Inflation - Interest Rates

Thrugelmir

Really2 wrote: »

But it still means loans are being over paid, so the point of most being on IO and not repaying is simply not true.

If we averaged it to £3 billion a month in overpayments. What is that as a % of £1,227 billion ?

If all the £3 billion is all relent. At say an average mortgage advance of £125,000k. Its only enough to fund 24,000 mortgages.

The point that I am making is although the figures are large. They have to be put into context. The debt overhang in this country is vast. Will take many years to come back into balance.

pickles110564

ad9898 wrote: »

After thinking, I deleted my first response to this sarcastic flippant comment, just !!!!!! is your problem ?, you either believe it or you don't, if you don't move along. Jesus this forum is becoming so full of sh*t lately, what with the !!!!!! from yesterday.

Things not going to plan Ad?
Dont worry mate even you did not expect a 75% house price crash, or did you?

ad9898_3

pickles110564 wrote: »

Things not going to plan Ad?
Dont worry mate even you did not expect a 75% house price crash, or did you?

Things are fine thanks pickles. As far as plans go, it's well documented on this forum that my future house purchase does not require anymore crash than has already happened, in fact even if prices went back to 2007 I could buy what I wanted outright in 6 years. I don't think even The Wilsons or Ajay expect that to happen, and if it did, I will be getting a one way ticket to Oz....... so all bases covered, but thanks again for your concern.

mewbie_2

Am I right in thinking CPI is only just below the 2% target? Despite the recession. Therefore when a bit of recovery comes it is surely likely that inflation will reappear and back above target we go. There's only so much that firms can keep cutting in order to survive, and basic commodities - partly thanks to Asia - are not getting cheaper.

So one scenario may be - recovery in Asia, imported inflation, especially against a weak pound (thanks to QE and huge debt burden, people believing we can't pay our debts) - therefore - higher interest rates.

I am not sure when rates were briefly 15% that our economy was in any deeper trouble?

My outlook would be prolonged downturn, cuts in spending, higher taxes, higher interest rates - oh and lower house prices of course. How can we have a bubble and not a crash? Makes no sense to me.

bluey890

ad9898 wrote: »

Things are fine thanks pickles. As far as plans go, it's well documented on this forum that my future house purchase does not require anymore crash than has already happened, in fact even if prices went back to 2007 I could buy what I wanted outright in 6 years. I don't think even The Wilsons or Ajay expect that to happen, and if it did, I will be getting a one way ticket to Oz....... so all bases covered, but thanks again for your concern.

If house prices go through the roof and the pound devalues against OZ dollar both your bases are in trouble.
If the bears are right and the UK becomes a Weimar Republic you're screwed?

julieq

nearlynew wrote: »

As a "peak-oiler", I like ad's signiture.

Perhaps he should just drop the "old" though, eh?

It's from the 1970s in fact, where it was stated by Judith Hann in Tomorrow's World, but misquoted. The true quote should be:

My father rode a camel,
I drive a Rolls Royce,
My son flies a jet aircraft,
His son will ride a nuclear powered aluminium autogyro

Raymond Baxter proceeded to demonstrate the autogyro which was designed to solve the 1974 energy crisis, but sadly due to a problem in the directional stability matrix he span off gracefully skywards in accelerating spirals into oblivion, an incident later famously quoted by George Lucas in the first (later fourth) Star Wars film.

It was about this point I lost faith in peoples' ability to foresee future events, even when they are ex Spitfire pilots and have really convincing graphs.

nearlynew

According to the inspector in post #20, it was this guy

ad9898_3

bluey890 wrote: »

If house prices go through the roof and the pound devalues against OZ dollar both your bases are in trouble.
If the bears are right and the UK becomes a Weimar Republic you're screwed?

In normal conditions I agree, even now the Oz $ is very strong against the £, I have some very close family ties out there though so luckily I can rely on a little help if/when I want/need to leave the UK.

chucky

mewbie wrote: »

Am I right in thinking CPI is only just below the 2% target? Despite the recession. Therefore when a bit of recovery comes it is surely likely that inflation will reappear and back above target we go. There's only so much that firms can keep cutting in order to survive, and basic commodities - partly thanks to Asia - are not getting cheaper.

So one scenario may be - recovery in Asia, imported inflation, especially against a weak pound (thanks to QE and huge debt burden, people believing we can't pay our debts) - therefore - higher interest rates.

I am not sure when rates were briefly 15% that our economy was in any deeper trouble?

My outlook would be prolonged downturn, cuts in spending, higher taxes, higher interest rates - oh and lower house prices of course. How can we have a bubble and not a crash? Makes no sense to me.

mid 1970s recession, no drop in house prices
early 1980s recession back to peak in less than a year
1990s recession 6 yearsish return to peak

this recession has less to do with the 1990s recession than any of the others... take your pick

Dan:_4

chucky wrote: »

mid 1970s recession, no drop in house prices
early 1980s recession back to peak in less than a year
1990s recession 6 yearsish return to peak

this recession has less to do with the 1990s recession than any of the others... take your pick

You want to stick that info in your siginture chucky. It seems no matter how many times you say it, the usual mob choose to completely ignore the data and focus on the 1990s recession.