A serious question for the Bears....

carolt

I can't speak for all bears, but personally, although I am a bear insofar as I think house prices will fall, the reason I'm not currently buying is because it's an inconvenient time for me, not because of my opinions on the future for house prices.

We're looking at secondary schools for my oldest - another year to go, but as we may move to be in the right catchment for our ideal school, we're checking it out now. One advantage of renting is it's easy to move into the catchment areas for the top schools at short notice to secure a place - we did just this at primary level, and we're now visiting 9 potential secondaries - 9! - in the next couple of months, in a variety of areas.

I personally put education a far higher priority than buying a house at a particular point in some theoretical cycle. Until we've decided on our favoured school, and hence location, we're not moving. And wouldn't move mid-school year, so it won't be before next summer.

When we do move, I'm not really fussed if it's buying or renting - if it's an area I'm less familiar with, I might well choose to rent first, before I buy.

To sum up, yes, I would like to buy - but not now, and not urgently. So I don't even have a Plan A, let alone a Plan B, by Hamish's metaphor.

If the housing market has gone up when I wish to move, so be it - I'll cross that bridge when I come to it; if it's gone down - lovely. Saved some money. Not a major factor in my decisions at the moment.

That said, if the loveliest property in any one of several areas came on now at an outrageously cheap price, I'd consider it. Not seeing anything either that eye-catching, or that cheap, however. You never know, but, equally, I'm not holding my breath, either.

chucky

carolt wrote: »

I can't speak for all bears, but personally, although I am a bear insofar as I think house prices will fall, I'm not currently buying because it's an inconvenient time for me. Irrespective of prices.

We're looking at secondary schools for my oldest - another year to go, but as we may move to be in the right catchment for our ideal school, we're checking it out now. o One advantage of renting is it's easy to move into the catchment areas for the top schools at short notice to secure a place - we did just this at primary level, and we're now visiting 9 potential secondaries - 9! - in the next couple of months, in a variety of areas.

I personally put education a far higher priority than buying a house at a particular point in some theoretical cycle. Until we've decided on our favoured school, and hence location, we're not moving. And wouldn't move mid-school year, so it won't be before next summer.

I'm not really fussed if it's buying or renting - if i's an area I'm less familiar with, I might well choose to rent first, before I buy.

To sum up, yes, I would like to buy - but not now, and not urgently. So I don't even have a Plan A, let alone a Plan B, by your metaphor.

If the housing market has gone up, so be it - I'll cross that bridge when I come to it; if it's gone down - lovely. Saved some money. Not a factor in my decisions at the moment.

That said, if the loveliest property in any one several areas came on now at an outrageously cheap price, I'd consider it. Not seeing anything either that eye-catching, or that cheap, however. You never know, but, equally, I'm not holding my breath, either.

a very good post Carol.
i like your planning very much.

LizEstelle

What I want to know is: where is the thread for the 'eagles' (realist-pragmatics) as opposed to the die-hard whingers of either extreme?

Bulls and bears, go take a running jump in the nearest stretch of water deep enough to cover you.

You don't represent society, industry, economics or any remote concept of reality with your tendentious and simplistic positions. You certainly don't represent me.

Please God to silence these prats and that this, or something like it, could be the last word on the matter.

SingleSue

I'm a bear and I don't own....but then I have no wish to own.

So I don't feel like I have missed the boat or have any kind of vested interest, in fact, really I should have a vested interest in prices rising as every drop in property prices hits my inheritance but then I don't count it as mine anyway (seems to worry my parents more that our eventual inheritance is less than it was) but my parents little nest egg to provide for them in their old age, be that care home fees or to release equity/downsize for the round the world cruise that they have always promised themselves.

Cleaver

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Do you have a "Plan B"?

Your post supposes that there is a very sterotypical bunch of people out there who are sitting on a lump of cash and even have a plan A. Many people have no 'plan' as such, they just might not be able to afford a house on their wages, genuinely feel that houses in their area are out of their reach and think it would be best for many if prices came down. That isn't a 'plan', it's just a way of thinking.

There isn't 'bulls' and 'bears'. They don't exist. People may lump themselves in one group, or label others, but it's a misnomer in many ways. On here you have some that own and want prices to rise, people that own who want to see prices rise, people that own that don't care, people who don't own who don't care, people who don't own and are happy renting but think prices should fall, rich people with no mortgages who would still like to see property more affordable for their kids, people who don't own but feel they can soon... the list goes on.

