The Market Astounds me!

Ems*Honie

meanmachine wrote:

This whole "keeping a home as a pension" is a temporary fad.

You'll soon realise it's crazy when the working population starts to reduce (which it will do big time from 2010).

All you can hope for is that we continue our open door immigration policy, otherwise you'll find you won't have anyone to sell your house to.

Can you be more descriptive Meanmachine? Your very loosley predicting the complete breakdown, not just of the property market, but also the countries workforce? Why would people cease to work and buy houses within the next 10/15 yrs?

MOLLYBRUSH

Ems I did a reply to you but it has disappeared - hope I haven't posted in on a totally unrelated forum!! I would say that in your position you seem to be well covered. I think the market is unpredictable and certainly the "crash" is not inevitable - so if you can cover your position if it goes the wrong way then over long term you should be able to weather the storm. Its those who think the market can only go one way and are in over their heads that are at risk.

I would also be interested to hear more about the reduction of workforce and consequent scarcity of buyers which mean-machine alluded to.

Ems*Honie

Thanks Mollybrush, we certainly dont think for a minute that we infallible! However I am worried as I think its only right to be. we decided that we can sit tight here, and limit our future, or we can take the risk.

Advice on this forum is very good, although of course there are extremes either way, and its reassuring to run stuff by Mse'ers. We have already taken advice on board, so I'm not looking for yes men posts lol! (I say that, as you do at times see posters wh only want to see the your right post's and argue/take offence from any other answer)

silvercar

Do you all think we're mad, we are aware of the impending crash, and are not assuming house prices will keep going up, but hope we can ride it out the other side keeping one house as a home, one as a pension.

I think demand will outstrip supply and they may be a calming down but there won't be any fall - particularly in the long term. Everytime the doom and gloom merchants say they are waiting a year before buying they miss out on a years growth and then prophosise that this year will definitely see a fall. Like continually betting on evens in roulette because you just know the next number will be black. If I had sold my house 18 months ago when the scare stories started I wouldn't be able to afford to buy it back now.

MOLLYBRUSH

Yes that's true and it goes back even further. I bought a house in France 3 years ago and my brother advised against it. He even got me to read an article in the Economist which prophesied crashing prices all over Europe and it had all the economic facts to substantiate it. It scared me but I was prepared to take the risk with that one and so glad I did, but I can still see that these economic indicators are correct and I have never really seen a satisfactory explanation of why property still goes up in the face of the evidence which shows that it shouldn't be. Again, i'll quote the dot.com bubble. If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is. Like the original poster said, it is "astounding".

nmiah786

silvercar wrote:

I think demand will outstrip supply and they may be a calming down but there won't be any fall - particularly in the long term. Everytime the doom and gloom merchants say they are waiting a year before buying they miss out on a years growth and then prophosise that this year will definitely see a fall. Like continually betting on evens in roulette because you just know the next number will be black. If I had sold my house 18 months ago when the scare stories started I wouldn't be able to afford to buy it back now.

Its always good to hear a balanced argument, backed by facts.:D

Yes there are risk involved but as long as you are prepared for the rise/fall, then thats your choice!!!

Everybody needs to justify there choices!!! i.e. one of my friend was saying all throughout last year that prices in his area are dropping (he was not looking at buying at all). However recently, he has started looking at buying and guess what he is say "PRICES ARE INCREASING IN THAT SAME AREA". :eek:

batley1

irnbru wrote:

Have you put your name down with a Housing Association?

Or looked into Shared-Ownership schemes?

Yes, we did 3 years ago, but because we had adequate housing, we were 'not a housing priority. But our adequate housing costs us twice as much and once again, the right to buy policy means theres even more of a shortage on housing association estates. My mother lives with a Housing Association, so I even got a heads up. But to no avail.

As for shared ownership, I haven't really heard of that.

reformedspender

This might sound like a daft and ignorant question, but what exactly happened last time the market crashed? I'm in my early 30s and if I'm honest I don't really remember the details. Was it an overnight thing, or did prices begin to slide slowly? How long did it take for people to notice the falls? The crash took place over a number of years didn't it?

hitman_uk

I was speaking to a guy the other day whos a builder in his 60's and he remebers the crash. I asked the same question and he said it was littereally overnight. Not sure how tru it is

Conrad

Ems*Honie wrote:

Thanks Mollybrush, we certainly dont think for a minute that we infallible! However I am worried as I think its only right to be. we decided that we can sit tight here, and limit our future, or we can take the risk.

Advice on this forum is very good, although of course there are extremes either way, and its reassuring to run stuff by Mse'ers. We have already taken advice on board, so I'm not looking for yes men posts lol! (I say that, as you do at times see posters wh only want to see the your right post's and argue/take offence from any other answer)

hello ems

Ive sold my 4 UK B2Ls. After carefully looking at all the costs I found the rent only just covered the TOTAL outgoings including maintenance, gas checks etc, which effectively meant I was getting a yield of about 3% on my money (that is the money I personally introduced as deposit).

To make matters worse capital growth is less and less worthwhile the longer the party goes on.

Furthermore everyone is getting into B2L - this is a big warning sign. Throughout history 'bubbles' pop once 'everyone' joins in.


I noticed a big movement into property investing abroad and I think in 10 years this will be as popular as UK B2L is now.

I made my mind up and have been investing abroad since as the capital growth is far far higher as long as you dont follow the Spain, Bulgaria or Dubai crowd. Those markets are overdone so hold just as much danger as the UK.

To give u an example I found a plot of land on Great Exuma in the Bahammas in Feb2004 (lots of UK buyers were there then). It was $130000. They now change hands at $750000! I actually lost this plot, so Im gutted.

My recent investments are Berlin and Saidia in Morocco (https://www.lejardindefleur.com).
Another good bet is Estonia. It is set to become a high tech hub of Europe and its safe to buy.

2 TIPS - always find your own lawyer and make sure its a large reputable firm based in the capital city and you will not go wrong. Never ever use the Agents recommended laywer.

I also always invest in stock market based investments such as Unit Trusts spread accross world markets (again only a herd follower would put all into the FTSE UK market).

My stock market investments have doubled in value over 2 years yet the UK property I have left (a shop plus main home) has'nt done much.

Investing has to be about finding new markets sometimes. Simply doing something because lots of others do can be a mistake.

But what do I know?