MSE News: Halifax: housing shortage boosts prices

chucky

stueyhants wrote: »

As I understand it, the Haliwide indices apply mix adjustment factors to balance the price mix between types of houses (flats versus expensive detached).

My assertion is that the mix adjustment factors are not having the same ‘balancing’ effect as before and consequently part of the recent rises in indices can be attributed to better houses selling pulling up the so called average price.

For example take two houses on the same street, same attributes (number of bedrooms, garden, garage etc). But one was south facing with better decor and the other a bit tired, north facing garden and possibly next door to the local pub. They would have both sold in the boom years. Now that credit has reduced, only buyers with good deposits (and arguably more discerning buyers) are buying the nicer houses.

The mix adjustment smoothing wouldn’t take these factors into account as they are quite a blunt factor. This is a theory and I could be wrong but I think it’s only when the indices start to come back down again (due to increase purchases of these so called lower standard houses) can we say the market has recovered and is sustainable again.

i'd re-check that assertion according to the BBA mortgage approval figures the average mortgage is £130k - average house price £160k ish. that would be a 25% deposit. stamp duty holiday ending and all that...

just a thought...

doire_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Actually, from memory, in his area prices rose by around 9% on the last regional release.

But it's OK, TreesDontGrowToTheSky says there are still some house asking prices falling, so the market must still be crashing.:rolleyes:

Actually if you read the lastest Ulster University report prices are down in my area.

I live in the West.

Coleraine/Limavady/North Coast saw values drop by 8.9% compared to the second quarter with a similar story in Derry/Strabane down 6.6%, Enniskillen/Fermanagh/South Tyrone a drop of 8.6% and Mid and South Down having a 5.5% decline.

Oh and TDGTTS shows most asking prices are way down in all parts of NI

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

stueyhants wrote: »

As I understand it, the Haliwide indices apply mix adjustment factors to balance the price mix between types of houses (flats versus expensive detached).

My assertion is that the mix adjustment factors are not having the same ‘balancing’ effect as before and consequently part of the recent rises in indices can be attributed to better houses selling pulling up the so called average price.

.

Theres probably some truth in this.

But equally, the same mix adjustment tools were used when prices were falling, and the same factors applied then re low volumes and selective buyers.

And I didn't see the bears trying to pick apart the methodology then....

Emy1501

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Actually, from memory, in his area prices rose by around 9% on the last regional release.

But it's OK, TreesDontGrowToTheSky says there are still some house asking prices falling, so the market must still be crashing.:rolleyes:

To most though surely what is happening in their local area etc is more important that what the average house price is? You only have to look at the housing forum to see there are a fair few threads there with people struggling to sell having their house downvalued to see to everything is not great in every part of the UK.

brit1234

From what I have seen a lot of the price rises are linked to people getting rid of savings due to low interest rates and also bank of mum and dad (West London). Even though asking prices have been down for a while.

Cash deposits can not last much longer, normal lending can not support these prices especially with inflation going up.

chucky

brit1234 wrote: »

From what I have seen a lot of the price rises are linked to people getting rid of savings due to low interest rates and also bank of mum and dad (West London). Even though asking prices have been down for a while.

Cash deposits can not last much longer, normal lending can not support these prices especially with inflation going up.

two things Brit - i know that you deal in soundbites and don't like facts so i don't expect a reply :rolleyes:

1. Mortgage approvals numbers are up and increasing every month. They are not far off house sale transaction numbers. The average mortgage according to the BBA is £130k - your theory about cash buyers holding up the market since February holds no water. for a couple of months yes, but not 9 months!!!!!

2. Your footer is incorrect - the only HPC prices "stagnated at the bottom for years" was during the 1990s. the 1970s and 1980s HPC; prices moved on very quickly. so your footer below is incorrect...
PROPERTY BOTTOM - History tells us that property stagnates for years at the bottom, there will be no rapid rises at the bottom, don't rush.:think:

phil_b_2

I bought my house in june for £175k. so how much ££ am I potentially up? :beer:

nembot

When there's only 2000 houses left on Rightmove, I might start to believe there's a supply and demand issue.

Until then, i'll just say aubergine...

phil_b_2

nembot wrote: »

When there's only 2000 houses left on Rightmove, I might start to believe there's a supply and demand issue.

Until then, i'll just say aubergine...

If that happened house prices would go to da mooooonnnnnnn!

Graham_Devon

Dan: wrote: »

Even when IR hit 0.5% and the Govrnment started up QE etc, some folk on this forum were saying it was impossiable to stop a crash of 40%-50% at least. Now they are back tracking and blaming that the Government measurements have runied their prediction.

We actually now have an example of how stimulus being pulled effects the economy (not house prices specifically). That example is Germany, who now fear a double dip after seeing big declines, with massive job cuts lined up in the auto industry now stimulus has gone.

I do think that the whole economy now is based on, well, I dunno what it's based on, but let's face it, it's not "real".

The rises have gone on far longer than I would have imagined, and I will admit that I was indeed wrong in my thoughts. However, I also didn't think at the time when £75bn was printed, that we would hit £200bn. I don't even bother guessing anymore. Could be £400bn before we know it.

Yes, a lot of bears were wrong. But I think their point, if any have the same thoughts as myself is ramping up house prices and ramping up the economy to get it back to a peak crashing point, which was completely unaffordable, can't be a good thing?

Everyone is entitled to their own opinions. Yes, I am annoyed personally about this whole rise in prices. I actually thought I may have a chance of getting somewhere completely off my own back. Seems now, however, that aint gonna happen, and again, it seems that any savings I can make, are wiped out by each months HPI.

Sob story? No. Reality? Yes.

As for what brit said.....Brit, you have to remember, HPI allowed those parents to help their kids in a lot of cases. HPI is back. So there will not neccesarily be a shortage of parents able to help their offspring with deposits.