Bulls and Bears don't exist

Conrad

The pessmist thinks;

Income multiples are too high

Lending is too lax

The recent inflation will be shown to be a dead cat

UK plc continues on a downward spiral - just as they said in the 1970s when Taiwan and co took some manufacturing from us

Exams are being dumbed down

Society is getting worse

Music ai'nt what it was (all pessmimists at all times think this - how ironic)

Films are'nt what they were

TV has gone down hill

etc

StevieJ

Conrad wrote: »

Some time ago I started using the terms pessimist and optimist, but that was'nt deemed appropriate by some. Bear and bull are'nt that helpful in a changing ,arket, but ones underlying pessimism / optimism on the way society is headed seems a permanent feature of the individual.

It seems almost down to a personality trait, some appear to see the negative whatever the news and vice versa.

StevieJ

Conrad wrote: »

The pessmist thinks;


TV has gone down hill

etc

Wait until the Tories get in and float off the BBC and allow Sky to move in on ITV :eek:
I can be one of those pessies as well

The_Fat_el_Hombre

StevieJ wrote: »

Chlamydia wrote(on this house price forum)
Don't know how spurs have managed that, but well done to them if it's all, shall we say, kosher

Kosher indeed Who are Yer?

What evryone really wants to know is whether this comment makes me a bull or a bear?

IveSeenTheLight

Cleaver wrote: »

For example, if the government announced tomorrow that they were offering lifetime 0% mortgages and a nice £20,000 gift deposit to FTBers throughout the first 6 months of 2010 I would be pretty bullish about the housing market. Who wouldn't be? If the government then announced that they were raising stamp duty to 8% for the remainder of 2010, I would suddenly become quite bearish about the housing market.

Given all the information you have in the current situation we face and knowing that situations can change, are you bullish or bearish on the housing market over the term that a property is usually purchased over?

Cleaver

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Given all the information you have in the current situation we face and knowing that situations can change, are you bullish or bearish on the housing market over the term that a property is usually purchased over?

We're in the process of buying a new house at the moment and it's a house that will probably suit us for the next 20 years I imagine (possibly longer) unless we move to a different location or our life changes in some way. Because of this decision, it's fairly obvious that we really like the house, feel it offers some form of value and that we can afford the house. So yeah, I'm happy to be buying the house and think it will be a good purchase over the longer period. In that sense I'm bullish about the housing market over the long term, but 'bullish' doesn't seem the right word. I think buying a house can be quite a sensible thing to do still, both in terms of finances and lifestyle, if that's what you mean?

I'm not particluary convinced that this house will be worth as much as we're paying for it in five years time. But then I really have no clue. It could be worth 25% more or 25% less in 2014 and I wouldn't be surprised either way. Don't actually care that much in all honesty. I'll be more bothered about having a job in 2014 to pay for the house and what interest rates are up to. Having said this, we put together a plan last weekend to get this new mortgage paid off in 7 years, which we should do if we keep our jobs and our salaries stay the same.

Given that the governement has started a lot of schemes recently and that people's love affair with buying houses seems to be insatiable I guess I could be described as quite bullish about the housing market in general over the next year or so. I really have no idea about the 5 to 10 years though. No clue whatsoever. Like lemonjelly said, I float from thinking that the housing market is still a pack of cards waiting to tumble, to reading an article and changing my mind to think that house prices will go up and up. It's one of the fun parts of not aligning yourself to one group or another: you can change your mind.

Emy1501

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Given all the information you have in the current situation we face and knowing that situations can change, are you bullish or bearish on the housing market over the term that a property is usually purchased over?

I dont even think you will find many bears on HPC who believe prices will not go up over the normal term a property is bought for. Its all about seeing property as an investment ie buying in at the bottom of any cycle, jumping out at the top and then buying in at the bottom again etc.

IveSeenTheLight

Cleaver wrote: »

Having said this, we put together a plan last weekend to get this new mortgage paid off in 7 years, which we should do if we keep our jobs and our salaries stay the same.

Excellent news. It is extremely worthwhile paying off your mortgage early. It is when I saw the light regarding our finances.
I too have a plan to pay off my mortgages early. It was to be cleared in 8 years, but the low mortgage rates have significantly reduced the outstanding capital and I will be able to pay off earlier than that (unless circumstances change)

My perspective of the housing market, I accept that prices could go down in the short term.
Given that I do not need to buy another property, I don't have a short term (1-3 years) or even a medium term (3-10 years) view.
I do firmly believe in the long term that house prices will rise. this is why I am bullish on house prices and wonder if anyone can seriously be bearish on property on the long term.

IveSeenTheLight

Emy1501 wrote: »

I dont even think you will find many bears on HPC who believe prices will not go up over the normal term a property is bought for. Its all about seeing property as an investment ie buying in at the bottom of any cycle, jumping out at the top and then buying in at the bottom again etc.

I bought one of my properties in Jan 07, no where near the bottom.
As an investment, it's going very well though

While it is ideal to buy at the bottom and sell at the top, this is a very small window of oppertunity and prone to being very wrong.

Much better to invest in sound principles rather than hoping to get the cyclical market timing correct.

Cleaver

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Much better to invest in sound principles rather than hoping to get the cyclical market timing correct.

Isn't it much better to do both?