Ok - interest rates to rise - but WHEN??

lemonjelly

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

small rise end of 2010 back upto 0.50% after the cut to 0.25% we are going to get between now and then...

Inspector, do you still think this'll be Novemeber?

purch wrote: »

The Base Rate will not exceed 1% before end of 2010.

I feel I should disagree with you, yet at the same time feel like I can't!:eek:

I think there is a small chance we could get a little higher than that as we approach the end of 2010, inflation depending of course.

Treadmill

2011/2012.

mitchaa

By December 2010, 2.5-3.5% easy.

inspector_monkfish

lemonjelly wrote: »

Inspector, do you still think this'll be Novemeber?



I feel I should disagree with you, yet at the same time feel like I can't!:eek:

I think there is a small chance we could get a little higher than that as we approach the end of 2010, inflation depending of course.

November could be the cut to the rate that BOE pay Banks to deposit with them, not the Base rate.

Conrad

All churlish talk.

Merv has gone out of his way to drive home the point anyone who claims to have a feel for rate direction is a liar. NO ONE ON THE PLANET KNOWS.

boyse7en

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

are you on drugs?
you seem to be getting a bit high there :D

If only! The sardonic/ironic tone of voice in my head when I was typing has failed to come across very well / at all on the page.
I've got no idea on interest rates, but i certainly don't think it will go up much - certainly not as much as my earlier post seemed to suggest.

Possibly

Really2

maveli wrote: »

I will listen to anyone who predicted it will fall to 0.5%. All others are just gessing which as good/bad as mine and yours.

We talked about 0.5% before it was happened ( it was predicted by some papers:))

Personally can't see Base above 5% for another 5 years +.

hearts

Why do people think the tories will raise interest rates soon after they are elected? I would have thought it was the last thing they'd want to do. They must surely try to keep rates low for as long as possible to allow time for a sustained recovery.

Really2

hearts wrote: »

Why do people think the tories will raise interest rates soon after they are elected? I would have thought it was the last thing they'd want to do. They must surely try to keep rates low for as long as possible to allow time for a sustained recovery.

Correct, and mean as the Tory's will want to keep small business's going an growing (unlike labours tescoland). Expensive credit will not help expansion.

nollag2006

LizEstelle wrote: »

Nobody can foresee BoE dropping below 0.5%; everyone says the next move has to be up...

Really? The US and Japan have had nil interest rates, and Sweden has had negative rates.

Still plenty of room in the UK to cut, but I don’t think its likely. Even though inflation is well below 2% and dropping, I think its unlikely (but not impossible) that interest rates will fall much further in the UK.

In terms of a likely rise date, even the wildest bears are predicting no rises before the end of 2010:
http://www.lovemoney.com/news/the-property-ladder/get-ready-for-the-housing-crash-part-ii-3994.aspx?source=1000417

As a moderate bull, I think that we will see no rises above 0.5% for the next two years, with the possibility of rates falling to 0.25% if the recent strength in the housing market starts to wane (but there is no sign of that yet, thank goodness)