EON and microgeneration

rhiwfield

Cardew wrote: »

Whilst I understand rhiwfield's calculations, my gut feeling is he is being a little optimistic in his assumptions(in the sense that it is a best case scenario) - but it will take a long while to prove that one way or another.

Over a 15 year period, I suspect it could be cost neutral.

But I'll be the only solar pv in the village

You may be right on timescale, and I haven't tried to do IRR or NPV calcs as there are too many variables, including level of amortisation, but saving money wasnt the only consideration, I was keen also to reduce net electricity consumption.

Going back to the figures, the potential upside is that the opening returns may be higher than expected, quite possible on energy exported, lets wait for the announcement in Jan. Going forward the 1499 ish units generated should be worth far more in due course as leccy prices rise above inflation as per official forecasts. And the return is after tax!

Downside would be maintenance costs not included under warranty and the very slow efficiency degradation from the panels. Also its unclear to me whether fits are index linked (unlikely and not assumed)

The system has a nominal output of just under 1700 kwh pa and having checked out orientation, location, inclination and potential shading on 2 independent websites I'm relaxed that the 1499 is a fair estimation of actual output, if not slightly low.

Still, I didnt start thread as a self justification of my decision, but I'm happy to stand by it.

rhiwfield

fc123 wrote: »

Also, are they not currently overcharged by £2500 to mop up the grant?
That is, if I waited until Sept, will fit/supply prices just drop by that amount? Had experience of that type of thing before (but was to do with shopfits and regeneration grants).

Difficult to say but it was informative that my system's formal quote was below Cardew's expectations and also below several website's estimates. I'd expect both costs to fall and efficiencies to improve with time, at which point govt is less likely to offer incentives, indeed fits are due to reduce year on year.

Cardew

rhiwfield wrote: »

But I'll be the only solar pv in the village

You may be right on timescale, and I haven't tried to do IRR or NPV calcs as there are too many variables, including level of amortisation, but saving money wasnt the only consideration, I was keen also to reduce net electricity consumption.

Going back to the figures, the potential upside is that the opening returns may be higher than expected, quite possible on energy exported, lets wait for the announcement in Jan. Going forward the 1499 ish units generated should be worth far more in due course as leccy prices rise above inflation as per official forecasts. And the return is after tax!

Downside would be maintenance costs not included under warranty and the very slow efficiency degradation from the panels. Also its unclear to me whether fits are index linked (unlikely and not assumed)

The system has a nominal output of just under 1700 kwh pa and having checked out orientation, location, inclination and potential shading on 2 independent websites I'm relaxed that the 1499 is a fair estimation of actual output, if not slightly low.

Still, I didnt start thread as a self justification of my decision, but I'm happy to stand by it.

Certainly not going to disagree with your balanced posts on this issue, I just view the situation 'from the other end of the telescope'

Time will tell if we were optimistic or pessimistic!

My understanding is that in the proposals the April 2010 FITs are fixed for 25 years. Each subsequent year the FIT value will reduce, so a system fitted after April 2011 will get a lower FIT.

My point was to make it clear to others(not yourself) that the stupidly low payback periods I have seen quoted in adverts are just not realistic.

Assuming that the proposals are adopted in full, it certainly seems that the most favourable time to install will be in the next 3 months, assuming you can get the £2500 grant.

macman

Ecotricity are currently paying 12p per Kwh to me on a 1.25Kw PV system. That's a big hike from the 4.5p I got when they system was first installed. However I'm one of the mugs who will pay for being an early adopter, as the rate on existing installs is due to drop to only 9p once the FIT proposals go through.
With an election looming I would be very careful about firmly committing to an install without knowing what might change after May.

Cardew

macman wrote: »

With an election looming I would be very careful about firmly committing to an install without knowing what might change after May.

Once the proposals are adopted(assuming they are adopted) in April, I cannot see either party in power reneging on existing systems getting the 36.5p. It its perfectly feasible, albeit IMO unlikely, that they might reduce the FIT for future systems.

Bear in mind however that the FIT system does not cost the Government a penny. The money for the FIT subsidy is raised by a levy on all Utility companies which is paid into a fund administered by ofgem; and so all customers will pay by way of higher prices.

All the main parties have said they are in agreement with the commitment UK gave at the Copenhagen debacle.

thor

fc123 wrote: »

It's just that I was reading an article on Russia and gas etc yesterday and, as we are moving back into our owned house soon and about to do some work, wondered if solar panels would a good thing (over the longterm...like 15 years).

This is exactly why I think domestic energy genration will take off big time in the near/mid future. Rogue gas/oil producing nations can hold other countries to ransom and it will only get worse as our dwindling reserves dry out. As that happens evryone will begin to switch to nuclear(no choice but to do so) but that will increase pressure on nuclear supplies and waste disposal. If everyone who can produce renewable energy domestically does so then surely that will help take the heat off nuclear power. Does anyone seriously think there will be much fossil fuel left that we could get access to in 50 years time? I don't!
Ultimately we really need nuclear fusion to become viable then and only then will I feel solar pv, wind turbines etc will become a thing of the past.

rhiwfield

Still trying to sort the wheat from the chaff from this DECC press release but it appears that:

FITS are

• index linked
• tax free
• for solar pv retrofit 41.3p for sub 4kw system

plus you get to keep the electricity you generate
and you get paid for any exported
and you can get a grant of £2500 for next 2 months