'Is the economy in an L, a W or a V?' poll results/discussion

Former_MSE_Lawrence

Poll between 14-21 September 2009:

Is the economy in an L, a W or a V?

Some say we’ve just seen the summer of love, with economic indicators showing the recession is slowing. Yet is this the beginning of the end, or just a temporary pause before another big economic dip?

Which of these is CLOSEST to your view of the shape of the economic growth?

L. A flat(ish) period will follow the sharp drop we’ve just had. - 47% (3631 votes)
V. We’ll now have a sharp rise following the sharp drop. - 8% (659 votes)
W. We’ve had a sharp drop but it's going to drop again. - 35% (2724 votes)
?. I haven’t a clue. - 10% (774 votes)
Total Votes: 7788

This vote has now ended, but you can still click 'post reply' to discuss below. Thanks

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Saucepot

No one has a crystal ball, or at least one that works. The future is unwritten.

MrsB2100

Absolutely, no one has a crystal ball. However, in my view the rise we're seeing at present is probably down to mass redundancies and outsourcing so Companies look 'healthier'. But, when there's so many unemployed who's going to be buying the goods out there? Companies are holding onto their budgets so no new products are going to sell ... it's hard to get a job right now, so no-one's going to buy ... I'm opting for a W I'm afraid, but I sure hope I'm wrong!

MothballsWallet

The only thing that can be described as having a shape at the moment is the population growth curve...

Masomnia

I put W, for what it's worth.

My feeling is that we'll see positive growth in the third quarter, as the exhuberance in the stock market and housing market causes an upsurge in business.

However I do think we'll have at least another negative quarter, as people continue to pay down debt and lagging indicators like unemployment take time to work their way through the economy.

zygurat789

Que serah serah.
Like everyone else I don't know and I don't care we''kl just have to deal with whatever comes. The only certainty is change.

zygurat789

Can we have a J for the overoptimists?

Saucepot

I'm thinking "loop the loop" shape, because there is no guarentee time is linear. It's only an assumption of the OP.

ThinkingOfLinking

Somewhere between L and W. I guess things wll pick up a bit around Xmas, with the shops and their offers to entice people to spend on pressies but January will be like tumbleweed so it'll drop again....I don't see any sharp drops as such but Jan will be quiet compared with December so it'll appear more of a drop than it really is.

meher

Saucepot wrote: »

I'm thinking "loop the loop" shape, because there is no guarentee time is linear.

that sounds clever

aurorahelios

I voted L but, I'm between L and W. My main reasoning is the mess government finances are in - public spending is going to have to come down and taxes are going to have to up, putting downward spending pressure on households and business for quite a while.