Housing: still being strangled by the credit crunch

carolt

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100000349/housing-still-being-strangled-by-the-credit-crunch/

Some are characterising today’s Land Registry data on the housing market as a sign that, finally, the worst is over for property. They point to the fact that for the first time since January 2008, this, the most authoritative measure of house prices in Britain (since it’s based on actual transactions as opposed to mortgage approvals), has staged a month-on-month rise.


But don’t be fooled by this tiny (0.1pc) increase. In fact, the real story behind the figures (which ought to be accessible from the Land Reg site, but it’s so appallingly slow at the moment that you shouldn’t wait up for them to load) is the picture they paint of a completely moribund housing market. Activity has fallen to almost unprecedented lows as families struggle against the combined forces of the recession, with its rising unemployment and falling profits, and the credit crunch, which prevents them from getting hold of a mortgage at a reasonable rate.


Summer is supposed to be boom time for the property market. But, according to Nick Hopkinson of Property Portfolio Rescue (PPR), the total number of transactions - at 36,233 in April 2009 - is 75pc lower than the average summer sales over the past decade, not to mention 42pc down since April 2008, at which point the property market was already struggling.

System

The LR bounce has only just started, and the number of transactions has increased significantly since April.

Lazy article written by someone currently renting.

nearlynew

The crash continues.

This time next year, average prices will be lower YOY.

Great news.

skap7309

carolt wrote: »

Summer is supposed to be boom time for the property market. But, according to Nick Hopkinson of Property Portfolio Rescue (PPR), the total number of transactions - at 36,233 in April 2009 - is 75pc lower than the average summer sales over the past decade, not to mention 42pc down since April 2008, at which point the property market was already struggling.

Joeskeppi - you cannot hide from the above, yes for the time being it is stabilizing but i would seriously forget a steady rise over the next few years, infact i strongly predict it heads back the other way within the next 6 months. Transactions may have increased, however it was from a shocking low and there is still a monumental climb before we can see sustained price rises. The winter months will be intreguing.

System

skap7309 wrote: »

Joeskeppi - you cannot hide from the above, yes for the time being it is stabilizing but i would seriously forget a steady rise over the next few years, infact i strongly predict it heads back the other way within the next 6 months. Transactions may have increased, however it was from a shocking low and there is still a monumental climb before we can see sustained price rises. The winter months will be intreguing.

I'm not trying to hide, I'm pointing out it's 3 months out of date. Why is it 3 months out of date? Because the writer is a biased little cretin who's bitter and twisted that he's paying someone elses mortgage.

chucky

it all depends on how you look at it.

the last few months have been virtually flat across England & Wales and increased in the South-East. now the Halifax/Nationwide positive spring bounce numbers from the last few months come in it will probably increase by a good few percent.

even if it drops after those months it may not be lower than it is now in many areas - have to wait and see.

btw not that it's an indication but tomorrows Nationwide numbers are predicted to be +0.3% - so much for those that prices would drop after Spring.
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?do=geteventinfo&day=2009-7-30&c=2

[IMG]http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/houseprices/housepriceindex/report/default.asp?g=1&gt=1&a=E&W-ALL&ac=South East&s=01 March 2009&e=01 June 2009&t=4[/IMG]

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I think it's safe to say that the credit crunch is still having a large effect, mortgage approvals though better than they have been are still 50% down on what is considered normal, and that's in boom times and crashes (90's crash still saw 80k+ approvals). The issue is that securitiasation on the scale we saw is dead and buried and we all know that

2007 prices + 100,000+ mortgage approvals = meltdown.

So it's safe to say that one side of the equation has to give if the otherside is to see the light of day again. My view is that both are, and will continue to take a hit.

2009 prices + 47500 mortgage approvals = stability (albeit with large amounts of 'thin air' money being thrown at it, which is unlikely to persist)

Pobby

Joeskeppi wrote: »

I'm not trying to hide, I'm pointing out it's 3 months out of date. Why is it 3 months out of date? Because the writer is a biased little cretin who's bitter and twisted that he's paying someone elses mortgage.

What a very rude person you are.

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Joeskeppi wrote: »

The LR bounce has only just started, and the number of transactions has increased significantly since April.

Lazy article written by someone currently renting.

Even if that were true, and I have no idea if it is, it would be a small amount of balance to the huge amount of VI in the media and government who waded into BTL when it was too late.

Graham_Devon

Joeskeppi wrote: »

I'm not trying to hide, I'm pointing out it's 3 months out of date. Why is it 3 months out of date? Because the writer is a biased little cretin who's bitter and twisted that he's paying someone elses mortgage.

Is this fact? Or have you just made it up to rubbish the story?

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Joeskeppi wrote: »

Because the writer is a biased little cretin

Plenty of them in the media/government, you're lucky....... 95% of them sit firmly on your side of the argument.