Latest Housing Stats.....

brixham

I'm a bit worried now as I have never earnt big money but have never struggled to pay the mortgage (bought in 1993).
However I am a singleton so will I get repossessed ?

Graham_Devon

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Speaking of Graham - he's been very quiet lately - did he get detention?

Just work being annoying and actually giving me work to do. It's appauling.

Cleaver

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

• The average declared income for first time buyers buying a property with a mortgage in the UK in 2008 was £41,000. This compares with £62,000 for former owner occupiers (Table 5.5);

Thanks for posting this Hamish, some interesting stats. That one above is quite interesting in my uneducated eyes. Is that a joint income or a single? If it's a single income, doesn't it speak volumes that the average salary of a FTBer is far more than the average wage?

You'd expect a low to medium wage to be buying a small / average property, then high medium and high wages to be buying expensive places.

Mr.Brown_4

Cleaver wrote: »

You'd expect a low to medium wage to be buying a small / average property, then high medium and high wages to be buying expensive places.

For a fully paid up member of the raving bonkers right on bullish property owning magnate dudes - you do ask the occasional pertinent question.

No offence.

Cleaver

Mr.Brown wrote: »

For a fully paid up member of the raving bonkers right on bullish property owning magnate dudes - you do ask the occasional pertinent question.

No offence.

No offence taken.

I often think that I seem quite bullish in comparison with a lot of people on this forum. Put me in a real life situation and I seem quite pessimistic.

Me: "But what about quantitative easing? Surely this rally is just based on that?"
Office worker: "Quantitative what now?"

Back to the original topic, you can throw any stat you like at me and I'll never accept that the average couple, on an average wage can currently afford the average house. Doesn't mean I think house prices will fall 50% of course, but then I don't really understand this economic malarkey.

System

Cleaver wrote: »

Is that a joint income or a single? If it's a single income, doesn't it speak volumes that the average salary of a FTBer is far more than the average wage?

I would imagine it's the average of all/both.

baileysbattlebus

Emy1501 wrote: »

So not fact then? You have read both arguments and then told us as fact that unemployment will not have an impact on house prices when its really just your humble opinion. As for the BOE can you show where they say rates will not rise significantly in years to come. Of course again this is their opinion and not fact as they have been wrong before have they not?

Apart from the last recession - when the housing market crashed - you have times like now when unemployment is rising, but after an initial fall, so are house prices. That happened in the early 1980's too, unemployment and house prices rising at the same time. Although initially house prices fell a bit. And we had massive unemployment then - much worse than now.

In the late 1980's and early 1990's there were very high interest rates along side high unemployment - so was the crash caused by high unemployment or high interest rates? Was it unemployment or high interest rates that caused people to default?

I think the logical thing would be to say rising unemployment = falling house prices - fewer people able to afford a home and demand would fall - but that would depend on who lost their job wouldn't it?

This time we have tight credit and rising unemployment - how can the rise in house prices this year be explained? Theoretically there should be less demand as we have rising unemployment and tight credit restrictions.

And of course in the last recession we also had falling unemployment and falling house prices -

Sorry the chart only goes out to mid 2008 - but you know what comes next - prices fall until early 2009 and then start to rise - and unemployment keeps rising.


So IMHO, it's actually difficult to say unemployment directly affects house prices.

Someone will be able to straighten me out though!




House prices are Nationwide and the unemployment figurs ONS

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

baileysbattlebus wrote: »

I think the logical thing would be to say rising unemployment = falling house prices - fewer people able to afford a home and demand would fall - but that would depend on who lost their job wouldn't it?

This time we have tight credit and rising unemployment - how can the rise in house prices this year be explained? Theoretically there should be less demand as we have rising unemployment and tight credit restrictions.

And of course in the last recession we also had falling unemployment and falling house prices -

Sorry the chart only goes out to mid 2008 - but you know what comes next - prices fall until early 2009 and then start to rise - and unemployment keeps rising.


So IMHO, it's actually difficult to say unemployment directly affects house prices.

Someone will be able to straighten me out though!




House prices are Nationwide and the unemployment figurs ONS

No, you're spot on with that analysis.

I think the biggest mistake many people made was looking at the last recession and crash and assuming this one would play out in a similar way.

We have pretty good interest rate and price data for the previous 3 housing crashes before this one, GDP stats for their associated recessions, and unemployment stats throughout them all.

And the only thing you can say about them, is that no two crashes or recoveries played out in the same way. Particularly with regards to timescale.

And when the causes of this crash were so radically different than the causes of the previous crash, with the interventions being applied that never were before, it is no surprise that the results are so different as well.

Bootski

nearlynew wrote: »

I don't want to know about repossessions.

I asked for your opinion on whether it was right to repossess people who could not afford to pay for the house that they "bought".

NO! - things change - it's commonly known as "life"

Bootski

Oh! Charts! Charts! Charts! - drawings, pictures and CARTOONS!

Your'e fixated by them!

Tell you what, I've got a chart too - be back soon x