Stamp duty back, House price crash back as well?

Cleaver

chucky wrote: »

Sorry Cleaver I can't see it having any impact in London.

I was speaking generally, not London.

The same Rightmove test shows 1000+ houses in Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, Nottingham and lots of other places. In fact, if the average house price is £160k then any standard distribution model would probably show that 'most' places up for sale in Britain would be between £125k and £175k.

I don't agree with Brit that it's that significant or would cause crash part II, I'm just saying that it'd be silly to discount it as a factor. Most people with a house for sale between £125k and £175k will find that place slightly more difficult to sell after Christmas, so of course that will have some form of impact.

chucky

Cleaver wrote: »

I was speaking generally, not London.

i know. i edited my post.

Cleaver wrote: »

The same Rightmove test shows 1000+ houses in Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, Nottingham and lots of other places. In fact, if the average house price is £160k then any standard distribution model would probably show that 'most' places up for sale in Britain would be between £125k and £175k.

I don't agree with Brit that it's that significant or would cause crash part II, I'm just saying that it'd be silly to discount it as a factor. Most people with a house for sale between £125k and £175k will find that place slightly more difficult to sell after Christmas, so of course that will have some form of impact.

you're right it will have some sort of impact - i was responding to Brit's comments about forcing a crash in London property.

my question to ask is if £1,750 is stopping you buying a property, i doubt you will be able to afford any 'surprises' like repairs to the property, rates going up etc...

if anything sellers will offer to sell their property £2k less just to attract buyers.
i know that's not realistic but in reality the stamp duty will be factored into prices over time.

wageslave

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Because the average deposit is already over 25 grand. If you've got the cash to plonk down a 25K deposit, raising another grand or two for SD is no big deal.

If we were still in the times of 100% mortgages, I might agree with you that it would have an effect.

But for todays buyers, it's insignificant.

I put down a 35k deposit and stamp duty factored heavily into my decision. Another two grand would have been an extremely big deal.

It is not an insignificant amount of money to me Hamish. I had to work fu cking hard for it and I am not parting with it easily.

At the very least, and I do mean the very least, I would expect the seller to meet me half way. If they wouldn't they could look elsewhere for a buyer.

I can't believe you'd be any different.

the_ash_and_the_oak

chucky wrote: »

if your worried about paying £1,750 extra when buying a property and you're stretched financially - i don't think buying a house is for you.

Isn't it not so much that people won't find the extra 1750 but that 1750 off a deposit is potentially 17500 off an amount borrowable (at a 90% LTV)

I'm not suggesting that return of stamp duty is suddenly going to cause a crash all of a sudden but if it is going to have any kind effect isn't it more likely to be in this kind of way?

chucky

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Isn't it not so much that people won't find the extra 1750 but that 1750 off a deposit is potentially 17500 off an amount borrowable (at a 90% LTV)

I'm not suggesting that return of stamp duty is suddenly going to cause a crash all of a sudden but if it is going to have any kind effect isn't it more likely to be in this kind of way?

you're probably right - that would make sense.

you'd then have to take into account how much extra in mortgage repayments this would be if you had to borrow more. maybe it's better and cheaper to borrow this amount on your mortgage or borrow it elsewhere.

the_ash_and_the_oak

A trick I read they used to do was pop the extra on the credit card

Graham_Devon

No, I don't think it will have a huge impact on house prices.

What it will do, is just put a few people a few paces back, as they have to save more for the same thing.

With the recent HPI, people will be put back even further.

I have to say though, after seeing how HPI can rise above nearly every problem, backed by the nations love of property and mindset that it's still an investment, rather than a home, the dent that stamp duty could have made, will merely scratch the surface of sentiment.

Personally, I feel the only thing now that will bring house prices down is interest rate rises and some much needed focus on stopping property speculation. Either that, or another crisis due to (again) high house prices.

The property speculation stuff simply will not happen, not with the amount of VI in westminster. So thats out. Interest rates I would think will catch us all by surprise, but no point in trying to forecast them really. So I do feel it will take another crisis, only built up by today's ever increasing (again) prices, to bring house prices down. That crisis, I feel, may impact the interest rates.

the_ash_and_the_oak

get where you are coming from but look how the last crisis (past tense?) impacted interest rates

Graham_Devon

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

get where you are coming from but look how the last crisis (past tense?) impacted interest rates

Yes, but they cannot be impacted that way anymore, we don't have the room to manouvre, we don't have the money to create more stimulus.

The last crash in my mind has only been shored up by creating eye watering debt which we will have to pay off. It's given a banged up old car with 300,000 miles on the clock a fresh paintjob and presented it as something much better than what it is. The outside may look nice and shiny, but the internals are shot to pieces.

If there is another crisis, which I personally believe there will be (sometime after an emergency post election budget) the crisis this time will be different. It will be the crisis not of the banks, but of the country.

payless

remeber those looking at numbers of properties that fall in to the £125-£175K, some of these will still be exempt if sold below £150K and in a "disadvantaged area"