UK mortgage approvals up 97.7 pct y/y in Oct-BBA

chucky

Generali wrote: »

That's the conclusion I take from looking at those BBA numbers. I'd be really interested to see a back of envelope analysis on a similar basis by entrenched bears or bulls using all of the figures, not just some.

i have had a similar conclusion of the last few months.

with regards to the FTB's, it gets more complex as you need to look at single FTBs and joint income FTBs. there clearly is a massive difference as far as affordability goes.

stueyhants

It’s difficult to generalise who is buying in the market and whether its FTB or trader uppers. In my specific area for the past 8 years about 55% of sales where detached on average, whereas this year it’s about 85%. So suggesting that most of the sales haven’t come from 1st time buyers. But this is just one area and I’m sure others are probably the complete opposite.

Really2

Generali wrote: »

That's the conclusion I take from looking at those BBA numbers. I'd be really interested to see a back of envelope analysis on a similar basis by entrenched bears or bulls using all of the figures, not just some.

The only reverse I could put on that (not what I think) but it could signal more people are buying from outside the SE than 12 months ago. (double the numbers of approvals but only fractionally higher lending)

Generali

Really2 wrote: »

The only reverse I could put on that (not what I think) but it could signal more people are buying from outside the SE than 12 months ago. (double the numbers of approvals but only fractionally higher lending)

I can see that. People buying cheaper houes because they're in cheaper areas rather than because they're buying smaller places.

Duely thanked.

Jonbvn

Generali wrote: »

That's the conclusion I take from looking at those BBA numbers. I'd be really interested to see a back of envelope analysis on a similar basis by entrenched bears or bulls using all of the figures, not just some.

I can see the bank of M&D argument being prepared, as I type!

stueyhants

Do the BBA figures represent all of the mortgage market or just lending by banks?

If its just includes the banks then what might the affect on the total mortgage market be a from reduction in specialist lenders (either going out of business or closing to new borrowers) and the squeeze on the building societies lending due to their limited deposit base.

Is it possible that net lending might not be increasing as much as the BBA figures suggest?

I think it is a bit disingenuous to use the 97% Y/Y quote, it clearly shows the agenda of the BBA. Whilst the 97% is true, it is also perfectly true to write that mortgage approvals are still down ‘50%’ (or whatever the figure is) from the peak. Organisations such as these should state absolute figures and refrain from propaganda either positive or negative.

Really2

stueyhants wrote: »

Do the BBA figures represent all of the mortgage market or just lending by banks?

Well the figures are against there own previous figures so the figures should be consistent and representative of a very large segment of the market at least.

http://www.bba.org.uk//bba/jsp/polopoly.jsp?d=833

They have 260 members you can check them out on the above link.

Generali

stueyhants wrote: »

Do the BBA figures represent all of the mortgage market or just lending by banks?

It's lending by the largest banks, not all of the market.

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=October+figures+for+the+main+high+street+banks&l=1

(see note 2)

stueyhants

But if their figures are increasing at the same rate as the non BBA members are dropping then there isn't any real increase on the overall market. I'm not saying this is happening but just thought it was worth raising the question.

Thrugelmir

HBOS had around a 20% share of the UK mortgage market around September/October 2008.

So would have impacted the number of approvals granted as its problems came to a head last year.