what the blazes is going on in the markets today and yesterday

free4440273

Deemy wrote:

It may well turn into a bloodbath, but at this point in time, the probability favours a significant correction, it all depends on how it corrects and where it tries to make a base, if it is substantially below major support than that would imply that the 'correction' is only the first leg of something far worse !

.

i am holding up the mirror (to my original post):) :
"presently, this is a temporary short-term 'correction'. we will see a pick-up in the markets. but historically speaking, we have seen this pattern before: the market reaching a (near) high; followed by a substantial dip; followed by the market attempting to scale the previous high it never quite reached; followed by the proper and real correction - a bloodbath. also, historically speaking, we might have to wait for october for the bloodbath to occur, which it will".

moneytroll

"Its better (for me anyway) to be sat on the sidelines until the market makes its intentions known !"

the 1million dollar (preferably euros these days :-) question is: won't you only know the market's intentions until it has done whatever it is supposed to do?

"the probability favours a significant correction"

probability based on what? it's all very interesting, but also speculative... sitting on sidelines may be sensible, but might also prevent one from appreciating sharp gains immediately after market bottommed. so we won't know for sure till it happens..whatever is going to happen.
rebalancing might be most sensible option in these circumstances. (though still not convinced that gilts/bonds will provide the type of security in the near future as they did in the past. would chose cash over bonds for the next few years. they are experiencing an unusual situation and are still ridiculously overpriced)

cheerfulcat

free4440273 wrote:

i never said i was short, nor long, nor anything in between.

That is what I asked you to correct. Someone expressing quite such an apocalyptic view of the markets as yours has a moral obligation to clarify his or her own position therein. Without such clarification it is in any case impossible to take the opinion seriously.

I ask again - why are you hoping for a crash?

free4440273

cheerfulcat wrote:

That is what I asked you to correct. Someone expressing quite such an apocalyptic view of the markets as yours has a moral obligation to clarify his or her own position therein. Without such clarification it is in any case impossible to take the opinion seriously.

I ask again - why are you hoping for a crash?

it's not for me to justify my presence here. i clarified my position quite eloquently. the fact is, you believe in going long; there is nothing intrinsically wrong with that. with regards to 'taking it seriously', that cuts both ways i think you will find

meanmachine_2

What I find faintly amusing about all this is that Sky etc wheel on these equities experts, all of whom are, without fail, bullish about the market.

I don't recall any of them predicting a significant correction this week, or last.

Pathetic.

They're about as expert as the estate agents that News 24 et al bring on to give an "expert" view of the market.

I'm no "expert" myself, but I do know that huge oil prices feed into inflation eventually. They did in the 70s, they will again.

No more boom and bust? My a*se.

moneytroll

Thanks for posting your fund selection. It's interesting to see what people are up to :-)

I would say it's a very risky portfolio (if you don't mind me saying). Quite underweight in UK (unless you also run an HYP). I would consider buying more UK funds - there are some v good managers around, apart from Bolton, despite the majority of useless ones. The good ones tend to take "defensive" positions when appropriate to minimize downside...Though it's all "words", only the longterm performance (of 20+ years) will prove whether they put our money, where their mouth :-)

You have a lot of weight (proportionally) in specialist funds. It's not advice, just something to think about for the (possibly) more turbulent times ahead...
Also make sure you don't have all your "eggs" in the stockmarket...
(Let's see if I gonna get edited out again...:-)

cloud_dog

Just a couple of comments..........

DFC, I like the look of your portfolio and that is the type of spread I had beofre deciding to invest directly in companies. For MoneyTroll I accept your position regarding specialist funds but they allow focus and, in some respects diversification.

Regarding your ".....underweight in the UK....." comment, nothing wrong with it but it is a position that is utilised by advisers so as to limit investors foreign currency exposure, etc, etc. There is no hard and fast rule to say you need to have a many / any UK investments.

One other point........... I do beleive there will be a significant correction (are we there yet - who knows). Wrt what causes corrections and anything else related to stock markets, etc, its down to human phsycological involvement. The trigger could be something relatively small but, when the herd start moving everyone else follows.

