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Tomstickland's HPI Outlook poll for the nex 12 months
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Down 5% - Up 5% (Stagnant)What will increase demand to allow people to pay for the houses do you think?
If supply is going to increase and prices are going to increase, demand has to increase.
A loosening of the purse strings by the bankers
'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
Down 5% - Up 5% (Stagnant)A loosening of the purse strings by the bankers
As long as their losses continue to increase that seems unlikely to me given that the Government appears to be running out of credit to extend to them.
How likely do you think that the last bailout will be repaid as the banks have had to be rebailed? I guess the banks can't lend more unless they can raise more capital to lend and I'm struggling to see where that'll come from.0 -
Down 5% - Up 5% (Stagnant)As long as their losses continue to increase that seems unlikely to me given that the Government appears to be running out of credit to extend to them.
How likely do you think that the last bailout will be repaid as the banks have had to be rebailed? I guess the banks can't lend more unless they can raise more capital to lend and I'm struggling to see where that'll come from.
A bit of a chicken and egg but wouldn't increasing house prices (esp in US) increase their capital?'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
Down 5% - Up 5% (Stagnant)A bit of a chicken and egg but wouldn't increasing house prices (esp in US) increase their capital?
Indirectly yes as houses that have been repossessed could be sold for more so bank losses would be reduced or even eliminated. That would apply especially in the US.
In the UK however AIUI, Government policies and pressure has resulted in reduced repossessions and problems on bank balance sheets is coming from unsecured debt defaults.0 -
Down 5% - Up 5% (Stagnant)Indirectly yes as houses that have been repossessed could be sold for more so bank losses would be reduced or even eliminated. That would apply especially in the US.
In the UK however AIUI, Government policies and pressure has resulted in reduced repossessions and problems on bank balance sheets is coming from unsecured debt defaults.
Those US sub-prime CDO's would also be up in value, thus strengthening bank balance sheets and reducing the bailout costs (long shot I admit, but could happen).'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher0 -
Down 5% - Up 5% (Stagnant)Those US sub-prime CDO's would also be up in value, thus strengthening bank balance sheets and reducing the bailout costs (long shot I admit, but could happen).
Absolutely right, IMO.
The economy is a complex beast at the best of times and all the more so right now and it would take a fool (rather than a Fool) to state unequivically what will happen.
I wonder how many CDOs are still held by banks as opposed to being bought up under TARP and other programs designed to prop up bank balance sheets.0 -
Up 5% - 15%What will increase demand to allow people to pay for the houses do you think?
If supply is going to increase and prices are going to increase, demand has to increase.
You just reversed the sequence I was proposing. Try it this way:
Prices continue to increase on current trend -> Fewer and fewer people trapped in negative equity -> Supply increases -> Price rises moderate.0 -
Up 15% - 25%There are a lot of FTBs sitting on their hands waiting for more affordable low deposit mortgages to come onto the market. Once this happens (hopefully over the next 12 months), we should see 15 - 20% house price rises over the year.0
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Down 5% - Up 5% (Stagnant)Well, we are 3 months from the end and depending on your index things look like they will vary.
But how are we all doing?0 -
Down 5% - Up 5% (Stagnant)
Dunno. What's the answer? What did happen in the last 12 months then?Well, we are 3 months from the end and depending on your index things look like they will vary.
But how are we all doing?
I was going to vote for stagnant before I realised it was an old poll .... and I looked and I voted for that last year.
Was I right? No idea.
I get confused easily/often. Squirrels!0
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