UK GDP shrinks much more than expected in Q2

inspector_monkfish

09:30 24Jul09 INSTANT VIEW 1-UK GDP shrinks much more than expected in Q2

LONDON, July 24 - Britain's economy shrank more
than twice as fast as expected in the second quarter to register
its biggest annual decline since comparable records began,
official data showed on Friday.

The figures are likely to quash hopes of a speedy recovery
and boost expectations that the Bank of England may add more
stimulus to the economy which has now shrunk by 5.7 percent
since the first quarter of last year.

*******************************************************

KEY FIGURES FOR PRELIMINARY Q2 GDP

Q3 08 Q2 08 FCAST
% QQ -0.8 -2.4 -0.3
% YY -5.6 -4.9 -5.2

KEY POINTS

- The ONS said Britain's economy had now shrunk by 5.7
percent since Q1 2008, close to the 6.4 percent decline
registered in the 1980s recession.

- Biggest annual GDP drop since comparable records began in
1955

- Biggest annual drop in construction sector since records
began 1948

- Weakest annual increase in government and other services
since Q4 2004

- Biggest annual drop in services sector since records began
in 1955

inspector_monkfish

09:34 24Jul09 EUR/GBP: Worst UK GDP Since Records Began

London, July 24.

The worst UK GDP release since the series began in 1955 and this should fuel further EUR/GBP gains, with macro buyers pushing the cross into the 0.8630s following the -0.8% Q/Q & -5.6% Y/Y Q2 publication. Expect continued stabs higher as the session progresses, with the focus returning to the .8699 previous failure highs and .8700 optionality should the single currency manage to eke out further gains into next week.

inspector_monkfish

09:34 24Jul09 MARKET TALK: Sterling Drops On Weak 2Q GDP Print


0834 GMT - GBP/USD drops half a cent to 1.6460 after 2Q GDP
disappointed at -0.8% against expectations of a 0.3% fall. EUR/GBP is at the
day's high of 0.8630. (GST)

inspector_monkfish

Anyone majorly surprised these numbers?
Can't say I am.

purch

Anyone majorly surprised these numbers?

No

But I can think of quite a few, who will be over the moon :rolleyes:

inspector_monkfish

purch wrote: »

No

But I can think of quite a few, who will be over the moon :rolleyes:

its a big reality check for everyone i think!

Graham_Devon

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

Anyone majorly surprised these numbers?
Can't say I am.

Yes, I am.

I would have been surprised if we had been above 0%. However, I was expecting around 0.3%, given all the talk about houses selling, high streets booming, manufacturing doing great.

0.8% is much more than I expected, and it will no doubt be revised down later on.

I don't think anyone is going to be happy, I'm certainly not, it's just a figure. But I do think this somewhat suggests that no matter how many good stories we post up, the reality, which I have always banged on and on about, is somewhat different.

Even I was begining to be taken in by all the optimism, hence my shock at the actual reality of where we are today.....and lets not forget, this is with every possible stimulant that we can just about afford being used.

inspector_monkfish

Graham_Devon wrote: »

0.8% is much more than I expected, and it will no doubt be revised down later on.
QUOTE]

How can you say that?

ad9898_3

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

Anyone majorly surprised these numbers?
Can't say I am.

I can't believe anyone would think that at this time we would start a recovery, there absolutely no concrete fundamentals to support such a view, any 'recovery' that people feel they have witnessed so far, whether it be in the housing market or the economy has a whole is purely false, it is a bounce supported only by borrowed money that at some stage will have to be paid back.

A double whammy is on the horizon, soon the borrowed money will stop, causing a marked slowdown, then it will have to be paid back, at a time when we can least afford it............... bottom of the market:rotfl:, forget it, we have merely fallen off the cliff onto a ledge, that will crumble when the borrowed money stops, then it's the next leg down.

Just to edit, I am not one to 'revel' in bad news, I have a job and outgoings just like all other members of this board, the difference is I'm not blinded by the subterfuge that is being created either by the media or government, it's much better to look straight at the problem and try and find a solution than simply bury my head and say 'there is no problem and everything will soon be fine again'.

Graham_Devon

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

Graham_Devon wrote: »

0.8% is much more than I expected, and it will no doubt be revised down later on.
QUOTE]

How can you say that?

Call it a hunch.

inspector_monkfish

Graham_Devon wrote: »

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

Call it a hunch.

oh, ok.

it could always be revised better ..... or worse :cool: