Why house prices are certain to fall

IveSeenTheLight

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

agreed. I think the first scenario describes the pre-war situation, and the 2nd - gradually - the post-war scenario

Accepted, hence why I said it was easier now than previously to be an owner of property.

Really, after all the discussion of easy credit in the past couple of decades, would owner occupancy be so high without the ease of loending we have seen.

It's possible we are seeing a reduction in those being able to buy, because of the reduction of avilable credit

nearlynew

nearlynew wrote: »

I wonder how many of that 70% could afford to buy their own house today?

sorry about quoting my own post, but.......


It's interesting to note that none of the HPI cheerleaders have answered this.

chucky

nearlynew wrote: »

sorry about quoting my own post, but.......


It's interesting to note that none of the HPI cheerleaders have answered this.

he's probably a realist not a HPI cheerleader

wageslave

The real question is, how many of that 70% could afford to buy their house in the first place?

the_ash_and_the_oak

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Accepted, hence why I said it was easier now than previously to be an owner of property.

Really, after all the discussion of easy credit in the past couple of decades, would owner occupancy be so high without the ease of loending we have seen.

It's possible we are seeing a reduction in those being able to buy, because of the reduction of avilable credit

But ftbs right now are in situation of person 8, not people 2-7 imo

agree that owner occupancy would be lower without expansion of lending

also thinking the same as you that lending may have been extended to as large a percentage of population as is feasible, and in the future may well reduce

new_home_owner_3

I was talking to my dad earlier and i asked hime when he bought his house, he paid £35000 in 1969 and he told me he was on about £1.50 a week, he also told me about his mate who bought a house in the same road the year i was born 1972 and he paid £8000 pound, so houses have always gone up even though they was cheaper.

I don think there are any graphs about but heres a link to a graph i found quite good.

http://labs.timesonline.co.uk/blog/2009/01/27/what-property-price-bubble/

mewbie_2

new_home_owner wrote: »

always gone up

Didn't go up last year I think.

new_home_owner_3

mewbie wrote: »

Didn't go up last year I think.

you carry on thinking;)

IveSeenTheLight

the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »

But ftbs right now are in situation of person 8, not people 2-7 imo

agree that owner occupancy would be lower without expansion of lending

also thinking the same as you that lending may have been extended to as large a percentage of population as is feasible, and in the future may well reduce

Right now FTBers are 36% of the market
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/2397

It was a similar level in 06 and 05
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/884

As a percentage, first-time buyers accounted for 36% of all new loans - unchanged since April, but down by 2% on June 2005.

This document released in 2005 titles "Understanding FTBers" refers to the FTBer attributing to a third of the market, again similar to the recent transactions.
http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/filegrab/pdf_pub_resreps_56.pdf.pdf?ref=3875

Accounting for around a third of UK mortgage transactions in 2005 Q1, first-time buyers are crucial to the healthy operation of the housing market.

First-time buyer transactions have declined from their peak of around 50% of the market in the late 1980s to stand at 29% in 2004. (So recent percentages are higher than 2004) Numbers of first-time buyers have also been falling steadily since 1999.

First-time buyers are not expected to return to their long-term trend average of around 40%-45% of house purchase mortgages within the next four to five years

The predicted continuing delay by young people to enter the market could have implications for longer-term trends in home-ownership levels

Trying to find info going back further, I did find this interesting graph showing FTBers have been below 40% since 2002 although were a higher percentage before that.

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/filegrab/pdf_pub_resreps_56.pdf.pdf?ref=3875

IveSeenTheLight

new_home_owner wrote: »

I was talking to my dad earlier and i asked hime when he bought his house, he paid £35000 in 1969 and he told me he was on about £1.50 a week, he also told me about his mate who bought a house in the same road the year i was born 1972 and he paid £8000 pound, so houses have always gone up even though they was cheaper.

I don think there are any graphs about but heres a link to a graph i found quite good.

http://labs.timesonline.co.uk/blog/2009/01/27/what-property-price-bubble/

It's a decent graph.
Just taking the prices in 10 year stages

1973 Q4 = £9,767
1983 Q4 = £28,623 (a 2.9 multiplier than 10 years previously)
1993 Q4 = £51,050 (a 1.8 multiplier than 10 years previously)
2003 Q4 = £133,027 (a 2.6 multiplier than 10 years previously)

It would appear the bigger bubble was in the 70's early 80's despite what the scal of the graph protrudes