Lloyds: Fifth of mortgage holders in negative equity.

wolvoman

ad9898 wrote: »

TBH I'm seeing no rise in prices, somewhere must be I guess but not anywhere I've looked. New houses of a certain type coming on the market are coming on at the reduced prices that the ones already on are up for. And the only stuff selling is the stuff that's been reduced quite a bit, so some places must really rocketing away, but where ? who knows.

London is driving the increases.
Financial Services are back growing again, banking bonuses are bigger than last year and large amounts of these will get spent on property. London retail sales have outperformed the rest of the country throughout the recession.

Last year it was assumed that this recession would hit service and 'white collar' workers hardest, but it seems to be the reverse.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I still fail to see where house have declined. Apart from a couple of months I already mentioned, but can't be bothered with the obvious argument arising from it.

Taking the NW index, as thats what was used to say house prices were declining in that period....
.

It could be a seasonaly adjusted % fall but not a nominal one.

We have seen it before where a -0.X% as actualy been and £XXX increase.

julieq

They don't post their methodology - the NW figures are just what I could easily find in a tabular form but using those the figure available in December was that at the start of the month, and the value at the end of June is the defined figure; the first is less than the last. It makes more sense to me that they'd do a 6 month study like for like, but unless we know the model used all I can do is explain how there can be the apparent anomaly you complained about, which was because you were looking at a YOY average decline graph and reading it as a price indicator.

Using different figures from different sources will give different results and they may have a different model for valuation of houses, possibly by applying averaged falls to actual borrowed amounts against value as stated in the surveyors report.

The main point though, which has been spectacularly missed, which is that since the changes in that period have been marginal, the effects are marginal and have probably now been reversed anyway. Not a big deal.

julieq

SingleSue wrote: »

Just felt I had to respond to this post...

I have been posting on here for a while now (doesn't time fly!) and I can honestly say I have never been belittled for being female or had any of my posts ignored or made fun of because I am female.

Remember this was in response to Ad getting touchy because I'd asked Graham to operate his brain (I hereby withdraw that request incidentally), and I was pointing out that as part of the heated debate here it's fairly common to get some level of abuse back. You'd hardly call it prevalent but it does happen, it's part of the game really.

Also I suspect my posts aggravate the bears more because I'm debunking a lot of their trusted information sources. It's much easier to pick on a throwaway sarcastic remark than to deal with a reasoned or numerical argument.

Cannon_Fodder

julieq - as you have so much better sources than us, can you please provide a link to the -15% prediction for House Prices by Lloyds/Halifax.

To be clear - not a newpaper repeating something it saw printed somewhere else, without source details.

A real source. Thanks.

Graham_Devon

julieq wrote: »

Also I suspect my posts aggravate the bears more because I'm debunking a lot of their trusted information sources. It's much easier to pick on a throwaway sarcastic remark than to deal with a reasoned or numerical argument.

No, you aggrivate us because of this sort of "Im holier than thou" stance while trying to tell us you are a middle of the road poster, not a bull.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

No, you aggrivate us because of this sort of "Im holier than thou" stance while trying to tell us you are a middle of the road poster, not a bull.

Sorry "Pot, Kettle, Black" did you not read the bear posts for the last year?

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Sorry "Pot, Kettle, Black" did you not read the bear posts for the last year?

I apologise, I forgot you were the innocent victim, like ALL the time.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I apologise, I forgot you were the innocent victim, like ALL the time.

No, I was just pointing out hypocritical it was.

How many times in the last year have we seen gloating bears with "you will llose your house" "soup kitchens"

Seems like some forget that "you reap what you sow"

But I can add I am still blisfully watching the bears have a fit and not entering in to the kind of insults/and harassment and "Im holier than thou" they were portraying last year.:)

julieq

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

julieq - as you have so much better sources than us, can you please provide a link to the -15% prediction for House Prices by Lloyds/Halifax.

To be clear - not a newpaper repeating something it saw printed somewhere else, without source details.

A real source. Thanks.

Well I will if you post an original source for the information in the newspaper article you linked to at the beginning of this article. But in the meantime, if it's OK for you to post newspaper articles, why shouldn't I?

The article you quoted says:

The lender also revised its predictions for house price falls today to 7% or less during 2009, from an initial 15% forecast

Which is clear enough.