Nationwide +1.3 (-6.2 YoY)

IveSeenTheLight

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

07:00 30Jul09 UK House Prices May Rise In 2009 Nationwide


LONDON--There is a "reasonable chance" that U.K. house prices could end the year slightly higher than where they started it, the Nationwide Building Society said Thursday in one of the most upbeat comments on the market since it was throttled by the credit crisis.

I've said before that there is a chance of close to 0% YoY by the end of the year.
Only 5 months to go, better start looking at the christmas shopping

bluey890

I am not looking at selling, so it doesn't really affect me (at the moment).

It is the poorer in society I feel sorry for. Priced out of home ownership, they are forced to either rent or join the long queue for social housing.

Graham_Devon

Well quite an increase, but have to say the bulls got it right, so giving this one to away to you lot

Begining to think that maybe that was it then, and the bears were proved wrong thanks to fiscal policy. I'm still not sure HOW people can afford houses, or HOW we are going to pay all this back.

But in terms of house prices, that doesn't matter really. They are continuing up and it can't be called a spring bounce anymore and not sure it can be called a bull trap anymore.

I just feel sorry for all my friends who have an even worse chance now having struggled for so long as now house prices are lower, they are knocked out by lack of mortgages. It's been a terrible time for these people, and myself, and it don't look like it's going to end yet.

Affordability don't really seem to even enter the equation at the moment, and to be honest, looking at the big jump in these figures, I'm not sure it will for a long time.

ad9898_3

bluey890 wrote: »

It is the poorer in society I feel sorry for. Priced out of home ownership, they are forced to either rent or join the long queue for social housing.

If this were true, I would agree, but in a lot of cases it's not the poor, it's the young who are priced out or forced to take on the debt of their elders to buy a house.

mitchaa

Well well well, come on bears, admit defeat now please:D

7 months into 2009 and the index is showing positive for the year. Not just a blip or a spring bounce, us bulls were actually trying to tell you something;)

Less than 15% now from peak:rotfl:

Buy buy buy NOW.

inspector_monkfish

mitchaa wrote: »

Well well well, come on bears, admit defeat now please:D

7 months into 2009 and the index is showing positive for the year. Not just a blip or a spring bounce, us bulls were actually trying to tell you something;)

Less than 15% now from peak:rotfl:

Buy buy buy NOW.

so how long do you think it will be before we overtake the last peak, seein as this is 'not just a blip' ?

julieq

Dan: wrote: »

They just said on BBC Breakfast the time to buy is now.

The ideal time to buy was probably somewhere around the turn of the year, preferably on a tracker mortgage arranged sometime in September. But hindsight is very easy.

I really don't think there's much that should be read into this rise, and I'm surprised at the level of near capitulation. We are at a point where there is short supply, people are worried about interest rates going up and want to fix, there is a feeling that we have reached the bottom so people are asking themselves "why wait?", there's a little confidence returning in business, and mortgage providers are just showing signs of wanting to lend. Lots of things can work to pull this rise back, and my bet would be on a lengthy period of stagnation (or drops with a slow grind back to current levels).

Anyway, a strengthening market brings its own downfall, which is that rates will tend to increase sooner rather than later which in turn is likely to weaken the market. Interest rate increases make BTL yields drop where currently they are excellent, again this works against increases.

Nothing that was true coming up to the point the market turned is not still true today, and as the bears always tell us the fundamentals are worse now than then.

What this shows us really is that it's very dangerous to try to predict anything as confidentally as the bears have been doing. You do end up a hostage to fortune.

bluey890

ad9898 wrote: »

If this were true, I would agree, but in a lot of cases it's not the poor, it's the young who are priced out or forced to take on the debt of their elders to buy a house.

By saying 'poor', I meant non-homeowners who do not earn a v.good wage.

When including caveats, it doesn't have quite the same ring to it though.
:beer:

Graham_Devon

Slightly derailing the topic. An Economist from Nationwide was on this morning bigging this up, and he was asked about young families ability to afford houses etc, and he didnt have much to say apart from falling house prices are bad for everyone, those people priced out included. (He didnt explain how).

What he did say though, is that the way to make houses affordable to everyone is through real prices and wage inflation, saying this was the problem rather than prices.

It just made me think....how much wage inflation would we need to make houses in general affordable? Or...if stagnation took hold today, how long in real terms would it take for wages to catch up?

Would the already priced out for 10 years generation, be priced out for another ten years while wage inflation catches up?

There could be some serious problems on the horizon if people are 35-45 years old before taking on a 25 year mortgage.

bluey890

As people (Ad) are getting pedantic I will stick to sound bites.
The one for this headline is.
Bears proven to be speaking Bull.