Debate House Prices


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Blanchflower joins 70% club

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macaque_2
macaque_2 Posts: 2,439 Forumite
in Debate House Prices & the Economy
House prices should fall more than 30%, says Blanchflower

You may have to wait a bit. It seems a lot of people are trying to access this webpage (panicking bulls by any chance?).

http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/video/money-property-and-tax/content.aspx?ID=366921&re=7472&ea=174368
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Comments

  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    macaque wrote: »
    You may have to wait a bit. It seems a lot of people are trying to access this webpage (panicking bulls by any chance?).

    http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/video/money-property-and-tax/content.aspx?ID=366921&re=7472&ea=174368

    Minus 70% :confused: Artithmetic not your strong point icon7.gif
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Did not see the interview but.
    if we base our expectations on the house price to earnings ratio, we are likely to see a peak to trough drop of 30%, he warns - though in fact the correction typically overshoots.

    Did not see the title reference, 40% is a big over shoot?
    Surely if you did a forecast you would try to include the overshoot. Otherwise a peak to trough forecast is not peak to trough.:confused:

    But then it was not he who warned of the overshoot, just the person writing the article I presume.
  • purch
    purch Posts: 9,865 Forumite
    1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28
    29,30,70 :eek:
    'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'
  • Mr_Mumble
    Mr_Mumble Posts: 1,758 Forumite
    A nominal drop of 30% would take us over 70% if measured in gold.
    "The state is the great fiction by which everybody seeks to live at the expense of everybody else." -- Frederic Bastiat, 1848.
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Mr_Mumble wrote: »
    A nominal drop of 30% would take us over 70% if measured in gold.

    So nominal drop of 30% is gaining more acceptance on here.:cool:;)
  • StevieJ
    StevieJ Posts: 20,174 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Mr_Mumble wrote: »
    A nominal drop of 30% would take us over 70% if measured in gold.

    What % would it be measured in tea leaves icon7.gif
    'Just think for a moment what a prospect that is. A single market without barriers visible or invisible giving you direct and unhindered access to the purchasing power of over 300 million of the worlds wealthiest and most prosperous people' Margaret Thatcher
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    StevieJ wrote: »
    What % would it be measured in tea leaves icon7.gif

    2679137757_39bf99b4bf.jpg
  • macaque_2
    macaque_2 Posts: 2,439 Forumite
    purch wrote: »
    1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28
    29,30,70

    Nice riposte, it made me smile (but not laugh).

    That said, it must be recognised that the 70% club is about perceptions, not numbers. The market correction could be 60% or it could be 80%. Only someone with a time machine can predict the turning point in a bear market. David Blanchflower has been granted membership of the 70% club for 'good articulation of Macaques opinions'. He may well have picked up some of these up from reading my posts (I have no problem with that).
  • chucknorris
    chucknorris Posts: 10,793 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    edited 9 November 2009 at 2:12PM
    macaque wrote: »
    You may have to wait a bit. It seems a lot of people are trying to access this webpage (panicking bulls by any chance?).

    http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/video/money-property-and-tax/content.aspx?ID=366921&re=7472&ea=174368

    But your 70% club is for prices to fall 70% (not fall 30% to 70%) are you now conceding that they will not fall to 30% then?

    EDIT: I see from the above post that you are not, I'm still waiting for your reply on the other thread
    Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop
  • Really2
    Really2 Posts: 12,397 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    macaque wrote: »
    Nice riposte, it made me smile (but not laugh).

    That said, it must be recognised that the 70% club is about perceptions, not numbers.

    Now that did make me laugh. :)
    Call it the #% club.

    It's like Prince all over again.
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