Business leaders fear "new" recession.

mbga9pgf

I disagree. I think the only thing that matters is the raw data. People have a false thing called hope. reality is, we are a way away from the stage where "positive thinking" can get us out of this. GDP may be laggy, as with Unemployment, but until I see real signs of a recovery in the economy, with real reasons for sustained future growth other than government bailouts, I am not too worried about staying out the housing market. Unemployment is one of the most useful metrics when assessing a suitable time to get into the market. Whilst unemployment rises, you have a good 6 months of house price falls to follow. Check previous crashes to correlate this. Can anyone see unemployment swiftly recovering in the UK? Nope, thought not.

We still have a significant and painful reshaping of the economic landscape to come in the UK, and no amount of wishful thinking will change this fact.

DaddyBear

A new recession? I wasn't aware that the current one had ended or has the BBC managed to spin the recent GDP figures into a recovery.

bo_drinker

The 2 nd dip will be when the clocks change nearer winter and then things will be p1ss poor until the election and then when Dave gets in things will ............................ be no different as he along with Gordy hasn't a clue what to do to get us out of this mess in the short term(read 5 years minimum) reality he will cut everything to the bone or as close as possible and it won't make a thing change, we're in deep !!!!!!.

amcluesent

>The 2 nd dip will be when the clocks change nearer winter and then things will be p1ss poor until the election<

The banks are now just getting round to 'fessing up that £300 BILLION on loans on commercial property are under water. Who know what proportion should be written off?

This isn't a 'W' recession, we've just seen the 1st of maybe five lurches downwards until we finish 80%+ off the peak if 1929-1933 is anything to go by.

wymondham

DaddyBear wrote: »

A new recession? I wasn't aware that the current one had ended or has the BBC managed to spin the recent GDP figures into a recovery.

same here!! - recessions last a fair while in my experience ... this one is only months old, or is this a 'modern' recession??

tomterm8

wymondham wrote: »

same here!! - recessions last a fair while in my experience ... this one is only months old, or is this a 'modern' recession??

Erm, I though an 'normal' length recession was between 5 - 8 quarters, and we've already been in recession for... 4 quarters... gosh, doesn't time fly.

Graham_Devon

tomterm8 wrote: »

Erm, I though an 'normal' length recession was between 5 - 8 quarters, and we've already been in recession for... 4 quarters... gosh, doesn't time fly.

3 quarters officially.

Really2

Is it me or does it look like 5 on the ONS site. (5 negative quarters, or do the first two get knocked off before the "official"?)

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/images/charts/192.gif

Graham_Devon

Really2 wrote: »

Is it me or does it look like 5 on the ONS site. (5 negative quarters, or do the first two get knocked off before the "official"?)

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/images/charts/192.gif

Quarter 2 2008 was recently revised. So our "official" recession started in Quarter 4 2008.

I don't think the start of the recession was ever revised.

Really2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Quarter 2 2008 was recently revised. So our "official" recession started in Quarter 4 2008.

I don't think the start of the recession was ever revised.

But when it officialy starts it is surly 6 months old. Otherwise you could have two negative quarters then the following quarter positive and you would have never been in recession.

Can some one confirm that when a recession is confirmed or "official" is it already 6 months old? (EG the minimum length of a recession being 6 moths)