I guess you should your question to those people who have a huge pot of cash, are desperate to buy a house at the cheapest possible and are watching the market for exactly the 'right time'. I don't know if we have many people like that on here though?

Cleaver

LizEstelle wrote: »

What I want to know is: where is the thread for the 'eagles' (realist-pragmatics) as opposed to the die-hard whingers of either extreme?

Bulls and bears, go take a running jump in the nearest stretch of water deep enough to cover you.

I'm inclinded to agree. Can you even be a bear or a bull? There are downward (bear) markets and upward (bull) markets. Then there's a scale with extreme pessimism at one end and extreme optimism at the other, with varying degress in between. Your stance on being optimistic or pessimistic depends on the facts placed in front of you, and you would be a poor judge of facts if you were always one or the other. I therefore don't see how you can always be bullish or always be bearish. And if you are always one or the other then you're not a realist who can take on board information and process it to make a rational judgement or decision. In my world it's possible to be a general optimist and still recognise a bear market and vice versa.

Don't agree with taking a running jump in to deep water though. I quite like a lot of the self-appointed bears and bulls on here any would miss them.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Cleaver wrote: »

I guess you should your question to those people who have a huge pot of cash, are desperate to buy a house at the cheapest possible and are watching the market for exactly the 'right time'. I don't know if we have many people like that on here though?

No, I think it'a a bit more general a category than that.

I think there is a decent size pool of people who have been in a position to buy something, but chose not to as they believed prices would fall and they could get the same property cheaper, or a better property for their money, if they waited.

I don't see that needs a "huge pot of cash"... Just a minimal deposit and the ability to get a mortgage.

Although theres probably quite an interesting thread to be had in seeing who will admit to being "priced out" of mortgages, given the massive increase in deposit requirements and rates for those without huge deposits and spotless credit..... I'd suspect this has prevented many from having any benefit from falling prices at all.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I don't see that needs a "huge pot of cash"... Just a minimal deposit and the ability to get a mortgage.

Although theres probably quite an interesting thread to be had in seeing who will admit to being "priced out" of mortgages, given the massive increase in deposit requirements and rates for those without huge deposits and spotless credit..... I'd suspect this has prevented many from having any benefit from falling prices at all.

Well I am happy to admit that I am priced out. In an expensive-ish area anyway, so not got as much choice. I have happily admitted I am priced out many times, unless of course I wanted to go for a very high multiplier mortgage, or 110+%. Even if I was buying with someone else, we would still be priced out. Hence taking the route I decided to take.

Seems people are even priced out of shared ownership now though around here. 40% newbuilds are going for 110k. And that's only 40% of the property.

Now, considering most people who go for such schemes are families, they would still need £27,500 a year to be able to afford the price. That is without taking into account a deposit.

All that for just 40%.

There are some cheaper homes available, an example is a 1 bed mid terrace home for 107k total price. But, again, you are back then to the single person needing to earn preferably 30k a year. Down here, the average wage sits at just under £18,000 a year.

I really do think you need to look outside your own box, and see that a "minimal deposit" to you, is 5 years worth of saving to someone else.

purch

where is the thread for the 'eagles' (realist-pragmatics) as opposed to the die-hard whingers of either extreme?

We're not particularly interesting, nor are we inclined to have pointless arguments where each side is talking about completely different things, over and over :rolleyes:

macaque_2

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Do you have a "Plan B"?

And what is it?

I'm not meaning this to be a thread about whether or not we have reached bottom, or whether or not prices will rise or fall.

Just a hypothetical thread about what those of you that don't currently own would do if it turns out that the botom was last February, and prices that are now 8.5% higher than then actually keep rising from here.

At what point would you admit defeat, or rather, if prices keep rising at what point what you feel that you can't risk letting them get back to peak prices without you acting and at least realising some of the gains you could have had?

Is there such a point? Or are you willing to let prices get back to peak or higher before you finally buy?

And if so, is it because you have a greater fear of buying and then losing as prices fall, than you have of paying more as prices rise but at least being sure that prices won't fall?

Genuinely curious as to what your motivations are.

Thank you for this question Private Frazer. In response, I don't have a plan B, or a plan A for that matter. Does the passenger on doomed airliner improve his chances of survival by purchasing the seat he is sitting in?

I had hoped that the Jumblies at the helm would have had the sense to try for a belly flop. Sadly they seem bent on a high altitude stall.