Homeowners are in for a drop in prices in next year’s first half

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I would suggest that people receiving an inheritance are more likely to be home owners already. Rather than FTB's, as they are unlikely to be "young". So the money would be used to trade up or BTL rather than be used for first time purchase.

Gotta disagree there. While I'm not saying that this is the sole reason for high deposit FTBers.
When my grandfather died, although my grandmother was still living, his will was such that I received some inheritance.

I know that I have structured my will to cater for all of our (wife and I) families and as we grow older, we'll amend and adapt to cater for grand children / great grand children etc

We've learned that it is better to have these things laid out crystal clear.

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

There were only 509,090 recorded deaths in total in England and Wales in 2008 !

So I think that you've exaggerated your point slightly.

I'm interested to know where you got your figures.
Reason being is they seem pretty specific and possibly better than the ones I found.

The link I found seems to be rounded and shows there were 570,000 deaths 07-08, pretty similar to the previous years of 571,000 & 575,000

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=950

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I'm interested to know where you got your figures.
Reason being is they seem pretty specific and possibly better than the ones I found.

The link I found seems to be rounded and shows there were 570,000 deaths 07-08, pretty similar to the previous years of 571,000 & 575,000

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=950

This is the report I found.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/bdths0509.pdf

Since 1998, these rates have decreased by 25 per cent for males and 19 per cent for females to (provisional) rates in 2008 of 6,860 and 4,910 deaths per million population for males and females respectively.

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

This was the logic of a couple of friends of mine a while back.

I wonder when people do this if they consider that they are not increasing their capital in line with inflation, thus each year their capital is effectively worth less.

Still would be nice to have £340k to consider investments with though

IveSeenTheLight

Really2 wrote: »

OK have the stats for 2004
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/STATBASE/ssdataset.asp?vlnk=8986

If you use 15-54YO 38,782 died

Even if you use 25-54 YO 35,588 Died

Using the lower figure (35,588) over 25 years that tells you up to 889,700 children under the age of 25 most probably lost a parent.

So it is certain of the current batch off 0-25 year old's more than 100,000 of them would have lost at least 1 parent unfortunatley. It is likely to be nearer to 500,000 not 100,000.

I see a bit of a flaw in your maths.
We don't know how many had children or how many were left without a parent.

Also, We have provisions for our son (only 6 months old) that he is covered for during his life. Who pays for him while he is growing up, going to school, buying clothes, going to university etc

There will be unfortunate children left without parents that the inheritance money is set away for their upbringing thus maybe not so much left when they get into adulthood.

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

On current prices thats a £60k average deposit plus all the costs of purchasing etc.

That would be a £40k deposit
http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/
£155,885 * 25% = £38,971

Or Nationwides figures
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/aug_2009.pdf
£160,224 * 25% = £40.056

P.S. although the figures are showing 35% of the sales, there is a strong chance that they bought lower than average properties thus the deposit would have been even less

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I wonder when people do this if they consider that they are not increasing their capital in line with inflation, thus each year their capital is effectively worth less.

Still would be nice to have £340k to consider investments with though

They ultimately have lost a high percentage of their capital gain . :rolleyes:


Other friends did manage to sell up. And had their own house built on the Isle of Harris in Scotland to escape the rat race.

Never be afraid to pocket a profit thats my motto. A good portfolio is a diversified one.

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

That would be a £40k deposit
http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/
£155,885 * 25% = £38,971

Or Nationwides figures
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/aug_2009.pdf
£160,224 * 25% = £40.056

P.S. although the figures are showing 35% of the sales, there is a strong chance that they bought lower than average properties thus the deposit would have been even less

60k is on a 40% deposit.

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

60k is on a 40% deposit.

You were talking about 25% average deposits in line with the FTB average mortgages taken out

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Have suddenly FTB's suddenly managed to raise 25% average deposits.

On current prices thats a £60k average deposit plus all the costs of purchasing etc.

Thrugelmir

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

You were talking about 25% average deposits in line with the FTB average mortgages taken out

The conversation seems to have become muddled..........

90% mortgages have always been available. Whats changed is the disappearance of sub prime lenders.

During an economic downturn its rather surprising for a high number of FTB's to have large deposits. When this hasn't been the case in the past 25 years ever.

The point regarding inheritances is interesting. But why hasn't this impacted during previous boom times?