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"Double dip Recession" looms

2

Comments

  • tomterm8
    tomterm8 Posts: 5,892 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    edited 15 September 2009 at 7:18PM
    kabayiri wrote: »
    It's not changed our debt habits either.

    I guess we'll agree to disagree on that one, if you look at the latest lending table from the BoE, you see that every month since 2007 the rate of growth of lending has slowed. In july 2007 it was around 10.2%, by july it had fallen to 0.9%, and July was the first month consumer credit (as supposed to lending in total) actually fell since the 90's recession.

    Thats a massive change, and my own view is things are that soon lending could very easily go the way it has in the US... that is, in the US consumer credit has been contracting faster than at any point since the 1930's for the last 6 months, and the speed of contraction is actually increasing.

    I don't think that is a healthy development.

    Now, I accept that the measures were taken to slow the decline in lending. That was the point of QE. But personally I think a secular change in lending habits is taking place, and I am very worried about it.
    “The ideas of debtor and creditor as to what constitutes a good time never coincide.”
    ― P.G. Wodehouse, Love Among the Chickens
  • b0rker
    b0rker Posts: 479 Forumite
    brit1234 wrote: »
    Time we face the reality and accept what is comming rather than delaying it. That way we can rebuild our economy stronger and more importantly sustainably.

    You know. If I thought for one second that you actually cared about any of the above and not just that fact that you want a low priced house for yourself then I wouldn't find 99% of your posts disingenuous, verging on sad.
  • mewbie_2
    mewbie_2 Posts: 6,058 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    b0rker wrote: »
    You know. If I thought for one second that you actually cared about any of the above and not just that fact that you want a low priced house for yourself then I wouldn't find 99% of your posts disingenuous, verging on sad.
    Are you of the double dip persuasion b0rker?
  • b0rker
    b0rker Posts: 479 Forumite
    mewbie wrote: »
    Are you of the double dip persuasion b0rker?

    I am more of an economic stagnation man myself.
  • mewbie_2
    mewbie_2 Posts: 6,058 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    b0rker wrote: »
    I am more of an economic stagnation man myself.
    Well played.
  • tomterm8
    tomterm8 Posts: 5,892 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    So what are you these days, Mewbie?

    A year go, I was sort of middle-of-the-road, but I think I've been getting more bearish over the last three months. Which is ironic, because just as everyone seems to think its getting better, I kind of see a tidal wave approaching.
    “The ideas of debtor and creditor as to what constitutes a good time never coincide.”
    ― P.G. Wodehouse, Love Among the Chickens
  • mewbie_2
    mewbie_2 Posts: 6,058 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    tomterm8 wrote: »
    So what are you these days, Mewbie?

    A year go, I was sort of middle-of-the-road, but I think I've been getting more bearish over the last three months. Which is ironic, because just as everyone seems to think its getting better, I kind of see a tidal wave approaching.
    Blimey, a serious question. And nothing to do with tea bags.

    Economy could double dip, or stagnate. I don't see a meaningful recovery happening for a few years. I hope I can keep working.

    House prices. I believe they have a long way to go beneath that trend line.

    So I am a bear, without the possibility of spending six months in a cave sleeping and farting.
  • tomterm8
    tomterm8 Posts: 5,892 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture Combo Breaker
    mewbie wrote: »
    So I am a bear, without the possibility of spending six months in a cave sleeping and farting.

    Oh, I think its a comparative thing, I think whats happened over the last year or so has been a disaster, but I don't think many people in the UK are starving, or living in caves. Even if what I think happens, most people will still have jobs, and even those without will be able to eat, and will probably find jobs within a year or two even if they are worse paid.
    “The ideas of debtor and creditor as to what constitutes a good time never coincide.”
    ― P.G. Wodehouse, Love Among the Chickens
  • b0rker
    b0rker Posts: 479 Forumite
    mewbie wrote: »
    So I am a bear, without the possibility of spending six months in a cave sleeping and farting.

    I have always been lead to believe that bears are most often found to be rather fond of bowel evacuation, more often that not in a somewhat forested area.

    But if farting in a cave is more your thing...

    Well it is the year 2009 so who am I to judge?
  • mewbie_2
    mewbie_2 Posts: 6,058 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    b0rker wrote: »
    I have always been lead to believe that bears are most often found to be rather fond of bowel evacuation, more often that not in a somewhat forested area.

    But if farting in a cave is more your thing...

    Well it is the year 2009 so who am I to judge?
    Obviously we spend six months in the woods, but as we are approaching winter, and possibly a winter of discontent and misfortune, I thought hibernating would be a good way to get through it. If it's a Spring Bounce when I re emerge then I'm going back in the cave again.
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