The property market and reality

chucky

carolt wrote: »

No they're not, because at least 60% of the posts are made by about 2 posters. In real life, 2 people with lots of time on their hands don't actually have 60% of the influence or buy 60% of the property.

Thus if this place reflected real life, half my street would belong to Hamish. But it doesn't. Mercifully.

The days when this board was representative, if they ever existed, are long gone.

oh dear

when people have to resort to this as an argument... they obviously don't have much going for them... :rolleyes:

tomstickland

Macaque, you're at the very extreme end of predictions, and you've been consistently wrong, you've not even been directionally right. A lesser person would start to question their own infallibility, but given that you don't it's not all that fruitful arguing with you.


But people are affording prices. Even during the most stringent period of lending since deregulation, prices are rising, and that should tell you something.

Prices aren't rising though. I've been observing local houses on Rightmove. You can buy things today for less than in 2008.

Generali

chucky wrote: »

i've never seen anyone post about 15% HPI predictions each year on here.
can you tell me who makes this posts?

When I first started posting on here, I used to be ridiculed by some for suggesting that house prices would ever rise by less than double digits and abused for suggesting that the price of a house could be lower at some point in the future than on that date.

Pete111

tomstickland wrote: »

Prices aren't rising though. I've been observing local houses on Rightmove. You can buy things today for less than in 2008.

There are in pretty much all decent parts of London and a lot of the the SE. And given the money/ % population within that area, it drives a lot of sentiment.

Example: friends of mine in Surrey putting their house on the market in teh new year having seen recent sales in their neck of the woods go for only 5-10% off peak (was 20%+ down at the start of 09). They hope to be able to get close to peak - we shall see I guess!

chucky

Generali wrote: »

When I first started posting on here, I used to be ridiculed by some for suggesting that house prices would ever rise by less than double digits and abused for suggesting that the price of a house could be lower at some point in the future than on that date.

the below is probably the reverse of what was happening then

tomstickland wrote: »

Prices aren't rising though. I've been observing local houses on Rightmove. You can buy things today for less than in 2008.

carolt

Pete111 wrote: »

There are in pretty much all decent parts of London and a lot of the the SE. And given the money/ % population within that area, it drives a lot of sentiment.

Example: friends of mine in Surrey putting their house on the market in teh new year having seen recent sales in their neck of the woods go for only 5-10% off peak (was 20%+ down at the start of 09). They hope to be able to get close to peak - we shall see I guess!

No, not all parts of the SE - the reverse applies where I live.

Maybe it varies from area to area?

julieq

It's certainly true on the A23 corridor. So we're gradually narrowing down where Carol's data is coming from.

chucky

Pete111 wrote: »

There are in pretty much all decent parts of London and a lot of the the SE. And given the money/ % population within that area, it drives a lot of sentiment.

Example: friends of mine in Surrey putting their house on the market in teh new year having seen recent sales in their neck of the woods go for only 5-10% off peak (was 20%+ down at the start of 09). They hope to be able to get close to peak - we shall see I guess!

i'm seeing the same in the South East - however, there are few areas that are struggling still, they are probably the less popular and less desirable areas though.

Harry_Powell

Wookster wrote: »

The property market is indeed disconnected from the real economy.

I just have to laugh at the bulls. We've are in the midst of the worst recession in 80 years and yet the bulls think we'll still see 15% HPI year on year ad infinitum.

What I'd like to know is where do the bulls think it will stop? Is there ever a point when prices are too high to be sustained by the economy?

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0054391/

Can we please stop misusing the stockmarket terms 'bears' and 'bulls' on here?

If you have to use a phrase to represent those who you perceive to want HPI and those you perceive to want HPC why not have:

Jets (HPI) vs Sharks (HPC) - ala West Side Story
Capulet (HPI) Vs Montague (HPC) - ala Romeo and Juliet
Surgeons (HPI) vs Doctors (HPC) - ala Scrubs

etc. etc.

No one is a lifetime member of the 'bull' or 'bear' club, people are bullish or bearish about a particular market for a particular amount of time. Many people were bullish about the stockmarket over the last three months and may now have taken their profits and become bearish about it over the next few months, hence the recent falls.

In the same way, people could have been bearish about the housing market in the lead up to the 2007 HPC, but after the government put into place the various schemes (such as QE), could have become bullish about the housing market over the short term.

Basically what I'm trying to say is that 'bull' and 'bear' are not fixed states that you're born into. By missusing them on here, people are making themselves look like idiots and by association they make other users of the forum look foolish. Stop it, you fools!

Pete111

carolt wrote: »

No, not all parts of the SE - the reverse applies where I live.

Maybe it varies from area to area?

Fair enough Carol no doubt it will vary in the SE. The area I am referring to is relatively desireable for people looking to escape the smoke but there are quite a few similarly affluent towns/areas within 15-30 miles of London that are seeing the same effects I believe.

Anecdotally and according to many indices, London is going a bit loopy again though - will probably tail off over Xmas but will be interesting to see what happens into 2010