Can I afford a SVR Mortgage.

gman20_2

We all know that at the moment, mortgage deals aren't great for first time buyers.
I've found an offset mortgage with Northernbank called re: pay. It allows a 90% LTV as well which is what I need.
I did some calculations for the next 3 years based on what I'm earning, what the BoE could be at that time, and other factors.
Here are the results:

(Change h++p to http. Forum wont let me post pics or links.)

Year 1
h++p://i27.tinypic.com/1110d91.png

Year 2
h++p://i25.tinypic.com/16k54d4.png

Year 3
h++p://i25.tinypic.com/2hqdpnq.png


Most of the left over money will be kept in my offset account.
Do you think I can afford it?
It's pretty unlikely the BoE rate will be 6.5 within the next year, isn't it?

Edit: I also presume that the banks must understand that a sharp rise back up is going to cripple FTB's who just entered the market.

gman20_2

Can anyone tell me how banks change their own individual base rates?
This mortgage tracks the Northern Bank base rate with +3.29%
At the moment the Northern Banks base rate is 0.5%, the same as BoE's, is it reasonable to presume they will follow the BoEs base rate up?
What factors come into play when a bank wants to change its base rate?
Can they just go "We're down on profits, lets boost our base rate by 0.5%" ?

gman20_2

Even though it doesn't say, nor hint, that Northern Bank don't offer lending outside NI, they don't.
There's no way I can afford it now. !!!!!!, this is so frustrating.