Inflation - Interest Rates

ad44downey

Dan: wrote: »

You want to stick that info in your siginture chucky..

chucky's talking to himself again - first sign of madness that. :rotfl:

chucky

ad44downey wrote: »

chucky's talking to himself again - first sign of madness that. :rotfl:

right on cue Carol - you're alternate identities are out...

have a good night... husband not around?? :rotfl:

mbga9pgf

Dan: wrote: »

You want to stick that info in your siginture chucky. It seems no matter how many times you say it, the usual mob choose to completely ignore the data and focus on the 1990s recession.

Its because his arguement is bollox - you cant compare a time where we had 12%+ pay rises and say the property didnt lose value the fact is, it did, against everything else!

prices stayed level, yes, the value of property dropped - FACT.

chucky

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Its because his arguement is bollox - you cant compare a time where we had 12%+ pay rises and say the property didnt lose value the fact is, it did, against everything else!

prices stayed level, yes, the value of property dropped - FACT.

actually inflation was around 6% and dropping quick coming out of the 80s recession... i'll leave that with you...

i bet my post doesn't get thanked by the HPC ghetto - not what you wanted to hear?

mbga9pgf

You need to check your facts...

979 - 1982 RECESSION. UK enters recession before the rest of world. Tight fiscal & monetary policy - interest rates at 17%, money supply targets 6- 10% and government expend. cuts of £3.5bn. announced for '80-'81. "Winter of Discontent" - end of pay policy - 29m working days lost through strikes (largest annual total since general strike). Government pays large public sector pay increases as recommended by Clegg Commission. Introduction of Tax & Price Index in Aug.'79 and in Oct.' 79 removal of exchange controls. 1980 Inflation peaks at 20% mid-year. Unemployment. increasing fast, tops 2m late '80. Attained self-sufficiency in oil. Interest rates start to come down - MLR reduced to 16% in July and 14% in Nov. Sterling over-valued - reaches peak £1 = $2.39 at end of year. Effective exch. rate up 18% since'79. NEGATIVE growth. 1981 Inflation down to 12%, continued NEGATIVE growth. Investment down 11 % since '79. Sterling dropped below $2 mid-year as USA takes the monetarist lead with interest rates peaking at 14%. Effective exchange rate down 11% from 1980 peak. Record surplus on balance of payments account of £6.Sbn due to high ER and NSO surplus. MLR down to 12%. EEC budget refunds of £700m and £900m in 1980-81.
Start of govt's privatisation plans - Nov.'81 sale of half Cable & Wireless (oversubscribed 6 times), Feb.'82 Sale of Amersham International (over- subscribed 23 times), Nov.'82 sale of 51% of Britoil (under-subscribed 5 times).
Government claws back much of '79 tax reduction by not indexing personal allowances, continued fiscal contraction to reduce the PSBR. Aug.'81 - Changes in monetary management, RAR abandoned, MLR suspended, new arrangements for B of E's open-market operations introduced. 1982 Inflation continues to drop, unemployment to rise. Growth rate of GDP recovers slightly. £ continues to depreciate against $, whilst effective ER stabilises at '81 level. Balance of payment's surplus of £4.6bn for year. Bankruptcies of firms at record level of 11,131 in 1982. NSO production up to 2m barrels a day. PSBR down to 3.8% of GDR Task force sets sail to the Falklands in April - initial cost of war to government - £800m. Substantially more over the long-term. 1983 RECOVERY? Re-election of Tory/monetarist government Growth of money supply inside target ranges for first time in 4 years. Jan.'83 - inflation below 5% and unemployment. tops 3m. £ goes below $1.50. Balance of payments falls into deficit on current account. First ever manufacturing deficit. Manufacturing output 15% below'79 level. Back to positive growth while rest of world is still in recession. Sept.'83 Start of YTS at cost of £1bn to government Nov.'83: Start of miners strike over pit closures (to last for a year).

Compare those years, together with rates of inflation, with the real house price graph, you are completely wrong chucky.



Nationwide Nominals:

Q3 1978 841.6 15,912 22.7 Q4 1978 889.7 16,823 27.9 Q1 1979 941.1 17,793 28.7 Q2 1979 1008.9 19,075 31.6 Q3 1979 1083.5 20,485 28.7 Q4 1979 1161.8 21,966 30.6 Q1 1980 1199.4 22,677 27.4 Q2 1980 1234.8 23,348 22.4 Q3 1980 1249.7 23,628 15.3 Q4 1980 1242.8 23,497 7.0 Q1 1981 1255.1 23,730 4.6 Q2 1981 1274.5 24,098 3.2 Q3 1981 1279.3 24,188 2.4 Q4 1981 1258.7 23,798 1.3 Q1 1982 1278.7 24,177 1.9 Q2 1982 1305.2 24,679 2.4 Q3 1982 1320.6 24,969 3.2 Q4 1982 1352.9 25,580 7.5 Q1 1983 1391.4 26,307 8.8 Q2 1983 1448.4 27,386 11.0 Q3 1983 1490.2 28,175 12.8 Q4 1983 1513.9 28,623 11.9

chucky

here's where i got it from
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/HistoricalInflation.aspx?dsInflation_currentPage=2

coming into recession it was high - 1982 coming out of recession when house prices rose inflation was going down. that's contrary to what you were saying.

ad9898_3

chucky wrote: »

i bet my post doesn't get thanked by the HPC ghetto - not what you wanted to hear?

Any need for that ?, one thing I'm seeing on here lately is the bulls are taking there new found fortune of positive house price news/spin and throwing it in the face of every bear on here, whether they be a nutter or a moderate one. It's not a good look. With the economy in the state it's in I'd be very surprised if we don't see further falls.

mbga9pgf

coming into recession it was high - 1982 coming out of recession when house prices rose inflation was going down. that's contrary to what you were saying.

Thats not my point, my point is, house values fell. I agree, prices did not, but funny old thing, we had a tory government, a lot of bitter medicine was dealt out after yet another catastrophic labour government, and the economy recovered quickly.

Your arguement that nominal prices stayed level, values fell is a bit dumb. Thats my point.

If I was getting 20% interest on my savings and house prices were only going up 8% annualy, I would be pretty happy to be honest.

chucky

mbga9pgf wrote: »

Thats not my point, my point is, house values fell. I agree, prices did not, but funny old thing, we had a tory government, a lot of bitter medicine was dealt out after yet another catastrophic labour government, and the economy recovered quickly.

Your arguement that nominal prices stayed level, values fell is a bit dumb. Thats my point.

If I was getting 20% interest on my savings and house prices were only going up 8% annualy, I would be pretty happy to be honest.

we're virtually agreeing with each other - do you realise that?

prices and nominal values increased coming out of recession with low inflation after 1982 - that's my argument with you.

i've never said that for the 70s or 90s but just the 80s - you initially said that was bollox. i've just proved it's not

chucky

ad9898 wrote: »

Any need for that ?, one thing I'm seeing on here lately is the bulls are taking there new found fortune of positive house price news/spin and throwing it in the face of every bear on here, whether they be a nutter or a moderate one. It's not a good look. With the economy in the state it's in I'd be very surprised if we don't see further falls.

that's because they've got in their face for the last two years - they reply and people don't like it now... right or wrong, if people (not you) don't like receiving it they shouldn't give it

yes - further falls are quite possible. can we agree on that?

ps. i thought that you were sure of further falls not "I'd be very surprised"