Homeowners are in for a drop in prices in next year’s first half

Heyman_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Chucky dear boy, let's not go down the route of changing things.

You asked what their definition was. I said I don't really care what their definition is.

I'm simply not that anal. They have their reasons for saying it, and thats enough for me as I believe it anyway.

But isn't the definition pretty much the entire basis for determining how much of an issue it is or isn't?

I've got £500 in my wallet at the moment, I reckon that makes me pretty cash rich.

Yakubu22

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

But they are selling, just in lower numbers than in previous years.
No point in building more until current stock is lowered.

If you ran a sweet shop, you wouldn't keep buying stock if sales were lower would you? You'd cut back on the order intake

I heard a story (so no link sorry) that a house builder who had laid off contractors and some staff knew that when things turn around they will not have enough staff and there will be a scramble to get empoyees in to build the houses.

Business do not have loyalty to employees anymore. When things are down they cut overheads and recruit again when things pick up.

I understand businesses have no loyalty. You seem to have confused my point. My question was why (if as a lot of posters say) there is a great demand for housing is the construction industry on its knees.

chucky

Yakubu22 wrote: »

I understand businesses have no loyalty. You seem to have confused my point. My question was why (if as a lot of posters say) there is a great demand for housing is the construction industry on its knees.

because there isn't enough demand for new houses to be built but there is enough demand to support 2009 house prices.

Harry_Powell

Yakubu22 wrote: »

So while not eveyone is being screwed it seems (ast least to me) things in the Construction industry are bad. Which is why I wondered, if demand was so high. How the Constrcution Industry was in such a poor state.

The construction industry rely a lot on credit to fund their builds. Even if you think of something small time like an adding an extension to an existing building. The builder will buy the materials (concrete, bricks, plasterboard, etc) and pay the labour (his employees or sub contractors) out of his own pocket. Unless he has very deep pockets he'll fund this via credit, which he'll repay it once the job is done and he gets paid (sometimes they'll ask for payment in stages to rein in the costs and spread the risk). Extrapolate that to the building of a housing estate, school or whatever and you can imagine how many millions of pounds they'd need in credit. With a credit crunch, they cant get the funding and so cant build.

Cleaver

Lotus-eater wrote: »

It does make it look like a small blip doesn't it.
Does this mean we haven't had the crash then As you were one of the ones saying we will definitely have a crash at some point?

Well, that's just the average house price.

I guess if you bought a particularly poor £270k new build flat somewhere in 2007 with a 95% mortgage, you will never see it worth anything like that in the future. You may also be sitting a property that has lost 50%+ in value, and that's if anyone would even buy it. To that person, there definately was a crash and it would have hit them big time. They will be in negative equity, may not be able to move for years and may have serious problems remortgaging. It's hard to think of a worse situation housing-wise.

If you were a FTBer who bought a nice 2 or 3-bed terrace, or something similar, in 2007 that's been standing there since the 1890s with a pretty decent 15% or 20% deposit, you'll probably be looking at your situation in a different light. Enjoy the house for a few years, pay down some of the outstanding mortgage and then sell it for a similar price to that which you bought it in 2015 or something. People always want to live in a nice terraced, semi-detached and detached housing, it's a safe bet.

For people further up the ladder, house price booms and busts come and go, the general trend is upwards and probably will be this time. You just look on, shrug and get on with life don't you?

Now, if I was a BTLer who bought a portfolio in 2007, well, I guess I'd be clutching to my long term plan and hoping for the best. Probably still be alright in the long run though, as long as that portfolio isn't made up of a block of new build urban utility lifestyle pads. Maybe.

Cleaver

Just to back up my post. An apartment block in central Manchester:

01/12/2008 £80,500 Apartment 2, Junction Works, 40, Ducie Street, Manchester, Greater Manchester, M1 2DF
12/03/2003 £156,000 Apartment 2, Junction Works, 40, Ducie Street, Manchester, Greater Manchester, M1 2DF

Sold for £156k in 2003 then for around 50% less in 2008. Ouch.

But if you pick just an average, normal, good, solid street in Manchester:

30/06/2008 £125,000 12, Light Oaks Road, Salford, Greater Manchester, M6 8NQ
16/08/2004 £118,500 12, Light Oaks Road, Salford, Greater Manchester, M6 8NQ

15/06/2009 £275,000 130, Light Oaks Road, Salford, Greater Manchester, M6 8WL
14/02/2005 £174,000 130, Light Oaks Road, Salford, Greater Manchester, M6 8WL

Property selling at more than it was three or four years ago. I guess because there is a demand for that type of property. That was the first street I picked at random, but I'm sure most are the same.

Strange game really isn't it? And shows that us lot, sitting here bickering over averages and this, that and the other is a bit of a waste of time. But then I guess we all know that deep down. Passes the time though, hey?

Lotus-eater

Cleaver wrote: »

Well, that's just the average house price.
<snippty snip>

Agreed ........................

StevieJ

Heyman wrote: »

Yeah, it won't stop the hysteria when we eventually see the first MoM fall though will it :rolleyes:

The bears have given us some good training in the past few months, the market doesn't move in a straight line Bear Trap :rolleyes:

StevieJ

Cleaver wrote: »

Just to back up my post. An apartment block in central Manchester:

01/12/2008 £80,500 Apartment 2, Junction Works, 40, Ducie Street, Manchester, Greater Manchester, M1 2DF
12/03/2003 £156,000 Apartment 2, Junction Works, 40, Ducie Street, Manchester, Greater Manchester, M1 2DF
?

I think we all agreed, even before 2007 that those city centre flats were well over priced (well all except those that bought them, some unseen:eek: )

savemoney

Have to agree with 1st post

Last recession it took years for my last house to even recover 1989 value let alone increase in value I think it was mid 90s that my last house actuall increased and not by much