(Sorry) One other last point...........wrt the Tech bubble bursting. The experts were pretty much all saying "....were in a bubble, its gonna burst, etc,etc" a number of months before it happened (late 1999, poss Oct / Nov) but from this point the Tech indexes rose another 60% before the actual crash (Mar 2000), sooooo plenty of opportunities out there (assuming you have your entry / exit points clearly identified.

Happy hunting.......cloud_dog

Debt_Free_Chick

moneytroll wrote:

Thanks for posting your fund selection. It's interesting to see what people are up to :-)

The suggestion of a separate investing board would be ideal for us all to compare our portfolios

Thanks for your comments - all very valid. I'm responding in the hope that others, particularly less experienced investors, might find them useful.

I would say it's a very risky portfolio (if you don't mind me saying).

Yes it is

This is really "play money" for me (with respect to those for whom this would represent a small fortune) - it's deliberately high-risk as I want to get as much growth as I can in the next 15 years. If I lose it all, it won't affect my retirement income and I'll just ride it out.

It's quite odd really ... it's money that I don't need ... but I'd quite like more of it, if you see what I mean.

Quite underweight in UK

It's deliberate. I don't see enough growth prospects in the UK to excite me. I don't like the FTSE-100, with its weighting in a handful of big stocks. I think the UK economy will show steady but unspectacular growth over the next 15 years, whereas the other economies seem to have more scope.

You have a lot of weight (proportionally) in specialist funds.

Again, deliberate. It's intended to be an equity portfolio, but I opted to choose the regions. The split is not at all scientific and just what appealed at the time.

It's not advice, just something to think about for the (possibly) more turbulent times ahead...
Also make sure you don't have all your "eggs" in the stockmarket...
(Let's see if I gonna get edited out again...:-)

A very good point. I also have about £60k in cash - far too much and I'll want to do something else with it in the next few years. I may need to spend some of it on home improvements, but I'm going to try and fund those from income. So I'll be saving less in the next couple of years whilst I fund the home improvements. But I won't sacrifice the ongoing equity investments. I plan to put no more into mini cash ISAs and will continue with maxi ISAs instead, almost exclusively in equities.

I've also dipped my toe into a UK corporate bond fund, simply to see if I can get (taxed) growth in excess of what I would have got in cash. Should be do-able. I've got £7,500 in Aegon Sterling Corporate Bond.

Hope this of interest to somebody

Debt_Free_Chick

cloud_dog wrote:

One other point........... I do beleive there will be a significant correction (are we there yet - who knows). Wrt what causes corrections and anything else related to stock markets, etc, its down to human phsycological involvement. The trigger could be something relatively small but, when the herd start moving everyone else follows.

You are absolutely right in this. It's sssoooo annoying that very many falls in the market are simply down to human nature, rather than a fundamental revaluation of the market. If there were a fundamental revaluation, it would emerge in dribs & drabs over a period - certainly longer than one day and probably as long as a year.

Of course, revaluations of individual stocks do occur - fairly frequently - but rarely trigger a fall in the entire market.

Thanks for your comments re my portfolio. In the past, I've invested lump sums, but this year I'm investing the maximum amount into a maxi ISA in monthly contributions. This way, I should benefit from "pound-cost averaging" and if the markets continue to fall, I'll be buying at a cheaper price ... which hold me in good stead over the next few years.

I think I need a slice of Japan ..... there simply must be plenty of recovery there in the next 15 years (my time horizon).

Cheers

shokadelika

I think I need a slice of Japan ..... there simply must be plenty of recovery there in the next 15 years (my time horizon).

Cheers [/QUOTE]
Me too been looking at japan for a while two of the best and consistent seem to be Investment Tsts run By Baille Gifford they are Japan and Shin Nippon their Pacific tst is also a star performer against even their own Unit trusts.Drip feeding might be the way or £250 min lump sum for purchase in any of their Investment Trusts.Should be fine unless there are any earthquakes over the next 15 years!.Good luck.This is my own opinion and is not advice to invest.