To sell soon and then dripfeed back in?

Lokolo

malik999 wrote: »

I agree with Sabre. I can't understand the people above talking about selling up and moving into cash. The banking crisis has moved on, you're not goign to see March 09 again.

As I've said, I'm not going to move for cash for the rest of the life of the money, just for temp storage so if theres a bit dip again I don't lose 30% of my value.

malik999

Lokolo wrote: »

As I've said, I'm not going to move for cash for the rest of the life of the money, just for temp storage so if theres a bit dip again I don't lose 30% of my value.

But a 30% dip in what. What is your portfolio you are considering selling at this moment in time that you are expecting the dip on?.

cloud_dog

malik999 wrote: »

I agree with Sabre. I can't understand the people above talking about selling up and moving into cash.

Why not, isn't it prudent when your investments have doubled this calendar year, more than trippled since the low in October.

I've gone 50% cash because....

1) My investments have increased significantly
2) I don't beleive the overall market improvements are based on fundamentals. Whilst there have been improvements I don't think the increase in valuations stack up.
3) I'm heavilly resource / PM focussed in my investments. Which have primarilly benefitted from China's investments
4) Nothing goes up forever
5) Its about wealth preservation not making as much money as possible
6) Being in cash doesn't mean I wont get back in to the market

malik999 wrote: »

The banking crisis has moved on, you're not goign to see March 09 again.

We'll re-visit this post in a years time and see whats happened.

Whilst I do not expect a repeat of the meltdown I believe there are still significant events to play out, possibly Spain, China's continued investment programme, end of QE where's the stimulus.

Lokolo

malik999 wrote: »

But a 30% dip in what. What is your portfolio you are considering selling at this moment in time that you are expecting the dip on?.

My whole portfolio is global growth, so a lot of foreign equities.

I just believe this is not the end of the financial crisis and that there will be a dip end of Nov going on through to January.

Jonbvn

malik999 wrote: »

I agree with Sabre. I can't understand the people above talking about selling up and moving into cash. The banking crisis has moved on, you're not goign to see March 09 again.

Ehhh?

Nobody foresaw the failure of banks too big too fail.
Nobody foresaw rates at their lowest in almost half a millennium.

However, you appear to forget such catastrophic events in 6 months???:cool:

sabretoothtigger

5) Its about wealth preservation not making as much money as possible
6) Being in cash doesn't mean I wont get back in to the market

I could agree more if it werent just british cash. Theres probably a money market fund that uses 5 or more different currencies to try be out of the market.

Moving from shares, some of which will have assets all over the world into just uk currency could be increasing risk not reducing it.
I dont disagree with rebalancing funds just so long as its not to 100% cash.
Same argument applies to people who think housing can only fall from here, seems more risky to me unless you really love brown and mervyn that much

cloud_dog

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

I could agree more if it werent just british cash. Theres probably a money market fund that uses 5 or more different currencies to try be out of the market.

Moving from shares, some of which will have assets all over the world into just uk currency could be increasing risk not reducing it.

I would agree with your sentiment if you are talking longer term however.......... I am an investor so, even now I am looking at where the markets may go, looking for signs that I was wrong and that things will continue to rise (substantially).

I just think it is wise to make decisions earlier rather than later, the reason for this....... psychology. It gets really difficult to accept a big 'paper' loss / reduction (been there, done that)

You also may remember that I am a bit of a gold bug, so I have my Oz to act as a bit of a safeguard to currency issues.

cloud_dog

Just to add, I think assets and asset backed investments will do really well going forward but thats not to say that general market sentiment (herd mentality) wont take asset backed stocks down with the rest of it (when (((if))) it happens)

bendix

Jonbvn wrote: »

Ehhh?

Nobody foresaw the failure of banks too big too fail.
Nobody foresaw rates at their lowest in almost half a millennium.

However, you appear to forget such catastrophic events in 6 months???:cool:

On the contrary, many people saw both things. But when they mentioned it, noone took any notice because they didnt want to accept the inevitable.

bendix

To answer Lokolo with my own thoughts . . I'm certainly not moving out to cash. I have a 4-5 year horizon and I'm dripfeeding £6-£7k in every month. I'm looking at asset allocation, sure, but if you look beyond the growth of the last six months and look at the bigger picture you will see that FTSE - to just refer to the UK market - is still lower today that it was even 10 years ago, and significantly lower than 2 years ago.

If you are taking a long-term perspective, even your feared 30% dip is hardly a problem if you don't need the money now.