Very low offer accepted, should I wait?

Heyman_2

RDB wrote: »

I put a very very low offer in for a lovely old farm house in the country. I saw it on a property auction news letter I get, it didnt even reach its reserve price. I put an offer in even less than that and now its officially under offer.

I was prepared to negotiate but it apears they are accepting it.

Should I wait until next year/the year after for even lower prices?

I dont want to buy now then find the value falls even more.

If you're buying it as a home, you like it and you can afford it (assuming worst case scenarios over the next few years), then what's the problem?

You might wait until next year and find that we still have 0.5% rates (highly likely) and that prices have continued to stagnate/drift upwards - what then? Wait another 12 months?

If you look back over the last 20 years, when would you say a 'bad' time to buy was? At the moment people are pointing to 2006/7 as being a 'peak' but in another 10-15 years it'll probably look like being a 'good' time to have bought.

I think if you're uncertain now, you'll never buy.

whathavewedone

Shouldn't this thread be in the renting, buying and selling part of the forum? You might get a more sympathetic ear from fellow house hunters

Heyman_2

whathavewedone wrote: »

Shouldn't this thread be in the renting, buying and selling part of the forum? You might get a more sympathetic ear from fellow house hunters

It's a good topic of discussion for us actually so I'm sort of glad it's here rather than there.

In any case, I think this thread is more about posturing rather than 'advice' though

whathavewedone

Yeah, I thought the same, that's why I asked to see the link. If it were a genuine request for advice you wouldn't post it here.

whathavewedone

Heyman this is very true. From 1990-1997 those who bought at 1985-1990 prices were pitied. Who wouldn't want to buy a house at those prices now though?

Heyman_2

whathavewedone wrote: »

Heyman this is very true. From 1990-1997 those who bought at 1985-1990 prices were pitied. Who wouldn't want to buy a house at those prices now though?

It's all relative isn't it?

To think that some bears have been calling a crash since 2000-2001. And now that we've had it there's some kind of triumphalism going on.

My friend bought his 3-bedroom house in 2000, against the advice of some who were telling him to wait. He paid £95,000 for it. A similar property is now up for sale, almost 10 years later, at £212,000.

If only he'd waited...... :rolleyes:

RDB

OK its very cheap because its not got permission to be residential yet.

It didnt reach its reserve of 80K and I put an offer in for 60K cash.

Anyway all the info is on the other thread about me trying to get permission to live there.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.html?t=1373841&highlight=tudor&page=13

mewbie_2

Heyman wrote: »

It's all relative isn't it?

To think that some bears have been calling a crash since 2000-2001. And now that we've had it there's some kind of triumphalism going on.

My friend bought his 3-bedroom house in 2000, against the advice of some who were telling him to wait. He paid £95,000 for it. A similar property is now up for sale, almost 10 years later, at £212,000.

If only he'd waited...... :rolleyes:

You make a fair point. But if I could just use those simple figures for my own distorted ends.

The bull case would see the next ten years give a further doubling to 400,000. And the bear case would see a return to the original 'fair' figure of 95k plus inflation (4% a year?). Interestingly if I am sad enough to put those figures into a spreadsheet and pull through to 2020 I get about 200k as the answer.

I don't know whether that proves my point or not.

Heyman_2

mewbie wrote: »

You make a fair point. But if I could just use those simple figures for my own distorted ends.

The bull case would see the next ten years give a further doubling to 400,000. And the bear case would see a return to the original 'fair' figure of 95k plus inflation (4% a year?). Interestingly if I am sad enough to put those figures into a spreadsheet and pull through to 2020 I get about 200k as the answer.

I don't know whether that proves my point or not.

No, I think it's a fair counter-point. I don't expect that price to double again over 10 years for a variety of reasons, not least because wages have not inflated at anywhere near the same amount.

I guess I'm just thinking that people have been calling a crash for almost 10 years, and conceivably someone who listened might actually have been waiting all that time before taking the plunge. Now they're being told to wait even LONGER because, apparently, there's another crash looming 'just around the corner'. But no-one seems to want to put a timescale on it.

Ad (before he got PPR'd) recently said that he thinks he might look to buy in 18 months time. So how long has he been waiting already? What if the market conditions don't look right to him in 18 months? Is he going to spend another 18 months waiting? I just think life's a bit too short for it, is all.

mewbie_2

Heyman wrote: »

What if the market conditions don't look right to him in 18 months? Is he going to spend another 18 months waiting? I just think life's a bit too short for it, is all.

I agree with you. This is one of the tragedies of abnormal HPI. It is a big decision to buy a property, sell a property, move property in normal times. Commitment, vast sums of money, etc. Very very hard for people who might commit to too much, or miss the boat, be priced out, save money, lose money, etc.

Which is why I would like a retun to normal prices, normal price rises, a normal market. Then we can get on with living in the things and stop worrying.