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Debate House Prices
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Why house prices are certain to fall
Comments
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no because - if you buy in 2003 the property it is bought at 2003 prices.
you will be or should be paying your mortgage at 2003 house prices.
your salary will be a 2009 salary which should be higher than it was in 2003 so all in all it should be much more affordable than it was then.
over-payments (if possible) would make your mortgage cheaper too.
your selling-to-each other is the key here - hence the concept of getting on the property ladder.
I don't think I understand what you're saying. Are you really saying that it's OK for HP to go up, because salaries do too? Surely you must know that HP have gone up much much more than salaries have, so that argument doesn't hold.
If selling-to-each-other is the only kind of selling going on, the entire market isn't sustainable. You need people at all stages of Hamish's ferris wheel analogy, or it won't go round.Do you know anyone who's bereaved? Point them to https://www.AtaLoss.org which does for bereavement support what MSE does for financial services, providing links to support organisations relevant to the circumstances of the loss & the local area. (Link permitted by forum team)
Tyre performance in the wet deteriorates rapidly below about 3mm tread - change yours when they get dangerous, not just when they are nearly illegal (1.6mm).
Oh, and wear your seatbelt. My kids are only alive because they were wearing theirs when somebody else was driving in wet weather with worn tyres.
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If selling-to-each-other is the only kind of selling going on, the entire market isn't sustainable. You need people at all stages of Hamish's ferris wheel analogy, or it won't go round.
True.
But if the people that die leave their money to the FTB's, the circle continues. People get on, people get off. The money recirculates.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »True.
But if the people that die leave their money to the FTB's, the circle continues. People get on, people get off. The money recirculates.
Interesting point here - especially in regard to long term residential care for the elderly (and why transfer of property to children or grandchildren now has to take place a significant amount of time before such an event, if it isn't to be sold off to pay for that care)Prefer girls to money0 -
the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »poorly worded, sorry about that. means to say 7 out of 10 people have a pound (which they then spend on a trinket)
Still poor anology as it would infer that no-one could afford when the trinket price rose. We know there are still sales.
Also doesn't cater for people earning more into their pockets.
Facts are that over 70% of the properties are owner occupied, the highest in recorded history.
Not everyone can afford, even less did so the further back in history you go. Simply put, property ownership has never been easier in the UK:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »Still poor anology as it would infer that no-one could afford when the trinket price rose. We know there are still sales.
Also doesn't cater for people earning more into their pockets.
Facts are that over 70% of the properties are owner occupied, the highest in recorded history.
Not everyone can afford, even less did so the further back in history you go. Simply put, property ownership has never been easier in the UK
there are defintely still sales (tho rather less than in the recent past imo)
I don't think it follows that because everyone owns something that makes it the easiest its ever been. in fact this isn't a logical consequence at all.
ie to go back to the trinkets. of the 10 people: if one person owned all ten trinkets then only 10% of the population owned trinkets. prices go up over time and so does trinket-ownership - until eventually trinket ownership reaches 70%. going back to the original analogy - now from this point on whatever price they rise by (lets say 600% overnight) - 70% of the popn still own their trinkets. more people than ever before have owned trinkets (despite the fact they went up 600% overnight)
how easy is it for the 8th person to buy one?Prefer girls to money0 -
Lower sales is really irrelevant in regards to house prices as demand is also down.the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »there are defintely still sales (tho rather less than in the recent past imo)the_ash_and_the_oak wrote: »I don't think it follows that because everyone owns something that makes it the easiest its ever been. in fact this isn't a logical consequence at all.
ie to go back to the trinkets. of the 10 people: if one person owned all ten trinkets then only 10% of the population owned trinkets. prices go up over time and so does trinket-ownership - until eventually trinket ownership reaches 70%. going back to the original analogy - now from this point on whatever price they rise by (lets say 600% overnight) - 70% of the popn still own their trinkets. more people than ever before have owned trinkets (despite the fact they went up 600% overnight)
how easy is it for the 8th person to buy one?
It depends on how you are looking at the "easiest" perspective.
Ok, its not easy for the 8th, 9th or 10th people in your anology, but it certainly became possible for the first 7 whereas previously it was not possible.:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »
It depends on how you are looking at the "easiest" perspective.
Ok, its not easy for the 8th, 9th or 10th people in your anology, but it certainly became possible for the first 7 whereas previously it was not possible.
agreed. I think the first scenario describes the pre-war situation, and the 2nd - gradually - the post-war scenarioPrefer girls to money0 -
I don't think I understand what you're saying. Are you really saying that it's OK for HP to go up, because salaries do too? Surely you must know that HP have gone up much much more than salaries have, so that argument doesn't hold.
If selling-to-each-other is the only kind of selling going on, the entire market isn't sustainable. You need people at all stages of Hamish's ferris wheel analogy, or it won't go round.
no, what i am saying is that the price of a property bought in 2003 is affordable compared to now. just like buying a property now is affordable; but the same property won't be as affordable to people buying the same property in 2015.
so what happens if an extra rung is added to get people on that ferris wheel, the modern day Right to Buy - ie shared ownership. to me that's what it is.0
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