A recession success story...

the_ash_and_the_oak

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I predicted 22% and I'm considered a bull.
I guess it's cause of my long term view

Considered by who?

IveSeenTheLight

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

This doesn't make any sense! "I am a bull I think prices will fall 15-20%". You were a bear.

It can make sense.
It depends if you are talking about UK averages or local areas.

I personally thought that the UK average needed to correct by 22% but that my local vested interest area would not be affected as much due to affordability ratios

the_ash_and_the_oak

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

It can make sense.
It depends if you are talking about UK averages or local areas.

I personally thought that the UK average needed to correct by 22% but that my local vested interest area would not be affected as much due to affordability ratios

Then you were a bear about the UK and bullish about your own area. Its possible to have nuanced views imo

IveSeenTheLight

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Then you were a bear about the UK and bullish about your own area. Its possible to have nuanced views imo

It wasn't accepted on here.
I was considered to be stupid and that falls would happen uniformly across all parts of the UK :rolleyes:

Here's where I made my points, broadly based on the long term trend of house prices.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=12813653&postcount=6

I also said here they would cross in 2009. They only just did.
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=15902741&postcount=189

Going forward, we are still above that long term trend and I think prices will drop (on average) over the winter months.

Am I a bear for these thoughts, I don't think so.
I've bought property as an investment because I believe in long term benefits and realise that the capital value can go up and down.
I do firmly believe that over the term of my investments that they will as a bonus be worth more than they were initially purchased for.

IveSeenTheLight

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

Then you were a bear about the UK and bullish about your own area. Its possible to have nuanced views imo

To be honest, I really dont subscribe to the bull / bear labelling.
It's others who tend to want to label people.

I believe that the UK prices will go down over the winter, but up in the next few years.
Where would you label me now? Do you need dates so that the label can be swapped around :rolleyes:

the_ash_and_the_oak

No idea why whether it was accepted 'on here' is of any importance imo. Really no idea who 'the bears' back then even were or why their viewpoints or who they accepted are of any interest.

You thought 20% falls were on the way - sounds bearish to me. You now think we are done with falls - doesn't sound bearish to me. You've held different positions at different times. I'm the same, I wear a tshirt in summer and a coat in winter

the_ash_and_the_oak

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

To be honest, I really dont subscribe to the bull / bear labelling.
It's others who tend to want to label people.

I believe that the UK prices will go down over the winter, but up in the next few years.
Where would you label me now? Do you need dates so that the label can be swapped around :rolleyes:

Agree w this. Thats why I don't really understand all these posts about 'the bears' and 'the bulls'

Thrugelmir

StevieJ wrote: »

What about the 70% club what about the Brit 50% by Christmas I put it to you Mlud that it was bulls that were predicting 20-30% falls the bears were predicting/hoping for catastrophe :eek: Unless of course you are saying that they have changed their mind.

and there will the extreme bulls that expect prices to be back at 2007 levels by 2012.......

Predicting catastrophe is little more attention seeking......

StevieJ

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

No idea why whether it was accepted 'on here' is of any importance imo. Really no idea who 'the bears' back then even were or why their viewpoints or who they accepted are of any interest.

You thought 20% falls were on the way - sounds bearish to me. You now think we are done with falls - doesn't sound bearish to me. You've held different positions at different times. I'm the same, I wear a tshirt in summer and a coat in winter

To quote JMK.

'When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?'

sabretoothtigger

I would call a 22% fall significant enough. Bears merely feel that the market is overpriced and overvalued on a macro level

Its more then a 22% fall when you include inflation