House prices 'will fall up to 10% next year and take years to recover'

the_ash_and_the_oak

GeneHunt wrote: »

I bought my first house in 1995. Now It's worth 5 times what I paid for it then. So it's increased 500% - so what's 10% drop anyway???

To the op. I believe you have a child going to High School. If you could have brought a house 10 years ago and for some reason you didn't, why would a 10% drop be a consolation for the fact that perhaps you should have bought before? If you'd bought a decade ago you would be nearly half through paying off your mortgage by now. Just a thought.

Totally agree with this, people should have bought in 1995 really imo

and tbf even if they halved in price from this point on they'd still be much higher than the price they could have bought for in 1995 so people should take that into account

jim83

real1314 wrote: »

Start>Programs>Accessories>Calculator

50,000 x 500%

What answer are you getting?

try 50,000 X 100%

if a house had stayed the same price, would that be a 100% increase?

A house that is now worth 5 times more than what was originally paid has increased by 400%, not 500%.

kabayiri

real1314 wrote: »

Start>Programs>Accessories>Calculator

50,000 x 500%

What answer are you getting?

You know, it's a fair point. Without explaining it, it all sounds a bit of a snide comment I made.

The key word in the sentence used was increase.

If I paid 100K for my house, and it sold for 200K I would have 2 times my original investment in my pocket, but I would have seen an increase of 100% on my property, ie the property was worth 100% more than it's original starting value.

It's a recent bug bear because I saw the exact same mistake made in a local shop last week.

kabayiri

Eric_Pisch wrote: »

They could hardly computer model to the bridge to work out its resonance frequency which would of showed at what wind speed aeroelastic flutter occurred back in the 40s.

There are many huge IT systems that work near perfectly, some of them immense, your using one as you read this The main large IT systems that fail have one thing in common they are run by politicians and civil servants.

The banking IT system worked perfectly, what failed where the regulators and financial monitoring authorities, they even ignored the lessons learnt from the 30s. Bankers are greedy, they worship money, they will do anything within the framework of rules set by the relevant authorities to make money.

I do agree Eric.

I was really pointing to the failures of people. Computer system developments do often provide many 'opportunities' for people to show their failings though
(over ambition being one)

The final point you make is an interesting one. The failure to learn our lessons from history. Maybe emotion clouds our judgement?

Jonbvn

kabayiri wrote: »

Is economics supposed to be like a normal science subject?

Let's be honest here and say that economics cannot be considered a true science (IMHO). I recently saw a good description that classified economics as a branch of descriptive anthropology.

BTW, the channel tunnel was built by civil engineers with the assistance of mechanical engineers.;) (BTW I am a civil engineer)

Jonbvn

StevieJ wrote: »

Their housing forecasts were actually atrocious take a look at their forecasts over the years :eek:

Time for some graph pron!;)

Mr.Brown_4

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Capital Economics are without a doubt the WORST forecasters in UK housing history.

I accept your point that there is little to be gained from listening to the variety of market predictions. What I am less clear about is how highly your rate your own predictions? Is yours the one and only truth Hamish, or is there a case for using the Ignore feature even more widely?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Jonbvn wrote: »

Time for some graph pron!;)

Good old capital economics......

Consistently as wrong as it is humanly possible to be.

You'd think after being that wrong, that often, they'd give up and skulk away quietly. Or at least change their name so nobody can point out how badly they've humiliated themselves, like most bears on house price boards end up having to do.:D

kabayiri

I predict that anyone who makes predictions will always be wrong.

Challenge that one

nembot

Hamish, you make me chuckle