Homeowners are in for a drop in prices in next year’s first half

System

chucky wrote: »

what's their definition of cash rich?

Oi, there's a juicy CML article released today that I'm waiting for either you or Hamish to post, chop chop

IveSeenTheLight

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Oi, there's a juicy CML article released today that I'm waiting for either you or Hamish to post, chop chop

Dan's already linked it in a thread somewhere

[Edit]
It's post 24
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=25085303&postcount=24
[/edit]

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Dunno. Don't care tbh.

What i can guarentee is you will say their definition is wrong

have i got this right... you say

Graham_Devon wrote: »

If a small number of cash rich buyers have supported prices, and we are going into second falls...

What is going to support prices in the next leg down and stop them falling?

and then you say that you don't care - are you unable to back up your point of view?

IveSeenTheLight

chucky wrote: »

have i got this right... you say


and then you say that you don't care - are you unable to back up your point of view?

Possibly just stirring the pot

Yakubu22

Really2 wrote: »

TBH, All the builder near us have been building since march onwards. They are building on order basis but I have seen a fair few houses go up this year (over 20) Their was nothing from August to march last year though)

They blew apart thier balance sheet by down valuing land to sell cheaper.

But it would be suicied now to build up stockpiles of houses as it would much for the reason you stated above. Over supply decreases demand.

Yeh i see one site near me which is nearing completion but another next door which has been abandoned.

Speaking from experience my brother who works for a global Concrete/Cement/Building Supplier company and was made redundant last month.
He survived two previous culls but unfortunately got the bullet in the end. He told me how disheartening it was to see long standing UK customers and suppliers going bankrupt. He said it had been going this way for 12-18 months and that things are not much better now.

Another close friend who works for a Recruitment Company specialising in the construction industry reports similar findings. He stated that the new BBC complex in Salford is the only truly major building work in the North West. He also said 60% of his companies' vacanies are for employment in Dubai, Qatar, and that region in general.

So while not eveyone is being screwed it seems (ast least to me) things in the Construction industry are bad. Which is why I wondered, if demand was so high. How the Constrcution Industry was in such a poor state.

Graham_Devon

chucky wrote: »

have i got this right... you say


and then you say that you don't care - are you unable to back up your point of view?

Chucky dear boy, let's not go down the route of changing things.

You asked what their definition was. I said I don't really care what their definition is.

I'm simply not that anal. They have their reasons for saying it, and thats enough for me as I believe it anyway.

They are saying the market is being held up by cash rich. It's not me that wants to dispute that. It's you.

chucky

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Possibly just stirring the pot

yes, or just another case of not actually understanding what is happening, then realising and deflecting everything on everyone else :rolleyes:

Really2

Yakubu22 wrote: »

So while not eveyone is being screwed it seems (ast least to me) things in the Construction industry are bad. Which is why I wondered, if demand was so high. How the Constrcution Industry was in such a poor state.

It will remain poor for a long time they have massive debts and can not afford the massive expansion like before (EG build an estate no matter how many are selling)

I think this is why a lot of the bulls are saying the crash is in fact a double kick in the balls for new buyers as now demand for housing will be outstripping how fast they are built.

It could take 5 years or so for builder to build like they did in pre 2007.

To add a mate runs the sight near me I think now they are building to order they are using 1/4 of the staff they did during the boom.
It is going to be hard for the building sector that is for sure.

Yakubu22

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

No, most say the supply and demand set the market rate.

Well it's generally the uber bulls on this site which say it most

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

The thing about building companies is also that they temper the supply to try and maximise profits. No point in flooding the market with supply as that would just cause the price to drop. Not good for the businesses

Neither is not selling any houses and staying afloat. At what point does limiting supply to increase demand give way to needing to sell to keep people in jobs (and make profits)? Less houses sold = less profits, surely?

IveSeenTheLight

Yakubu22 wrote: »

Neither is not selling any houses and staying afloat. At what point does limiting supply to increase demand give way to needing to sell to keep people in jobs (and make profits)? Less houses sold = less profits, surely?

But they are selling, just in lower numbers than in previous years.
No point in building more until current stock is lowered.

If you ran a sweet shop, you wouldn't keep buying stock if sales were lower would you? You'd cut back on the order intake

I heard a story (so no link sorry) that a house builder who had laid off contractors and some staff knew that when things turn around they will not have enough staff and there will be a scramble to get empoyees in to build the houses.

Business do not have loyalty to employees anymore. When things are down they cut overheads and recruit again when things pick up.