Could UK house prices follow Japan?

mewbie_2

Cleaver wrote: »

Snowman? There's Tommy Cooper, a car, a mountaineer and a tree.

Think I need to 'brush up' on my MS Paint skills.

So my intepretation of the Snowman with a stick of dynamite in his head, repesenting the hopes of those counter revolutionaries on here, among whom I am pleased to call myself comrade mewbie - idealogues yes, but new realists also in a troubled world - anyway I digress - but Tommy Cooper rather spoils my plot line.

Although, does he not typify the two faced behaviour of the BTL ruling class - with his "not like this like that" attitude?

Cleaver

mewbie wrote: »

Although, does he not typify the two faced behaviour of the BTL ruling class - with his "not like this like that" attitude?

Does this help you any:

mewbie_2

Also you have played with the scales there, thus distorting the picture for your own ends. No way could either the tiny person, or the huge head actually drive the car. In a way you have undone yourself, because your false view shows up the bubble for the dream it was, false hopes and promises. Where once there was green and pleasant land - now there is only Fergus.

When the final history is written though, Comrade Cleaver, then we will see the return of the stick people masses to the housing market, and they wont be struggling to drive a yellow Fiat Punto up a mountain either.

edit: btw Cleaver I absolutely love your graphs, a book beckons. I was thinking about the Mewbie level of sarcasm one earlier today.

Cleaver

mewbie wrote: »

edit: btw Cleaver I absolutely love your graphs, a book beckons. I was thinking about the Mewbie level of sarcasm one earlier today.

Thanks. Although I would imagine that a book that includes graph of average houses prices in the UK with crude drawings of a tree and a yellow car and a copy and paste of a BTL landlord's head might only appeal to quite a niche market. And by niche market I mean just you.

mewbie_2

Cleaver wrote: »

Thanks. Although I would imagine that a book that includes graph of average houses prices in the UK with crude drawings of a tree and a yellow car and a copy and paste of a BTL landlord's head might only appeal to quite a niche market. And by niche market I mean just you.

Well, and sorry to disappoint but I probably wouldn't pay for it. Just pick it up at HMV counter, it would be one of those little books they try to flog, flick through it while the youth determines whether they still stock Creedence Clearwater Revival records and then tells me they've never heard of them. I'd pop the book back and go looking for some other stocking filler (I only go shopping at Xmas).

Cleaver

You know one (of the many) things I like about you Mewbs? You're a quite guarded personality on here and don't give much up about yourself. Then every now and again there's a little post from you that provides a lovely insight in to the world of mewbie.

IveSeenTheLight

mewbie wrote: »

Just for fun I looked at the two low points and imagined a straight line running through them to the next low point. I wonder if that could happen?

For fun, draw a line from the three high points, what is your point?

It's not about picking two points and drawing a line, the line represents the long term trend of what the average UK house price should be at that given time from known hostorical and factual data

mewbie_2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

For fun, draw a line from the three high points, what is your point?

It's not about picking two points and drawing a line, the line represents the long term trend of what the average UK house price should be at that given time from known hostorical and factual data

My point, although made in jest, was this. If you look at the two low points, the dips, and draw a straight line through time - that might indicate the next dip. Which would put the average price at that low point c. 100k.

I think it is a perfectly reasonable way to use the graph data, and complements nicely the beloved trend line.

What d'ya reckon ISTL - 100k low in four years time?

IveSeenTheLight

mewbie wrote: »

My point, although made in jest, was this. If you look at the two low points, the dips, and draw a straight line through time - that might indicate the next dip. Which would put the average price at that low point c. 100k.

I think it is a perfectly reasonable way to use the graph data, and complements nicely the beloved trend line.

What d'ya reckon ISTL - 100k low in four years time?

I think, you may be hoping for this but it is unlikely to actually occur.

IveSeenTheLight

mewbie wrote: »

I think it is a perfectly reasonable way to use the graph data, and complements nicely the beloved trend line.

I would disagree on the basis that a £20k rise in properties in 1982 would represent a 50% rise in house prices, while the same rise in 2001 would only represent a 16% rise.

This means that as time goes forward, the graph scaling will always indicate an upwards curve of the sttraight line you are hoping to come to fruition.

This is why it also appears that historically the rises were not so much when compared on a graph against recent rises, even though we can prove that the rises in the 70's exceded those we have seen in the last decade

It's all about understanding the information the graph shows and understanding the effects of scaling.