Could UK house prices follow Japan?

mewbie_2

Interesting set of figures - for those who find such things interesting of course.


http://blogs.thisismoney.co.uk/this_is_money_blog/2009/09/why-britains-house-price-crash-is-far-from-finished.html

pickles110564

Mewbie, to tired to read a report. Would you be so kind and do you normal summing up please.

Generali

pickles110564 wrote: »

Mewbie, to tired to read a report. Would you be so kind and do you normal summing up please.

Summary:

The Economist is an amazingly good magazine considering how dreadful most British media are these days*.

Since 1997 in the UK wages have risen 55% and house prices have risen 170% thus house prices must fall.





*An interesting argument considering how dreadful the Daily Mail is.

StevieJ

Statistics are a strange beast, the article refers to a starting point of 1997 which is not long after the low point in the '90's housing crash' when house prices were selling at bargain prices.

carolt

To be fair, Stevie, the article compares house prices growth over that period in a whole long list of major countries - other than South Africa (which obviously has political factors at play), we are right at the top of the international league, along with Ireland and Spain - and we all know what's happened to their housing markets and their economies.

Thanks mewbs - good spot.

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

To be fair, Stevie, the article compares house prices growth over that period in a whole long list of major countries - other than South Africa (which obviously has political factors at play), we are right at the top of the international league, along with Ireland and Spain - and we all know what's happened to their housing markets and their economies.

Thanks mewbs - good spot.

To be fair, carolt, if the starting point wasn't at the trough of the last house price correction, you wouldn't have the same HPI persentage

carolt

To be fair, ISTL, the last trough was pretty much thesame for most countries - still doesn't explain why the UK is at the top of the league, or why we should fare any differently than Ireland or Spain.

kennyboy66_2

StevieJ wrote: »

Statistics are a strange beast.

Indeed.

Chose Jan 1990 as your starting point and you get;

Nationwide index 158% increase
Earnings per national statistics 126% increase.

Or if you use the Halifax data set from Jan 1990.

Halifax index 132% increase
Earnings increase 145% increase.

* The halifax earnings is average male earnings (mean), probably not the best average to use.

HammersFan

kennyboy66 wrote: »

Indeed.

Chose Jan 1990 as your starting point and you get;

Nationwide index 158% increase
Earnings per national statistics 126% increase.

Or if you use the Halifax data set from Jan 1990.

Halifax index 132% increase
Earnings increase 145% increase.

* The halifax earnings is average male earnings (mean), probably not the best average to use.

Good post kenny. Anyone aching to buy, and anyone aching not to buy will find comfort in house price statistics. Its good that people see the OP link and get a bit scared of taking the plunge - it means that they aren't ready for the risks and responsibilities of home ownership, so figures like this do them a favour really.

StevieJ

To be fair Kenny, some interesting stats there especially when you consider the respective interest rates.

IveSeenTheLight

carolt wrote: »

To be fair, ISTL, the last trough was pretty much thesame for most countries - still doesn't explain why the UK is at the top of the league, or why we should fare any differently than Ireland or Spain.

I wonder what all the countries indices would be if they started in 1989.
[edit]
Oh, I see Kenny has already done this above for the UK and compared it against wage increases.
That's interesting isn't it
[/edit]

As for comparing against other countries, do they have the same home ownership desire as the people in the UK?
I thought that in Europe, there is a higher tendancy to rent even though property is cheaper