A serious question for the Bears....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

lostinrates wrote: »

We would have prceeded with buying something, unsuitable but livable, ''a rung on the ladder'' had we not become convinced a drop was more than likely. I'd really like to unpack...soon.

That the timing came now has been interesting personally. Its let us challenge our own politcal/ethical beliefs ..and despite the constant refrain that nobody here listens to other arguments I find I have changed opinions on somethings (in either direction) that I wouldn't have without input from people here.

So putting aside your own march deadline, if you saw prices fall by 20%, and then rise so the fall was only 13% (as has happened so far), and they kept rising, at what point would you feel the risk of them rising further and you losing all the potential gains from the crash would be too great? 10%? 5%? Or would you let them get back to peak?

lostinrates

chucky wrote: »

that implies that housing is affordable

We have an above average income and deposit. Housing of some sort would be personally ''affordable'',even if not ''good'' housing and scary debt. If we start the business our debt will be scarier though.

geoffky

with these times for it taking to sell a house in my area..i dont think i have much to worry about..
No. of properties Average ToM*


under £100,000 117 225 days
£100,000 to £200,000 429 238 days
£200,000 to £300,000 107 314 days
£300,000 to £400,000 29 346 days
£400,000 to £500,000 7 275 days
£500,000 to £1,000,000 4 191 days
over £1,000,000 0 -

and prices down 13% july08 to july 09

ruggedtoast

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You can believe whatever you like, prices rising, prices falling, indices, anecdotals, whatever. Fire off as many insults as you want to.

Thats not what the thread, or my question, is about, and so I'm not going to get drawn into an argument about any of it.

It's a serious question.

What is the plan b for those that are banking on a crash to buy, if the crash turns out to be over?

There isnt a plan b for the vast majority.

Do you not get it?

What will make you understand?

Here let me put it in bold for your benefit:

Millions of British people are completely priced out of home ownership. They have no plan b. They will rent because they are denied any other choice.

I am not one of them but I still think it is a SCANDAL.

ninky_2

bendix wrote: »

I am neither a bull nor a bear. I am a human being, and i'm tired of these boring debates (usually started by the increasingly tedious Hamish).

i was going to say more or less the same thing myself. (for once).

lostinrates

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So putting aside your own march deadline, if you saw prices fall by 20%, and then rise so the fall was only 13% (as has happened so far), and they kept rising, at what point would you feel the risk of them rising further and you losing all the potential gains from the crash would be too great? 10%? 5%? Or would you let them get back to peak?

The sort of property we are looking at has had larger falls and lower gains than average so far. I think it likely this will not change over winter. Supply might. Not much that was anywhere near ''suitable'' was coming on the market for a long time, and then recent months saw them coming back to market, at much lower prices. If we saw THE property now we'd go ahead now. As I said, we've been close before. (in one case bidding war became silly and n second case the property was too much of a comprimise and sage words from a bear got us talking more and relaised we wanted any property, not this property, and when compounded with planning difficulties and a disappointing location, we decided not to).

Other things happen for us in March (big increase in salary, and an offer to decamp shoud we feel dispondant here) that mean that a comprimise, as opposed to a good property, would not be right for us.

Its the old thing of breaking down averages in to personal situation, innit.

Out,_Vile_Jelly

My "plan" is to continue renting a nice flat in a nice area, to continue saving at least 10% of my take home, and to continue enjoying living in one of the world's great cities- taking every opportunity for travel, culture and socialising whilst living within my means.

I can only buy in London if I become the proud owner of a pokey dump in one of the slum boroughs. I am not desperate enough to "get on the ladder" to take this reduction in quality of life, and will not be goaded into it by dreary dinnerparty conversations, the property-obsessed tabloids, and certainly not by randoms on the internet telling me I've missed some sort of boat.

ninky_2

Out,_Vile_Jelly wrote: »

I can only buy in London if I become the proud owner of a pokey dump in one of the slum boroughs. I am not desperate enough to "get on the ladder" to take this reduction in quality of life, and will not be goaded into it by dreary dinnerparty conversations, the property-obsessed tabloids, and certainly not by randoms on the internet telling me I've missed some sort of boat.

Hey, come and join us. Actually it's not any more of a pokey dump than a property anywhere else in London. Just cos you've got a poggenpol kitchen and live in Maida Vale doesn't make the Victorian dimensions or lack of lift to the fifth floor via the communal hallway of your mansion block (aka block of flats) any more appealing imho.

We're having a fete in the park by us this weekend complete with village fair style cake and veg competitions.......

geoffky

Dan: wrote: »

Good question.

I have a close friend who has been telling me that prices will crash since 2003. He has made his wife and kids wait 6 years for this to happen, and now, at last, he has dicided to buy.

So, if he had bought 6 years ago, he would still not be anywhere near NE, would have paid nearly a quarter off his mortgage and now be taking advantage of the low interest rate to shave several more years off.

What a waste of 6 years.

i don't believe you..i think you have make your friend up.

my friend bought 6 years ago and got a large large mortgage and has just been laid off with 30k of debt.....he is doing well..

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ruggedtoast wrote: »

There isnt a plan b for the vast majority.

Do you not get it?

What will make you understand?

Here let me put it in bold for your benefit:

Millions of British people are completely priced out of home ownership. They have no plan b. They will rent because they are denied any other choice.

I am not one of them but I still think it is a SCANDAL.

Nice rant, but it still doesn't address the question.

Millions of people have always been unable to afford to buy. The percentage of housing occupied by owner/occupiers is at almost 70%, close to an all time high. I personally think this percentage has a;ready peaked, as to get the percentage that high we had to start marketing houses to sub prime people, and look at the mess that caused.

The question is aimed at the bears that waited for a crash because they wanted to get more for their money, ie, a house instead of a flat, or a 2 bed flat instead of a one bed, or could afford to buy but were worried about negative equity. And by all previous accounts anyway, there are a lot of them on these boards.

So again I ask, at what point does losing out on the potential gains become too much to risk?