Is the Smart Money Leaving Property?

lostinrates

mewbie wrote: »

4 months ago Generali typed something that made me think "hmm, interesting", but since then.... nothing.

yeah, but even then we had more people. we've dwindled, and there is not much new blood, and gen probably gets bored of saying the same stuff over and over (I get embarrased to ask him to eplain something again)...so...we need more people, I think, new ideas, new stuff. Much like the housing market/economny, we're stagnating.

Davesnave

lostinrates wrote: »

yeah, but even then we had more people. we've dwindled, and there is not much new blood, and gen probably gets bored of saying the same stuff over and over (I get embarrased to ask him to eplain something again)...so...we need more people, I think, new ideas, new stuff. Much like the housing market/economny, we're stagnating.

I believe that's what some people want. The 'invisible' board means we may soon disappear up our own fundamentals.

Also, I think Pennywise is correct in her analysis that fewer people seem willing to second guess what's coming next after the surprises of this year.
There's less passion & conviction around: only a few regulars who sound like a record....sorry CD,.....stuck in a groove.

But don't look at me; I'm to !!!!-out after another day working outside to think straight. I was never any kind of analyst even when just sitting on my bum waiting for the crash!:o

Generali

lostinrates wrote: »

yeah, but even then we had more people. we've dwindled, and there is not much new blood, and gen probably gets bored of saying the same stuff over and over (I get embarrased to ask him to eplain something again)...so...we need more people, I think, new ideas, new stuff. Much like the housing market/economny, we're stagnating.

The board is getting slowly strangled as new people can't do a bit of lurking before posting as they don't even see the board unless they sign up.

The policy of not allowing people to see the board unless they were logged in has clearly had the (presumably) desired effect.

IveSeenTheLight

phil_b wrote: »

'proper' btl'ers don't buy a house and bail when the market dips a bit, they buy for the long term, and to have an asset making them money in their old age. You don't buy houses and flog them like stocks and shares.

Any btl'er with at least a bit of intelligence won't bat an eyelid at the markets as they won't give a toss. They are still getting the same money each month and will worry about prices when they come to sell in another 30 years time.

There are of course those who were hoping to make a quick buck and bought at the peak but they are few and far between beleive it or not.

If you can get a property for a low'ish price, tart it up a bit and rent it out for the next 20 years it is still a great investment imo.

So good, it needed repeating

IveSeenTheLight

chucknorris wrote: »

i didn't take my money out and i am pleased i did not, as i would only have done so to buy back in at a later date. They haven't fallen enough imo to justify getting out (for those that would buy back in) when you consider:

Cgt now 18% (better than 40% with taper/indexation allowance)
estate agents fees
solicitors fees for both buying and selling
mortagage arrangement fees
higher mortgage costs when buying again (no lifetme trackers +0.5%)
stamp duty
very high current (temporary) abnormal profits due to low interest rates
valuation fees
lack of comparable returns to place the equity from sales
not to mention the time and effort in selling and re-buying

i wouldn't crticise those that sold and to be honest i would have sold myself if i was nearer to retirement but i have up to about 15 years before i retire. I do admit there were times when i was wondering how bad would it get, i suspected about 35% from peak but it wasn't that bad, although there were times when it looked that way. I do not believe there will be more substantial falls, although i do think we will see minor falls before the bottom next year. So i am happy i put my mouth where my money was and stayed put.

:t :t :t:t

julieq

That's a bit paranoid. I found (I think) this board after it had been closed down, and anyone who posts on MSE at all can see the board. At the time I found it I was mostly posting recipes on Old Style.

I think the fact is that at the time the board was hidden, the bears were in the ascendant and anyone posting a contrary view was vilified in the most unpleasant terms. I think my first recollection the bear side of this argument was a very pompous piece suggesting that now the board was being hidden the really big moneysavings available by not buying a house would be lost to everyone and the rest of MSE would just have to settle for saving a few pence on pizzas. In short, the contention was that other MSE users are short sighted idiots who scrimp pennies while the bears make all the money by shorting the property market, yet their voice is being stifled by those famous "vested interests" including Martin. Oh, and here's a graph with a bull trap on to prove the point.

Or that the "sheeple" stagger from day to day encumbered by debt and plasma TVs (incidentally has anyone ever pointed out to a bear that plasma TVs aren't actually very expensive?) while the bears sit counting their cash in their rented accomodation waiting for the guaranteed 70% falls in house prices whereupon their faith will be rewarded with a cheap house (while the economy crashes and burns behind them).

So I suspect the decision to hide the board was done out of respect to other people at MSE, not to stifle discussion. Actually anyone taking bear advice from that period may well have lost a lot of money rather than saved it, given the way things are now shaking out.

There can't be debate here because the bear position on housing prices is ossified and based on essentially religious faith. Any attempt to point this out and to work through arguments based on fact gets shouted down, and eventually you ask yourself why you would bother arguing with single issue nutters rather than spend the time talking to your friends and family.

Mewbie himself pointed out that he has fingers jammed up to the knuckles into his ears anyway. So what's the point? What would it really cost if this board wasn't here? Anyone who really wants to have their beliefs reinforced or engage in paranoid conspiracy theories has HPC available, where it would appear they would be protected from contrary opinions.

the_ash_and_the_oak

not really feeling the idea that if I think prices have further to fall that I would be better off engaging in conspiracy theories or being protected from opposite opinions to my own tbf

the_ash_and_the_oak

had a quick look back at a few of my posts - didn't really see any where I thought there would be 70% falls imo. think most of my posts have attempted to engage tbf - didn't really see any that were particularly ossified or based on faith rather than reason.

agree w your point about single issue nutters being prevalent on a single issue forums tho fwiw

julieq

I don't say everything gets shouted down by everyone with a bearish tendency, but any attempt to post a detailed argument usually gets drowned in pages of silly personal and ad hominem attacks, at which our cheeky chappy Mewbie is a past master. And after a certain point you do ask yourself why you bother.

That's what kills debate here, not the fact the board is hidden. People engaging in threads but without the least intention of discussing anything, just wanting to rubbish other posters. Precisely what Mewbie explained he does earlier in this thread.

the_ash_and_the_oak

you might have a point, pretty sure the attacks are both ways tho - but tbf usually skim past that kind of post

just not sure what the characterization of " bears sit counting their cash in their rented accomodation waiting for the guaranteed 70% falls in house prices whereupon their faith will be rewarded with a cheap house " is about really...kinda feeling there are bearish povs that aren't as you describe. perhaps debating that might be a better option

..think there's enough bearish posts to engage with if you want imo. there generally isn't any point in responding to posts by Hamish for example but there is with Chucky (largely I disagree with both but that is hardly the point)