Why house prices are certain to fall

geoffky

new_home_owner wrote: »

To many posts on this matter, i can only see house prices stabalising and then starting to go back up when things start to pick up.

It makes me laugh manafacturing decimated, i work for a large car maker and due to the shortage of cars all the models we build bar one, have had to go on shifts and are on compuslory overtime, and this is due to sales.

Interest rates will stay low for a few years, so there wont be many forced sales, im not saying you wont pick up the odd bargain, plus banks are not forcing reposessions through, as they know selling a houses in negative equity will not get their money back.

Ive got a mate he has declared himself bankrupt, and northern rock have let hime keep the house as long as he makes certain payments a month, he owed them 120,000 after he had remortgaged a few years back, to have work done, and the house was only valued at 90,000 pound.

No one wants to see families thrown out of their houses and i dont think it will happen.

Only time will tell, but usually forced sales push prices down the less of them the less house price falls, and the only way there will be forced sales is if the interest rates shoot up very soon, which i just dont think will happen,

good luck to you all, i just hope you potential buyers who have been hanging on havent missed the boat.

You sir are in for one of a big shock...and if you can not see it coming how are you going to protect yourself.?.. i don't mind a bit of optimism but you do not see whats in front of you and to me that is very dangerous..

geoffky

new_home_owner wrote: »

I have to agree with the last bit

Have you just bought.... then.i also agree..:rotfl:

The_White_Horse

some people need to buy now, before they lose their equity and have no deposit. this is what worries me. if i have say, 100k equity but then my house loses 100k - although the house i intend to buy may also have dropped 100k or even 150k, i will have no deposit to put down - or at best only say, 10%, which now may be 20% or even the magic 25%.

that is the problem for some.

System

geoffky wrote: »

JOE the king of the one liner.....again.. and four fools

Are you suggesting you agree with the "formula" in the OP then geoff?

macaque_2

The_White_Horse wrote: »

some people need to buy now, before they lose their equity and have no deposit. this is what worries me. if i have say, 100k equity but then my house loses 100k - although the house i intend to buy may also have dropped 100k or even 150k, i will have no deposit to put down - or at best only say, 10%, which now may be 20% or even the magic 25%.

that is the problem for some.

White Horse

As club president I am pleased tell you that your post wins this month's Rubber Cow Pat Award for the most peverse rationale for buying a house. If you can also furnish with a breakdown of how your theory works you could be a contender for the annual golden bolox prize

The Right Honourable Simian Macaque ADHD
President of the 70% club

IveSeenTheLight

macaque wrote: »

White Horse

As club president I am pleased tell you that your post wins this month's Rubber Cow Pat Award for the most peverse rationale for buying a house. If you can also furnish with a breakdown of how your theory works you could be a contender for the annual golden bolox prize

The Right Honourable Simian Macaque ADHD
President of the 70% club

Don't try to hand off your awards macaque

zappahey

The_White_Horse wrote: »

some people need to buy now, before they lose their equity and have no deposit. this is what worries me. if i have say, 100k equity but then my house loses 100k - although the house i intend to buy may also have dropped 100k or even 150k, i will have no deposit to put down - or at best only say, 10%, which now may be 20% or even the magic 25%.

that is the problem for some.

Should have STR

Cleaver

julieq wrote: »

It's demagoguery, as usual from the bears

Funny you should say that as I was telling Mewbs the other day that he was being far too demagogueraous. He countered by saying that he'd always been on the demagoguer side of things and didn't see it changing any time soon.

We both agreed that we had no idea what the word meant anyway and decided to return to smutty jokes instead.

Cleaver

macaque wrote: »

Here is my formula for determining house price inflation:

HPI = IG X PG X S

Where:
IG = disposable income trend
PG = population trend
S = sentiment

S is the product of historical HPI. The longer that HPI is positive, the more certain it is that S will also be positive. House prices have had such a good run for last 50 years that S will be slow to reverse (but it will happen).

Can I just point out how sweet I think it is that you've come up with a nice, simple formula to try and quanitfy such a hugley complex and variable market that can be influenced by hundreds of factors.

Can I have a go?

HPI = BD / LTV * NHP + WEATK

Where:
BD = buyer's deposit
LTV = loan to value
NHP = national house price
WEAT = width of estate agent's tie knot

Yakubu22

How about a more simplistic formula;

HPI = EABS - BD

Where:
EABS = volume of Estate Agent Bull !!!!!!
BS= Buyer's deposit