unemployment figures are to blunt an instrument. Its estimated that a million people now work part time instead of full time.

We've had 7 applicants for a position paying £18k per annum who previously earnt between £25k and £30k. There's a shift going on. As earning a living is better than being on JSA.

Maybe the economic boom has meant that in general we're all overpaid for what we do? We all have to accept less in the future. To give a fairer distribution of wealth.

westv

For selfish reasons I hope a fall of 10%+ happens next year. I'm going to be made redundant in the new year so I'll need a few months a) to get another job and b) to have been working in the new job long enough to get a mortgage.

carolt

Am I the only one wondering why chucky posted this? Mr bull himself?

Are you just missing the arguments so much you had to start a thread, just so you could diss those who agreed with your OP?

Graham_Devon

carolt wrote: »

Am I the only one wondering why chucky posted this? Mr bull himself?

Are you just missing the arguments so much you had to start a thread, just so you could diss those who agreed with your OP?

Because it said "if" in the post, and he's decided to have a pop at that.

chucky

carolt wrote: »

Am I the only one wondering why chucky posted this? Mr bull himself?

Are you just missing the arguments so much you had to start a thread, just so you could diss those who agreed with your OP?

no Carol - i think you missed the argument and point a long time ago, do you know the difference between a bull and a bear? :rolleyes:

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Because it said "if" in the post, and he's decided to have a pop at that.

you miss the point again Graham - why break the habit of a lifetime though

Thrugelmir

carolt wrote: »

Am I the only one wondering why chucky posted this? Mr bull himself?

Are you just missing the arguments so much you had to start a thread, just so you could diss those who agreed with your OP?

Selective reading. As the article goes onto say.

But if the economy fails to recover, companies may feel they can no longer keep people on. Our hunch is that considerable job losses are in the pipeline