The property market and reality

the_ash_and_the_oak

Harry_Powell wrote: »

Plus the overused "bulls" and "bears" stockmarket terms are actually used completely wrongly on this board and always make me cringe. They're used here to describe the supporters of HPC and HPI as two separate gangs, ala West Side story.

I suggest people who use these terms on here should perhaps learn what they actually mean. No one is a lifetime bull or bear, it's a feeling you have for the market and as the market changes, so should your bearish or bullish outlook.

Absolutely! but this is MSE so a certain amount of hysteria should be expected (its not even a bad thing imo - MSE's strength isn't analysis its as a guide to wider sentiment)

Graham_Devon

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Absolutely! but this is MSE so a certain amount of hysteria should be expected (its not even a bad thing imo - MSE's strength isn't analysis its as a guide to wider sentiment)

Actually, thats a brilliant way of looking at it!

macaque_2

Julieq

A 30 year cumulative trend is a far better measure of, well, trends than a date cherry picked at the bottom of the cycle to make a point Generali, that's surely obvious? ....... Macaque, you're at the very extreme end of predictions, and you've been consistently wrong, you've not even been directionally right.

So a 30 year sample is needed to disprove your vision of the future but a 1 year sample is sufficient to declare that I am "not even directionally right" Hmmmmm

But people are affording prices. Even during the most stringent period of lending since deregulation, prices are rising, and that should tell you something.

Thin market trading is not a reliable guide to sustainable prices. You are even at odds with estate agents on this one.

There is a lot of demand for limited stock against a high rate of household creation, we don't have massive unemployment, and with two reasonable salaries there's really no problem in reaching prices of average houses on average salaries.

We will have to wait normal interest rates and the end of quantitative easing to see the full impact of unemployment. Salary growth in recent years has largely been linked to public sector jobs. The public sector are about to get a very cold shower.

And where is it written that there should be affordability in any case? Spreading the cost of accomodation over 40 or 60 years via rental is the historic norm, high rates of ownership,

The affordability thing is common sense. If people cannot afford something, they don't buy it, no matter how much they need it. Ultimately, the value of property has to be linked to fundamentals. As things stand rents are not only falling but defaults on rent payments are soaring.

You take me to task for saying I'm clouded by my personal wishes; actually I'm not, I have no mortgage and it's a matter of complete irrelevance to me what happens to prices, I'm just attempting to understand what is happening and why.

You are a property owner and you are indifferent to price trends. Hmmmmm (again)

ruggedtoast

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Absolutely! but this is MSE so a certain amount of hysteria should be expected (its not even a bad thing imo - MSE's strength isn't analysis its as a guide to wider sentiment)

MSE might be but this board isn't.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Less so since they made it members only (which has diluted its usefulness/interest in that regard yes) but things like the reactions to monthly figures - these are pretty representative of "the man in the street" imo (newspapers are also good for this obv)

chucknorris

Wookster wrote: »

The property market is indeed disconnected from the real economy.

I just have to laugh at the bulls. We've are in the midst of the worst recession in 80 years and yet the bulls think we'll still see 15% HPI year on year ad infinitum.

Who expects this? No one I know does, and no wonder it's obviously impossible

What I'd like to know is where do the bulls think it will stop? Is there ever a point when prices are too high to be sustained by the economy?

That point arrives every time the housing market cycle hits the top and a correction takes place, it happened in the 1970's, late 80s/early 90's and right now. It will probably happen again around about 2025.

Harry_Powell

macaque wrote: »

You are a property owner and you are indifferent to price trends. Hmmmmm (again)

TBF, from what I had heard from home owners who bought before the boom, the small dips and rises in the current 'crash' don't really bother them, hence why some on here are sympathetic to FTBers, because they have already made a fortune from the 300% rises and so a 10% here or there is meaningless to them.

I'm sure if we did have the 70% drops, they would be rioting in the streets.

carolt

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Less so since they made it members only (which has diluted its usefulness/interest in that regard yes) but things like the reactions to monthly figures - these are pretty representative of "the man in the street" imo (newspapers are also good for this obv)

No they're not, because at least 60% of the posts are made by about 2 posters. In real life, 2 people with lots of time on their hands don't actually have 60% of the influence or buy 60% of the property.

Thus if this place reflected real life, half my street would belong to Hamish. But it doesn't. Mercifully.

The days when this board was representative, if they ever existed, are long gone.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Its a good guide to sentiment imo because what you see here that you might not see in more ...analytical places...is the sentiment itself - its a hugely emotive subject for many imo - MSE's strength is that emotion really comes out (and it is an important driver) - so imo its a pretty good barometer for that

chucky

Wookster wrote: »

I just have to laugh at the bulls. We've are in the midst of the worst recession in 80 years and yet the bulls think we'll still see 15% HPI year on year ad infinitum.

i've never seen anyone post about 15% HPI predictions each year on here.
can you tell me who makes this posts?