House prices 'will fall up to 10% next year and take years to recover'

kabayiri

Is economics supposed to be like a normal science subject?

If we applied the same level of predictions and estimates in mechanical engineering as economics, the channel tunnel diggers would have emerged from their dig triumphant, only to be greeted by the official Jersey welcoming committee.

kabayiri

GeneHunt wrote: »

I bought my first house in 1995. Now It's worth 5 times what I paid for it then. So it's increased 500% - so what's 10% drop anyway???

What is it with percentages on here?

A house worth 5 times what you paid for it has not increased by 500%.

CLAPTON

kabayiri wrote: »

Is economics supposed to be like a normal science subject?

If we applied the same level of predictions and estimates in mechanical engineering as economics, the channel tunnel diggers would have emerged from their dig triumphant, only to be greeted by the official Jersey welcoming committee.

I would have thought that digging tunnel was a branch of civil engineering... a subject that's pretty trivial as it was largely mastered 2,000 years ago

However, economics, ecology, climate change, string theory, psychology etc are somewhat less deterministic

olly300

kabayiri wrote: »

Is economics supposed to be like a normal science subject?

Nope. It's a social science.

kabayiri

CLAPTON wrote: »

I would have thought that digging tunnel was a branch of civil engineering... a subject that's pretty trivial as it was largely mastered 2,000 years ago

The Romans pretty much thought they had this bridge building process worked out.

Move forward nearly 2000 years to the 1940s, when that American suspension bridge collapsed due to 'the wrong sort of wind'.

I think as a species we humans like to think we are smarter than we really are. Complex problems, like big IT systems or global financial systems, still have plenty of opportunity to prove us wrong.

kabayiri

olly300 wrote: »

Nope. It's a social science.

Is this my opportunity to trot out that old joke?...

What's the difference between the sciences?

a) the Lecturer walks into a room of Arts students and says 'Good Morning'

they say 'Good Morning' back

b) the Lecturer walks into a room of Science students and says 'Good Morning'

they write it down

c) the Lecturer walks into a room of Social Science students and says 'Good Morning'

they immediately break up into groups and discuss what he mean't.

[err, I'll get mi coat]

carolt

Like that one.

worldtraveller

StevieJ wrote: »

Their housing forecasts were actually atrocious take a look at their forecasts over the years :eek:

What is the value of typically the same housing bear market / crash forecast that is rolled out every few months? This article takes a look back at Capital Economics that has been grabbing the headlines of late of having forecast the UK housing market crash of 2008. However if you dig a little deeper the actual accuracy of Capital Economics housing market forecasts evaporates into thin air.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7183.html

My post concerns the period of the 'financial crisis', where I believe that they have been more accurate than others about the general economy. It is not about the largely earlier periods that your article mentions. But, generally, as indicated by my post, I have little time for any of them. The better of several evils maybe? Can you name any better?

kabayiri

carolt wrote: »

Like that one.

Do you know the one about the definition of lecturing ?
(or teaching)

carolt

No.

Do tell.